Turn Off Ads?
Page 23 of 36 FirstFirst ... 1319202122232425262733 ... LastLast
Results 331 to 345 of 529

Thread: Elly De La Cruz

  1. #331
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    9,972

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Here's the thing. When you make contact around 77% of the time, and 33% of the time you make contact you get a hit (.330 BABIP), you will have a .254 BA. And then you add a 7% walk rate, and you have about a .330 OBP.

    With his crazy power, speed, and defense, that is a really solid player. But it's not Eric Davis, and maybe not a superstar. But pretty darn good, I wouldn't be disappointed. But I think it's worth setting expectations because plate disciple seems like one that is really hard for some to learn.

    So there is always room for improvement and seasoning.
    The math is a bit more than that, but you're not wrong about how it plays out. Right now, De La Cruz' Batting Average is over-the-top driven by BABIP (MiLB career .397 BABIP). That's unsustainable, which brings your overall point into play. I don't give a crap about strikeout volume, but there's no getting away from the fact that high K rates do suppress base hit volume. From 2011 through this season, only four qualified hitters (Jorge Alfaro, Domingo Santana, Franmil Reyes, and Tyler O'Neill) with K rates =/>30% have posted BA's above .250, with .259 being the high water mark.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...2-31&sort=10,d

    O'Neill is an interesting case, because he's posted numbers similar to those you cited (@7% BB rate, @30% K rate, spot-on .330 BABIP). That runs up to a career line of .254 BA/.320 OBP/.467 SLG. Now, his career AB/HR (1 HR/18.34 AB) is nothing to sneeze at, but let's make it match De La Cruz' 2022 1 HR/14.65 AB rate. We're back-of-the-napkining this, so we're just going to turn BIP Outs into HR for O'Neill to see what an extra 15 HR looks like when adding them as Hits. That would incrase O'Neill's .254 BA (1,137 AB) to a .267 BA, with resulting gains to his OBP and SLG. (The reality is that adding HR would actually turn some non-Outs like Doubles into HR, so there really wouldn't be a 1:1 match to Hits.) So if we max out impact, we don't see anything bad, but even with <very> best-case additional "free" power added, that's not the profile of a high-average hitter.

    And there's a problem. De La Cruz' AB/HR rate this season is career Aaron Judge/Mike Trout/Fernando Tatis Jr.-esque. More outlier-level stuff. But his outcome rate stats don't profile like those guys; all had demonstrated more developed plate discipline skills before hitting the bigs. De La Cruz would need to significantly enhance his BB rate and cut down on his K rates, while also sustaining outlier-level HR rates OR ludicrously-high BABIP rates (the kind that literally no one sustains). That's an incredibly tall order. The good news is that it doesn't look like he's Walk-allergic, only BB-deficient. So there's is a reason for tempering expectations. I think it's also important to note that improving plate discipline takes time, and many (if not most) young players take a step back once they hit the Show. Some never recover to where they left off in the minors. Some do, and some improve. I'm hoping that De La Cruz is one of the latter.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 08-20-2022 at 01:28 AM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  2. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (08-22-2022),CaiGuy (08-20-2022),HammerTime (08-20-2022),mth123 (08-20-2022),Old school 1983 (08-19-2022),Redsfaithful (08-20-2022)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #332
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    291

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    2BB 0K so far for Elly tonight.

    Is our boy readin the Zone???
    Walk number 3 with a nine pitch at bat.

  5. #333
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    is everything
    Posts
    3,039

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    3BB tonight for De La Cruz and honestly one of the most impressive nights he's had that I've seen. On his third BB he was down in the count and battled back to get the walk. He's finally hit that inflection point where pitchers won't go near him (at least tonight). And to his credit he's laid off the bad stuff. Big night in his development IMO.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  6. #334
    Member Mitri's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    4,135

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by bah1286 View Post
    Walk number 3 with a nine pitch at bat.

  7. Likes:

    Tom Servo (08-19-2022)

  8. #335
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    1,960

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    People comparing Elly to other players(especially mediocre ones) are probably wasting their time. This is a special athlete, and I get the feeling he can do anything on a baseball field that he wanted to. Doesn't mean he's a sure fire HOF, but I get the feeling that his baseball IQ, and ability and willingness to make adjustments is far beyond a guy like Javier Baez.

  9. Likes:

    wolfboy (08-20-2022)

  10. #336
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    34,179

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    People comparing Elly to other players(especially mediocre ones) are probably wasting their time. This is a special athlete, and I get the feeling he can do anything on a baseball field that he wanted to. Doesn't mean he's a sure fire HOF, but I get the feeling that his baseball IQ, and ability and willingness to make adjustments is far beyond a guy like Javier Baez.
    To be clear, I wasn't trying to say the best we can hope for is that he's Javy Baez or anything. My point was just that it's overly simplistic to say no one can succeed as a high K/low BB guy when several guys have been very productive with that profile.

