Time to Move: Scoreboard watching for August

[NatiRedGals]

Big Sal owes a win

[Ren Deagle]

The next week is a key week for the Reds. While the Brewers and the Padres have easy looking schedules, the Reds have to play the Braves and the Phillies. Those two teams are in the playoff hunt, and the Reds need to win both series.

[Red Raindog]

Brewers lost again today



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[WildcatFan]

Your Cincinnati Reds started their August with a resounding win over the Mets, kicking off what’s going to be a really important stretch if this team has any shot at overtaking San Diego (4 back) or even Milwaukee (7 back) for a playoff spot. Nineteen of the next 20 games are against teams with a losing record; I want to see them go 21-8 through this stretch and really close those gaps. The opponents through Sept. 2 are:

Cincinnati (29 games)
7 games vs Miami
4 games vs Pittsburgh (4-0)
3 games vs Atlanta
3 games vs Philly
3 games vs Cubs
3 games vs Milwaukee
3 games vs St Louis
2 games vs Minnesota (1-1)
1 game vs Cleveland
Total: 5-1

San Diego (26 games)
10 games vs Arizona (2-1)
3 games vs Colorado
3 games vs Philly
3 games vs Miami
3 games vs Dodgers
2 games vs Oakland (1-1)
2 games vs Angels
Total: 3-2

Milwaukee (29 games)
7 games vs San Francisco (1-2)
6 games vs Pittsburgh (2-1)
4 games vs Cubs
3 games vs St Louis
3 games vs Washington
3 games vs Cincinnati
3 games vs Minnesota
Total: 3-3

Pretty good first week. I wish the Reds had taken both from Minnesota, but I'm getting greedy about beating up on these bad teams. Gained two games on Milwaukee (5 back) and 1.5 games on San Diego (2.5 back). This is the toughest week of the month by far, but the ballclub is clicking.

[cumberlandreds]

The next week is a key week for the Reds. While the Brewers and the Padres have easy looking schedules, the Reds have to play the Braves and the Phillies. Those two teams are in the playoff hunt, and the Reds need to win both series.

Don't forget the one game in Cleveland today. Huge week. Reds need to at least tread water this week. Schedule lightens up considerably after this week.

[Kilgore_Trout]

Pretty good first week. I wish the Reds had taken both from Minnesota, but I'm getting greedy about beating up on these bad teams. Gained two games on Milwaukee (5 back) and 1.5 games on San Diego (2.5 back). This is the toughest week of the month by far, but the ballclub is clicking.

I think 4-3 over these next 7 games is reasonable, and it would be difficult to be upset with that. But the way this team is playing, I’m feeling like 5-2 is where we’ll end up.

[Chip R]

We're going to feel real dirty for those 7 games the Cubs and Cardinals have to play the Brewers.

[Mitri]

Padres already down 5-0 to the Marlins in a west-coast day game. Sure would be nice to get a full game back from them.

[Mitri]

Padres lose. Ryan Weathers with his 3rd straight appearance giving up at least 6 ER.

Padreszone in doomsday mode tonight.

[Falls City Beer]

Reds choking it away.

(Bullpen arms in the off-season this time).

[Powel Crosley]

Brewers already up 7-0 on the Cubs after 2 innings.

[Mitri]

I think it's time to admit that the Brewers are a good team. They ain't backing down.

Padres have a very soft underbelly toward the back of their rotation and early bullpen guys. And a more difficult schedule.

[UKFlounder]

That is true, but they are lucky enough that no other team in their division cares yo win this year.

Look at the Reds - everybody knows they need new bullpen arms to improve that group, but here they are in August letting the same guys who have failed all year fail yet again. Sims is a bad pitcher, yet in a situation to win the game they send him out there because they did not go out and improve on his position. Just keep letting him pitch and kept letting him fail.

Props to Milwaukee for taking advantage of their division.

And the Padres have shown dominance over the Reds this year.

I think it's time to admit that the Brewers are a good team. They ain't backing down.

Padres have a very soft underbelly toward the back of their rotation and early bullpen guys. And a more difficult schedule.

[mth123]

This Reds team has been fun to watch. Jesse Winker has moved to another level and provides hope for a long term offensive centerpiece. Jonathon India and Tyler Stephenson have renewed hope for the future. Nick Castellanos is having a career year that the Reds have been riding and nothing has been more fun to watch than the resurgence of Joey Votto. The Reds have climbed into contender mode this year, but they still have a few steps to take.

