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Thread: 2022 Rotation

  1. #46
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    The good news is we have options. Our starting 4 will be back I think that Hunter takes the 5th spot based on the meltdown of Vlad although he certainly was very good for most of the season. Santillan was his own worst enemy as he proved to be be effective as a RP and will thus likely remain there.


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  3. #47
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here’s where we differ - and it’s a legitimate debate. You want to get better without cracking the egg. I think Reds probably have to crack the egg to get where they want to go. Would involve some risks. But I just don’t see how Reds get much better without making some more substantial change.

    So I’m willing to trade from starting pitching - an area where there is significant prospect depth - to start remodeling. Especially starters who have some more mileage on their arms.

    You say that destroys 2022. I say, depends on what the club looks like in its entirety.
    I'm very much on the fence with next year's rotation. You make a very convincing argument to churn a guy like Gray, who is an injury concern that could net a good young player or two and a big chunk of salary. The argument to leave the rotation alone because it's the best thing the Reds have going in where I am leaning, though.

    There would still be plenty of room to improve the team outside of Castillo, Gray, Mahle and Miley. The fifth spot would be free to test young arms - Vlad, Sanmartin, Green, Lodolo - and having 4 solid vets would allow the Reds to let a guy like Lodolo iron out the wrinkles in AAA for another half season.

    I would also jump at the chance of churning backup C, SS (gotta give Barrero a shot), a big chunk of the OF, bench and bullpen. I would look to dump Moustakas for a bit of savings, and use that plus the savings from Barnhart, Cast, Lorenzen and perhaps even a boost in payroll to improve. If it doesn't work, they can always move one of the SPs at the deadline, but I'd love to see this rotation get another shot together. Sure, we may not see Miley produce another season like this, but there's a good chance Castillo doesn't bomb for 12 starts and Mahle takes another step up, too.

  4. #48
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I like Severino because the Reds need RH bats and he has an .850ish OPS against LHP. It would allow Stephenson to play 1B or DH while Moose or maybe Votto sits. Barnhart is too expensive for a sub .700 OPS bat.
    Their RH bat situation picks up with Barrero at SS and Stephenson behind the plate most days. RH hitting OFs aren't hard to find. Also, Votto isn't sitting all that often and Stephenson has the RH hitting side of catcher covered. If you look at the LH hitting catcher situation in MLB, it's dire. There's no one on the open market. And Tucker's price tag isn't that high for modern baseball. They're not going to come close to Tucker for a LH hitting option to spell Stephenson. I stick with the depth they have in hand.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  6. #49
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Thing about penciling in Greene & Lodollo is what are you gonna do if you happen to be in the race mid-August? They shutdown Greene after 106 IP this year and Lodolo has just 69 MiL period. Can either of them stretch out enough to make it deep into August (much less September or October).

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  8. #50
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Their RH bat situation picks up with Barrero at SS and Stephenson behind the plate most days. RH hitting OFs aren't hard to find. Also, Votto isn't sitting all that often and Stephenson has the RH hitting side of catcher covered. If you look at the LH hitting catcher situation in MLB, it's dire. There's no one on the open market. And Tucker's price tag isn't that high for modern baseball. They're not going to come close to Tucker for a LH hitting option to spell Stephenson. I stick with the depth they have in hand.
    That doesn't offset the loss of Castellanos. This team lost a bunch of series in a row becaue teams kept throwing lefty pitchers at them and they couldn't touch them. Barrero's OPS vs. lefty pitching in the minors was OK, but it was significantly lower than his OPS vs. RH pitching. Big league lefties will probably give him a lot of trouble. Stephenson can't catch every day, but the Reds need his bat in there. so give him his rest by sticking him at DH or letting him play 1B so Votto can DH or rest when a lefty is out there. Use the RH bat who hits lefty pitching as his back-up. Barnhart's lafty bat is wasted if Stephenson is the primary catcher and this team has too many other needs to pay $7 Million for a light hitting back up catcher who may start 50 times per year.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-01-2021 at 07:57 AM.
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  10. #51
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    I'm very much on the fence with next year's rotation. You make a very convincing argument to churn a guy like Gray, who is an injury concern that could net a good young player or two and a big chunk of salary. The argument to leave the rotation alone because it's the best thing the Reds have going in where I am leaning, though.

    There would still be plenty of room to improve the team outside of Castillo, Gray, Mahle and Miley. The fifth spot would be free to test young arms - Vlad, Sanmartin, Green, Lodolo - and having 4 solid vets would allow the Reds to let a guy like Lodolo iron out the wrinkles in AAA for another half season.

    I would also jump at the chance of churning backup C, SS (gotta give Barrero a shot), a big chunk of the OF, bench and bullpen. I would look to dump Moustakas for a bit of savings, and use that plus the savings from Barnhart, Cast, Lorenzen and perhaps even a boost in payroll to improve. If it doesn't work, they can always move one of the SPs at the deadline, but I'd love to see this rotation get another shot together. Sure, we may not see Miley produce another season like this, but there's a good chance Castillo doesn't bomb for 12 starts and Mahle takes another step up, too.
    Fine, reasonable disagreement. But your last paragraph is unpersuasive. Trading a “big chunk of the OF, bench and bullpen” offers little value other than Winker. And Moose, unhealthy and expensive, is likely not tradeable right now unless Reds pay the contract and/or give top prospects.

    If Cast leaves, the Reds can still get better with spending (beyond arb raises), better luck, or some meaningful restructuring of the team. My guess is Reds will mostly rely on better luck. Some limited spending is possible. The disagreement is the restructuring part which would require trading real value for a good return.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-01-2021 at 09:13 AM.