    But tonight shows that it's foolhardy to assume what we see right now with EDLC is exactly what he will be in the next few years at GABP. He's a freak, and if he wants to walk more maybe he just will start doing it overnight.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  11. Likes:

    JCM11 (08-19-2022)

  12. #337
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    9,972

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    People comparing Elly to other players(especially mediocre ones) are probably wasting their time. This is a special athlete, and I get the feeling he can do anything on a baseball field that he wanted to. Doesn't mean he's a sure fire HOF, but I get the feeling that his baseball IQ, and ability and willingness to make adjustments is far beyond a guy like Javier Baez.
    Over 20,000 players have put on a MLB uniform. Not one of them could do anything they wanted to on a baseball field. Everyone comps to someone else. The trick is understanding how.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  13. #338
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    1,960

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Over 20,000 players have put on a MLB uniform. Not one of them could do anything they wanted to on a baseball field. Everyone comps to someone else. The trick is understanding how.
    I'd seriously like to hear the list of 6'5 switch hitting SS that hit 500 ft HR and have elite speed to make some comparisons.

  14. #339
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    In Your Head
    Posts
    9,972

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    I'd seriously like to hear the list of 6'5 switch hitting SS that hit 500 ft HR and have elite speed to make some comparisons.
    How someone's hitting projects is not position-dependent and assuming that a player is incomparable off the pull is almost always a pretty tragic mistake when it comes to any reasonable analysis.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  15. #340
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    29,114

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    The comp that easily comes to mind for me is Oneil Cruz. Tall, athletic SS, exceptional all around talent.

    Cruz is struggling right now, .625 OPS, crazy high K rate of 37%. Cruz had a lower OPS in the minors, but a better K rate than De La Cruz.

    Both players may end up being stars, but Cruz may be a cautionary tale about rushing De La Cruz to the majors too soon.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769022

  16. #341
    Member Mitri's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    4,135

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The comp that easily comes to mind for me is Oneil Cruz. Tall, athletic SS, exceptional all around talent.

    Cruz is struggling right now, .625 OPS, crazy high K rate of 37%. Cruz had a lower OPS in the minors, but a better K rate than De La Cruz.

    Both players may end up being stars, but Cruz may be a cautionary tale about rushing De La Cruz to the majors too soon.
    Cruz is much older than Elly when you compare them at each level, and yet still Elly blows him away in the power department.

    But yes, Elly’s swing and miss is slightly worse. I have no doubt will be an issue for Elly in the coming years, I’m just not sure it’s going to matter.

  17. #342
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    14,429

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by bah1286 View Post
    Walk number 3 with a nine pitch at bat.
    Yeah but did he hit any sac flies or was he being selfish? Do the Reds pay him to walk?
    “The guys we've had for the most part have been serviceable at this level.”

  18. Likes:

    camisadelgolf (08-23-2022)

  19. #343
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    11,464

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    3BB tonight for De La Cruz and honestly one of the most impressive nights he's had that I've seen. On his third BB he was down in the count and battled back to get the walk. He's finally hit that inflection point where pitchers won't go near him (at least tonight). And to his credit he's laid off the bad stuff. Big night in his development IMO.
    If he can take a bases empty walk, he's got the kind of speed to "turn it into a triple" in just a couple of pitches (SBs).
    Last edited by corkedbat; 08-20-2022 at 07:40 AM.

  20. #344
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    8,746

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    With the three walks last night, De La Cruz has a 7.9% BB rate overall this season. His AA BB rate is 8.1%.

    That AA BB% ranks tied for 317th out of 451 AA hitters who've had 100 PAs.

    We're working with small samples here, but the trend is good to see. Last year's 4.8 BB% in low A was super sketchy. When coupled with his ACL numbers, it worked out to be (slightly) better, but still underwhelming. That was obviously a point of emphasis for De La Cruz and the Reds. (He's said as much in interviews.) This year, that BB% jumped to 7.8% in High-A in just over 300 PAs. Now, in AA, he's jumped a bit more.

    At the same time, his K rate has pretty much held steady at a very high 30%. Despite the bump in levels and the slightly different plate approach, he continues to K at the same rate.

    There's work to be done, obviously. But the trend line is good (if based on small samples). Could be better, of course, and this is obviously going to be the worry for Reds' fans (and Reds' brass alike). But he's progressing.

  21. #345
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    17,552

    Re: Elly De La Cruz

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The comp that easily comes to mind for me is Oneil Cruz. Tall, athletic SS, exceptional all around talent.

    Cruz is struggling right now, .625 OPS, crazy high K rate of 37%. Cruz had a lower OPS in the minors, but a better K rate than De La Cruz.

    Both players may end up being stars, but Cruz may be a cautionary tale about rushing De La Cruz to the majors too soon.
    Cruz’s minor league stats do not compare to EDLC’s

    It’s like some of you are trying to talk yourselves into not being excited about de La Cruz. Part of me gets it.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  22. Likes:

    Mitri (08-20-2022),ochoa30 (08-20-2022),wolfboy (08-20-2022)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator