2022 Rotation

[M2]

They have to pick up the Miley option, whether to keep him or trade him. It would be malpractice to let him walk. I'd lean toward keeping him as you can't assume perfect health in the rotation. My take is Miley gives them a bridge arm while they work in Greene/Lodolo. The kids are going to have a learning curve. You want too many competent arms as opposed to not enough.

FWIW, I don't think they can get a lead pipe cinch OF for Miley. The kind of team that would be trading for a veteran arm who costs $10M isn't going to be moving a quality bat in the other direction. The Reds might be able to get an unproven guy they like, but they probably can get that for less prominent price.

[Benihana]

Should the Reds try to extend one/trade the other between Gray and Castillo this offseason? If so who would you choose? (Assuming Castellanos opts out, I’d look to move one of them for a stud corner OF. Maybe the Angels go all in for a ship in Ohtani’s walk year and consider moving Adell if the Reds throw in a Barnhart, Senzel or McLain?)

Two months later and especially after Ohtani's eyebrow-raising comments this week, I'd still love to give this idea a run.

Have to think they don't hang up the phone if you're offering Gray + one of those three. Angels need help everywhere except the OF.

[KeefeCato]

Leave Santillan in the pen. Trade Gray or Miley, whichever nets the best return. Hopefully they bring back a solid OF or SP piece along with $10MM in payflex.

That leaves two spots after Castillo, Mahle, Miley/Gray. You have Vlad, Sanmartin, Green, Lodolo to fill out the rotation. I’d definitely bring in an affordable vet for one spot and let him and the kids battle it out.

Agree with everything you said.

[Reds Freak]

The rotation this year pitched like a bunch of 3s, 4s, and 5s. To contend next year, the Reds either need to cross their fingers Castillo and Gray bounce back to more consistent form to fill the 1-2 spots or they need to acquire a 1-2. Counting on Greene and Lodolo, who have pitched very few innings the last two years, is a recipe for a fourth-place finish. I hope they pitch so well and force the issue, but I don't pencil them into spots to start the year.

[M2]

The rotation this year pitched like a bunch of 3s, 4s, and 5s. To contend next year, the Reds either need to cross their fingers Castillo and Gray bounce back to more consistent form to fill the 1-2 spots or they need to acquire a 1-2. Counting on Greene and Lodolo, who have pitched very few innings the last two years, is a recipe for a fourth-place finish. I hope they pitch so well and force the issue, but I don't pencil them into spots to start the year.

Current NL ranks:

ERA

14. Miley
16. Mahle
17. Castillo

ERA+

7. Miley
9. Mahle
17. Castillo

bWAR

5. Mahle
6. Miley
10. Castillo
19. Gray

And the Reds' starting pitching ranks 1st in the NL in Wins Above Average (actually 1st in all of MLB too) with 15.1. That's an extremely high number. You've got to go back to the 2011 Phillies (Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt) for an NL rotation with a higher WAA. The last time the Reds had a rotation lead the NL was 1990, at 8.1. Before that you've got to go back to 1962, at 8.3. As far as I can tell, this is the best ever Reds starting pitching compared to the rest of the league, and it's not even close. The 1941 rotation had Bucky Walters (best pitcher alive), Paul Derringer, Johnny Vander Meer and Elmer Riddle, and it had a 9.6 WAA. The 1923 rotation had Dolf Luque in a season for the ages (27-8, 1.93, 322 IP), Eppa Rixey (Hall of Fame) and Pete Donohoe, and it clocked in at 9.4 WAA.

People are impossible to please. These guys have done mammoth work.

[Reds Freak]

Current NL ranks:

ERA

14. Miley
16. Mahle
17. Castillo

ERA+

7. Miley
9. Mahle
17. Castillo

bWAR

5. Mahle
6. Miley
10. Castillo
19. Gray

And the Reds' starting pitching ranks 1st in the NL in Wins Above Average (actually 1st in all of MLB too) with 15.1. That's an extremely high number. You've got to go back to the 2011 Phillies (Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt) for an NL rotation with a higher WAA. The last time the Reds had a rotation lead the NL was 1990, at 8.1. Before that you've got to go back to 1962, at 8.3. As far as I can tell, this is the best ever Reds starting pitching compared to the rest of the league, and it's not even close. The 1941 rotation had Bucky Walters (best pitcher alive), Paul Derringer, Johnny Vander Meer and Elmer Riddle, and it had a 9.6 WAA. The 1923 rotation had Dolf Luque in a season for the ages (27-8, 1.93, 322 IP), Eppa Rixey (Hall of Fame) and Pete Donohoe, and it clocked in at 9.4 WAA.

People are impossible to please. These guys have done mammoth work.

Appreciate the stats and perspective. Looking at the numbers, the starters performed better than I thought.

However, I think my point still stands. I'm not saying to blow it up, but the Reds need a starter or two to be more consistent in the 1-2 role in order to be legit contenders. All those guys who rank above Miley, Mahle, and Castillo are mostly Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, and Braves.

[M2]

Appreciate the stats and perspective. Looking at the numbers, the starters performed better than I thought.

However, I think my point still stands. I'm not saying to blow it up, but the Reds need a starter or two to be more consistent in the 1-2 role in order to be legit contenders. All those guys who rank above Miley, Mahle, and Castillo are mostly Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, and Braves.

Outside of Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and perhaps now Walker Buehler very few pitchers annually rank among the NL elite. Those are rare birds and you either have one or you have to spend a fortune to get him. Yet the Reds had Gray (3rd) and Castillo (8th) rank among the 10 most valuable pitchers in the league in 2019 and Mahle and Miley have done it this year. After you park adjust their number, nobody from the Giants, Cardinals and Braves ranks ahead of Tyler and Wade.

The Reds' SPs have had excellent seasons. What's causing the distortion is the park factor. The GAB is brutal. It ranks almost even with Coors, then there's a huge gap to the next most pitcher unfriendly ballpark. So guy like Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman and Julio Urias all have some traditional numbers that make your eyes bug out, but Mahle and Miley rank ahead of those guys when you do the park adjustments. Sonny Gray was a little banged up and behind his traditional numbers this season, but he actually ranks right behind Adam Wainwright (Sonny dropped to 21st on the WAR list after last night). Also, throw in bad defense behind them as another factor masking how well the Reds SPs actually pitched. Put what you think is an elite pitching in the GAB with this Reds defense behind and what you'd get is a season that looks like what Mahle and Miley have put up.

Their bullpen even ranks as better than average when you do all the adjustments. Where the Reds have lagged is 3B (dead last), CF (dead last) and SS (13th). If they're following the data, the Reds will keep their pitching largely intact and shore up the weak spots in the lineup and in the field (they really need better defense).

[kaldaniels]

The pieces are in place to do a Rays like churn.

Gray is the obvious candidate, Castillo next.

Mahle is kinda still under the radar, and I like that.

No one says it will be easy to maintain a strong rotation 1-5, but running out the string with all our starters so far as their contracts/team control goes probably isn’t the best route for this franchise. (And frankly churning and bringing in exciting youngsters is kinda fun)

[Old school 1983]

If I had to trade a starter, it’d be Gray at this point. But, unless you get a legit OF starter, I stand pat. Bring back the rotation as it sits now with exception of the 5 spot. Let that be an open competition between Vlad, the prospects and NRIs.

My focus for the off-season is the pen and that OF. If I’m the Reds I go all out for Bryant. He can cover Rf, CF and 3b, all areas of concern.

[M2]

The pieces are in place to do a Rays like churn.

Gray is the obvious candidate, Castillo next.

Mahle is kinda still under the radar, and I like that.

No one says it will be easy to maintain a strong rotation 1-5, but running out the string with all our starters so far as their contracts/team control goes probably isn’t the best route for this franchise. (And frankly churning and bringing in exciting youngsters is kinda fun)

Wholly disagree. The Reds have a two-year window because of their starting rotation. Mess with that at your peril. While I think Greene and Lodolo could be the real deal, they also could be Stephenson and Reed. Thanks to the current rotation depth the Reds have the ability to work them into the mix one at a time. What they ought to do is extend Mahle and possibly Castillo so they're not staggered with Gray. The big thing, though, is when the Reds have pitching they need to hoard it. They can't throw money at the problem if it develops and they do not yet have a pitching factory in their minors that churns out arms.

[Kc61]

Wholly disagree. The Reds have a two-year window because of their starting rotation. Mess with that at your peril. While I think Greene and Lodolo could be the real deal, they also could be Stephenson and Reed. Thanks to the current rotation depth the Reds have the ability to work them into the mix one at a time. What they ought to do is extend Mahle and possibly Castillo so they're not staggered with Gray. The big thing, though, is when the Reds have pitching they need to hoard it. They can't throw money at the problem if it develops and they do not yet have a pitching factory in their minors that churns out arms.

I agree that the you mess with the current starting rotation “at your peril.” I’d take the risk and look to trade Miley or Gray.

The current Reds aren’t going anyplace without change. They’re a slightly above .500 WC contender about to lose Castellanos.

Miley and Gray are pitchers with mileage who’ve had some injuries. It’s a good time to cash one in, they should have value.

I’d take the risk of filling one pitching rotation slot from the good young crop Reds have. I’d look for a deal for a young controllable player, even if the deal must be expanded somewhat to get that return.

[Kinsm]

The rotation this year pitched like a bunch of 3s, 4s, and 5s.

Ummm, no.

[kaldaniels]

Wholly disagree. The Reds have a two-year window because of their starting rotation. Mess with that at your peril. While I think Greene and Lodolo could be the real deal, they also could be Stephenson and Reed. Thanks to the current rotation depth the Reds have the ability to work them into the mix one at a time. What they ought to do is extend Mahle and possibly Castillo so they're not staggered with Gray. The big thing, though, is when the Reds have pitching they need to hoard it. They can't throw money at the problem if it develops and they do not yet have a pitching factory in their minors that churns out arms.

If the front office proved me wrong with a decent budget/willing to up the payroll for a simple bullpen upgrade I’d agree. I’m
working within the confines of the Reds being a cheap team.

And cheap doesn’t necessarily mean total payroll, it also means unable to boost payroll a touch to make a large marginal improvement (the bullpen).

[kaldaniels]

I agree that you mess with the rotation “at your peril.” I’d take the risk.

The current Reds aren’t going anyplace without change. They’re a slightly above .500 WC contender about to lose Castellanos.

Miley and Gray are pitchers with mileage who’ve had some injuries. It’s a good time to cash one in, they still have value.

I’d take the risk of filling one pitching rotation slot from the good young pitching crop Reds have. I’d try to add a good young player in the deal, even if it has to be expanded.

Yep. Open to all suggestions.

But keep in mind the bullpen currently sucks and we are very likely losing Nick.

[Kinsm]

The pieces are in place to do a Rays like churn.

Gray is the obvious candidate, Castillo next.

Mahle is kinda still under the radar, and I like that.

No one says it will be easy to maintain a strong rotation 1-5, but running out the string with all our starters so far as their contracts/team control goes probably isn’t the best route for this franchise. (And frankly churning and bringing in exciting youngsters is kinda fun)

Regale me of the future Reds championship rotations filled with Robert Stephenson and Brandon Finnegan.

Instead of churn the Reds should be looking at locking up at least 1 of their current starters longterm.

We're at least one off-season away from counting on Lodolo and/or Greene to be quality starters (likely longer if at all).