2022 Rotation

[corkedbat]

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Or, y'know, Hunter Greene.

Or Nick Lodolo.

Or Tony Santillan.

The Reds shut down Greene after 106 innings the season (he has 179 professional innings total). Lodolo's professional resume is 69 innings total. Is either a legitimate rotation option and, if so, how much of a season can you count on each for before you shut them down?

[mth123]

It really wasn't. It might look that way through the funhouse mirror of the GAB, but the team had a 109 ERA+. The OPS+ was 93. Bad defense was an issue, and they definitely can make gains there. But their pitching was really good. For all the nightmares the bullpen gave us, the pen ranked 4th in the NL in Wins Above Average.

Generally agreed with your offseason pitching plan. They can't ignore that part of the team. Givens + a lefty in the pen would be my preference too. Some depth SPs also makes sense.

I agree about the defense, but that should improve by replacing Castellanos with a CF type and having Barrero/Farmer at SS all year. Slide Naquin/Senzel over to RF stick Moose at DH and the only well below average spot is LF. Suarez is a little shaky at 3B, but reality is that they are stuck with Suarez and Moose. The contract to try to move by packaging a kid is Shogo. Its a lot less money so it should require a lot less talent to move and maybe the Reds could take a contract back that fits a little better. The Reds may need to take on some money in future seasons to try and fix this year within the budget.

[klw]

Lodolo is likely a year out from being in a position to have a dedicated spot in the rotation because he only threw 50 ish innings this year. This will likely mean he has an inning restriction next year which would be managed by a late start/minors start with low innings but mid-season promotion or full use early but then an early shutdown. Hopefully he develops next year and gets a good look at the MLB level so that he can be inked in to the rotation for 2023.


Edit: I now see Corkedbat's post saying similar stuff.

[Bourgeois Zee]

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The Reds shut down Greene after 106 innings the season (he has 179 professional innings total). Lodolo's professional resume is 69 innings total. Is either a legitimate rotation option and, if so, how much of a season can you count on each for before you shut them down?

Seen this from a few people.

That's why you have multiple guys-- to see if it works.

Once upon a time, Miley was a cheap alternative too.

Find the next Miley-- don't pay for last year's model on this one. (IMO)

I'd deal him for an OF, personally, hoping that my pitching coach can find a bargain bin guy to produce similarly to Miley the past two seasons.

[HokieRed]

Seen this from a few people.

That's why you have multiple guys-- to see if it works.

Once upon a time, Miley was a cheap alternative too.

Find the next Miley-- don't pay for last year's model on this one. (IMO)

I'd deal him for an OF, personally, hoping that my pitching coach can find a bargain bin guy to produce similarly to Miley the past two seasons.

Only problem here is that you're not going to get much of an outfielder for a 35 year old who everybody knows tends to follow years of heavy work with significantly weaker performance.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Only problem here is that you're not going to get much of an outfielder for a 35 year old who everybody knows tends to follow years of heavy work with significantly weaker performance.

Fair point.

And I also get the safety of keeping Miley as well. He's the known commodity. And he had a good season, no doubt.

[M2]

Seen this from a few people.

That's why you have multiple guys-- to see if it works.

Once upon a time, Miley was a cheap alternative too.

Find the next Miley-- don't pay for last year's model on this one. (IMO)

I'd deal him for an OF, personally, hoping that my pitching coach can find a bargain bin guy to produce similarly to Miley the past two seasons.

But they didn't get Miley on the cheap. They've paid him $7.5M each of the past two seasons (well, discounted in 2020 because of COVID, but it was originally a $7.5M commitment). He's turned out to be worth the $10M extra year they negotiated a couple of years ago.

So I'd totally get where you were coming from if he was a scrapheap guy who now was heading into free agency and they were going to have to pay him a pricey multi-year contract. In that case, absolutely go back to the scrapheap. Yet this is one year at pretty much the same price point. They don't have to rework their budget to fit him in. If Miley was a free agent and he agreed to come back for one year at $10M, we'd probably think the Reds did good work getting him on such a short term.

[Bourgeois Zee]

But they didn't get Miley on the cheap. They've paid him $7.5M each of the past two seasons (well, discounted in 2020 because of COVID, but it was originally a $7.5M commitment). He's turned out to be worth the $10M extra year they negotiated a couple of years ago.

So I'd totally get where you were coming from if he was a scrapheap guy who now was heading into free agency and they were going to have to pay him a pricey multi-year contract. In that case, absolutely go back to the scrapheap. Yet this is one year at pretty much the same price point. They don't have to rework their budget to fit him in. If Miley was a free agent and he agreed to come back for one year at $10M, we'd probably think the Reds did good work getting him on such a short term.

Again, I understand your point.

I suspect that Miley will not be worth that $10M price tag in 2022.

[M2]

Again, I understand your point.

I suspect that Miley will not be worth that $10M price tag in 2022.

He's got to be worth all of 1.0 WAR to earn it. I like his chances.

[Bourgeois Zee]

He's got to be worth all of 1.0 WAR to earn it. I like his chances.

Which he's done three times in the past six seasons.

And it's his age 35 season.

Maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't.

I'd argue even money at best-- and age isn't on his side.

[M2]

Which he's done three times in the past six seasons.

And it's his age 35 season.

Maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't.

I'd argue even money at best-- and age isn't on his side.

I'm not seeing anyone else I feel is more likely to do it for that amount or less. And bWAR's got him above that bar in 3 of the past 4 seasons (1.5, 1.6, -0.1, 5.7).

[Kc61]

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The Reds shut down Greene after 106 innings the season (he has 179 professional innings total). Lodolo's professional resume is 69 innings total. Is either a legitimate rotation option and, if so, how much of a season can you count on each for before you shut them down?

If Greene has a good spring, yes, he is a legitimate rotation option.

He may only pitch 120 innings, but he is legitimate. I’d rather have him throw 103 MPH against the Cardinals and Cubs than AAA opponents.

If he’s slightly underripe, the Reds have some pitchers who may be slightly overripe. He’ll get good coaching with DJ, which will help.

Lodolo, hard to know, he had those injury absences last season.

[RedsFanInMS]

Should we put Greene and Lodolo in the pen this year, and then put them in the rotation in 23? Adam Wainwright, David Price, Dave Stewart, and Jimmy Key were all high rated prospects who served a year in the pen before coming starters. It allows both to get MLB experience while helping shore up our weakest spot. The White Sox also did this with Michael Kopech this year. Is it an advantage or worth it to do this, or would both be better served stretching out as starters in the minors?

[Chip R]

Should we put Greene and Lodolo in the pen this year, and then put them in the rotation in 23? Adam Wainwright, David Price, Dave Stewart, and Jimmy Key were all high rated prospects who served a year in the pen before coming starters. It allows both to get MLB experience while helping shore up our weakest spot. The White Sox also did this with Michael Kopech this year. Is it an advantage or worth it to do this, or would both be better served stretching out as starters in the minors?

I think that's a pretty good idea. Teams used to do that all the time. Even if you started Greene, I wouldn't worry too much about his innings limit. If you gave him 20 starts and he pitched an average of 5 innings per start, that's only 100 IP. Most starters these days are only going about 5 innings anyway. Castillo pitched an average of 5 2/3 innings this year. I'm sure it would have been more if he hadn't have been so horrible in April and May. Mahle pitched 5.5 innings per start. Miley 5.8, Gray and Gutierrez around 5.2.

[WrongVerb]

I've been saying for 20 years that Reds should break in their pitchers as relievers, only starting them once they show they can consistently get major league batters out.