The teams the Reds are competing with Have run differentials of +103 (Milwaukee) and +101 (San Diego) The Reds are a good ways below them at +13. The primary difference is runs allowed. Pitching and defense. The Brewers have allowed 423 runs and the Padres have allowed 453. The Reds have allowed 561. The bullpen has been a lot of that, but not all of it. Castillo has had a dominant stretch for a couple months, but his ERA sits at 4.53. Sonny Gray's ERA isn't much better at 4.40. Jeff Hoffman started 11 games and his ERA is 4.44. So 3 of 5 starts through the rotation, we're getting back end starter numbers and then it gets turned over to a bullpen that is among the worst in baseball. Wade Miley's unexpected Ace season has compensated a bit. On Defense, the Brewers are 8th in DRS at 39. The Padres are 17th at 9 and the Reds are 26th at -24. That's a 63 run difference between the Brewers and the Reds. That would make up about 6 of those 8 games the Reds are behind. The 33 run difference in DRS with the Padres accounts for 3.5 of the 4.5 games that the Reds are behind.

The defense and bullpen have improved a little with Suarez off of SS (now we need to get him off of 3B as well) but he's not much better at 3B. Suarez has a -8 DRS at SS and a -5 at 3B. Jonathon India has improved a lot and looks like a very good second baseman to me, but his early struggles leave him with -5 at 2B. Tyler Naquin has been almost as bad as Suarez with -7 in CF and -3 in RF and Castellanos and Winker are at -5 each. Add -2 from Nick Senzel in CF and -2 from Votto at 1B and we can see that the things that have undermined this team are mostly the things we all said would before the season started. Shaky gloves in the corners, an unsettled SS position, lack of a true CF and and a tryout camp for several months in the bullpen. The surprises have been Suarez and to a lesser extent Senzel's complete lack of offense, but that has been more than made up by career years from Winker and Castellanos, Votto's return to elite status and the arrivals of India and Stephenson.

So yeah, its the bullpen, but its not just the bullpen. The Reds have seemingly fixed SS with Farmer and Barrero coming and Jonathon India has improved a lot at 2B. 3b could be OK if Moose is the man there. I'd say this team's biggest need is a starting CF. Replacing Castellanos offense will be a concern, but if the Reds are going to add one OF over the winter, I hope its a legit all around CF. The returning OF, Aquino, Senzel etc can duke it out for PT in RF.

[Assembly Hall]

This Reds team has been fun to watch. Jesse Winker has moved to another level and provides hope for a long term offensive centerpiece. Jonathon India and Tyler Stephenson have renewed hope for the future. Nick Castellanos is having a career year that the Reds have been riding and nothing has been more fun to watch than the resurgence of Joey Votto. The Reds have climbed into contender mode this year, but they still have a few steps to take.

The teams the Reds are competing with Have run differentials of +103 (Milwaukee) and +101 (San Diego) The Reds are a good ways below them at +13. The primary difference is runs allowed. Pitching and defense. The Brewers have allowed 423 runs and the Padres have allowed 453. The Reds have allowed 561. The bullpen has been a lot of that, but not all of it. Castillo has had a dominant stretch for a couple months, but his ERA sits at 4.53. Sonny Gray's ERA isn't much better at 4.40. Jeff Hoffman started 11 games and his ERA is 4.44. So 3 of 5 starts through the rotation, we're getting back end starter numbers and then it gets turned over to a bullpen that is among the worst in baseball. Wade Miley's unexpected Ace season has compensated a bit. On Defense, the Brewers are 8th in DRS at 39. The Padres are 17th at 9 and the Reds are 26th at -24. That's a 63 run difference between the Brewers and the Reds. That would make up about 6 of those 8 games the Reds are behind. The 33 run difference in DRS with the Padres accounts for 3.5 of the 4.5 games that the Reds are behind.

The defense and bullpen have improved a little with Suarez off of SS (now we need to get him off of 3B as well) but he's not much better at 3B. Suarez has a -8 DRS at SS and a -5 at 3B. Jonathon India has improved a lot and looks like a very good second baseman to me, but his early struggles leave him with -5 at 2B. Tyler Naquin has been almost as bad as Suarez with -7 in CF and -3 in RF and Castellanos and Winker are at -5 each. Add -2 from Nick Senzel in CF and -2 from Votto at 1B and we can see that the things that have undermined this team are mostly the things we all said would before the season started. Shaky gloves in the corners, an unsettled SS position, lack of a true CF and and a tryout camp for several months in the bullpen. The surprises have been Suarez and to a lesser extent Senzel's complete lack of offense, but that has been more than made up by career years from Winker and Castellanos, Votto's return to elite status and the arrivals of India and Stephenson.

So yeah, its the bullpen, but its not just the bullpen. The Reds have seemingly fixed SS with Farmer and Barrero coming and Jonathon India has improved a lot at 2B. 3b could be OK if Moose is the man there. I'd say this team's biggest need is a starting CF. Replacing Castellanos offense will be a concern, but if the Reds are going to add one OF over the winter, I hope its a legit all around CF. The returning OF, Aquino, Senzel etc can duke it out for PT in RF.

I blame the bullpen...