  11. #52
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Their RH bat situation picks up with Barrero at SS and Stephenson behind the plate most days. RH hitting OFs aren't hard to find. Also, Votto isn't sitting all that often and Stephenson has the RH hitting side of catcher covered. If you look at the LH hitting catcher situation in MLB, it's dire. There's no one on the open market. And Tucker's price tag isn't that high for modern baseball. They're not going to come close to Tucker for a LH hitting option to spell Stephenson. I stick with the depth they have in hand.
    I think that would be smart. However, I have seen people suggest that Stephenson play 140 games next year. They haven't said they should all be at catcher but they have a fit when Barnhart catches. Stephenson's bat is fine. From the few games I've seen with him catching, I think he needs some more work on defense and pitch calling. But he's a rookie so I have to cut him some slack. We also forget that Barnhart was one of the more consistent hitters early in the season. Now whether he regressed to the mean or he was just tired I don't know. But I'd look for at least a 60/40 split in sharing the catching duties if Barnhart is back with Barnhart being the 40.

    I think they may need to make a decision with Stephenson soon. Do you leave him at catcher where he would be one of the best hitting catchers in the game but possibly wearing him out? Or do you get catching elsewhere - perhaps that kid the Reds drafted recently who I believe is a catcher - and put Stephenson at 1st when Votto retires?
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  13. #53
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Fine, reasonable disagreement. But your last paragraph is unpersuasive. Trading a “big chunk of the OF, bench and bullpen” offers little value other than Winker. And Moose, unhealthy and expensive, is likely not tradeable right now unless Reds pay the contract and/or give top prospects.

    If Cast leaves, the Reds can still get better with spending (beyond arb raises), better luck, or some meaningful restructuring of the team. My guess is Reds will mostly rely on better luck. Some limited spending is possible. The disagreement is the restructuring part which would require trading real value for a good return.
    What I meant by that is there is room to churn a few OF spots (Winker and Friedl are my only locks), bullpen (bringing back Givens and at least one additional new reliever would be huge, and the bench (Lopez/Schrock/Aquino, etc.). Churn where it’s needed - OF and bullpen - and make those last rotation and bullpen spots an area for a new prospect to stake a claim.

  14. #54
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    That doesn't offset the loss of Castellanos. This team lost a bunch of series in a row becaue teams kept throwing lefty pitchers at them and they couldn't touch them. Barrero's OPS vs. lefty pitching in the minors was OK, but it was significantly lower than his OPS vs. RH pitching. Big league lefties will probably give him a lot of trouble. Stephenson can't catch every day, but the Reds need his bat in there. so give him his rest by sticking him at DH or letting him play 1B so Votto can DH or rest when a lefty is out there. Use the RH bat who hits lefty pitching as his back-up. Barnhart's lafty bat is wasted if Stephenson is the primary catcher and this team has too many other needs to pay $7 Million for a light hitting back up catcher who may start 50 times per year.
    They need to cover the loss of Castellanos in the aggregate. In terms of hitting southpaws, a lot will revolve around platoon options in the OF and the disposition of 3B.

    As for Barnhart, 50 starts is a lot of work and the place to rest Stephenson is vs. tough RHPs. Also, depth matters. If they cheap out on picking up that option they probably won't be able to find a decent LH hitting complement to Stephenson. If they go with a redundancy, I expect them to go the cheap route on that too (both in terms of salary and trade capital). They could just tab Kolozsvary and be done with it.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  15. #55
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    What I meant by that is there is room to churn a few OF spots (Winker and Friedl are my only locks), bullpen (bringing back Givens and at least one additional new reliever would be huge, and the bench (Lopez/Schrock/Aquino, etc.). Churn where it’s needed - OF and bullpen - and make those last rotation and bullpen spots an area for a new prospect to stake a claim.
    As you know, you have to trade value to get value.

    If you keep the “locks” and trade the expendables, the return will be in the vicinity of zilch.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-01-2021 at 01:14 PM.

  16. #56
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    As you know, you have to trade value to get value.

    If you keep the “locks” and trade the expendables, the return will be in the vicinity of zilch.
    What I’m saying is they don’t really need to make trades to get better. They just have to spend wisely.

    Instead of giving Naquin a raise and another 400 abs, let him walk and find the 22 Naquin. I’d like to see them try and focus on a 26 man squad, not 20 plus 6 question marks last last season. It will require a slightly bigger budget but doesn’t necessarily mean they have to trade from the strongest part of the team - the rotation.

  17. #57
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    What I’m saying is they don’t really need to make trades to get better. They just have to spend wisely.

    Instead of giving Naquin a raise and another 400 abs, let him walk and find the 22 Naquin. I’d like to see them try and focus on a 26 man squad, not 20 plus 6 question marks last last season. It will require a slightly bigger budget but doesn’t necessarily mean they have to trade from the strongest part of the team - the rotation.
    So Reds lose Castellanos and then get better without trades, but spending wisely with a slightly bigger budget.

    I think it’s improbable, but if Reds go that way I wish them luck.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-01-2021 at 02:03 PM.

  18. #58
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Apparently, the Reds might think of Cessa as a starter next year.
    I see no reason to extend Castillo
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  19. #59
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I see no reason to extend Castillo
    Other than he's good at pitching and can survive in the Reds' farcically lopsided hitters park? If they can strike a deal for an extra year or two on him, that would be good business (something like the deal they cut that bought them an extra year of Cueto).
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  21. #60
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    Re: 2022 Rotation

    Lance McAlister @LanceMcAlister

    Luis Castillo (4.05) makes his final start of season tonight.

    He has a shot to finish w/ sub 4.00 ERA.
    He entered June at 7.22.

    He has a 2.77 in 21 starts since....allowing 3 or more runs twice.
    #Reds

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