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Thread: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

  1. #406
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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by Ky Fried Redleg View Post
    36.3% according to KFR odds at series beginning. lol
    That would be based on the Reds having a 77.5% chance of winning each game, although each game would be different based on pitching matchups.


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  3. #407
    Member Ky Fried Redleg's Avatar
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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    That would be based on the Reds having a 77.5% chance of winning each game, although each game would be different based on pitching matchups.


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    That's correct. In my mind, against such a horrible team and with the Reds playing well, I felt 75-77.5% chance of winning any one individual game in this series was reasonable. Hence, the math. I felt good about giving a 36% chance of us sweeping this series. Someone mentioned 10%. If I had seen 10% ( which is equivalent to 9:1 odds) for a Reds' sweep, I would have jumped all over that line with about a 5 C-Note bet. I would have profited a nice $4,500 this weekend.

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by Ky Fried Redleg View Post
    That's correct. In my mind, against such a horrible team and with the Reds playing well, I felt 75-77.5% chance of winning any one individual game in this series was reasonable. Hence, the math. I felt good about giving a 36% chance of us sweeping this series. Someone mentioned 10%. If I had seen 10% ( which is equivalent to 9:1 odds) for a Reds' sweep, I would have jumped all over that line with about a 5 C-Note bet. I would have profited a nice $4,500 this weekend.
    It looks like 2 games were -200 and 2 games were -250 for the Reds to win.

    That is implied 67% and 71% odds for them respectively which gave the Reds around a 22 percent chance to sweep. So the answer lies in the middle of our 2 sportsbooks.

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    I found this discussion of the odds quite entertaining. But one point about sports book odds.

    They are not based on the actual odds of a team winning, they are based on how much money is bet on each side. The goal of the sports book is to get an equal amount of money bet on both sides, so that they their payout is the same for either result. They make their money by taking a 10% cut of each payout.

    So the odds of a sports book can easily be out of wack from the actual odds of each team winning.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    It looks like 2 games were -200 and 2 games were -250 for the Reds to win.

    That is implied 67% and 71% odds for them respectively which gave the Reds around a 22 percent chance to sweep. So the answer lies in the middle of our 2 sportsbooks.


    And that makes sense. I figured according to betting lines it would 20-25% . I just had a good feeling about the weekend, which is why I felt like giving us a little more than 1 in 3 chance. Most importantly, I'm glad we got the job done.

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I found this discussion of the odds quite entertaining. But one point about sports book odds.

    They are not based on the actual odds of a team winning, they are based on how much money is bet on each side. The goal of the sports book is to get an equal amount of money bet on both sides, so that they their payout is the same for either result. They make their money by taking a 10% cut of each payout.

    So the odds of a sports book can eny one of those four games.asily be out of wack from the actual odds of each team winning.
    Good post. That's very true. I felt good about the Reds having a 75% chance of winning any one of those games . Assuming we use that 75% number with each game , 3/4 x 3/4 x3/4 x 3/4 = 81/256 ~~ 2.16 :1 against. So, the odds against a sweep in that case would be about 2.2: 1 .
    Last edited by Ky Fried Redleg; 08-08-2021 at 08:17 PM.

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Quote Originally Posted by Ky Fried Redleg View Post
    And that makes sense. I figured according to betting lines it would 20-25% . I just had a good feeling about the weekend, which is why I felt like giving us a little more than 1 in 3 chance. Most importantly, I'm glad we got the job done.
    Absolutely.

    Rarely do you see odds like that over 4 games.

    Tomorrow (for instance) Milwaukee is at Chicago and Peralta is pitching and it is -180 for Mil.

    I’d be curious to see odds if Pitt had a 4 game series at LA.

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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    Heck of a series for you guys.

    From an outsider’s point of view, you have to have one of the best trio of 2-3-4 hitters in all of baseball. Not to mention 1 and 5 are close to All-Star level in their own right. Plus a gold glove catcher? Not shabby.

    I feel like if one or two of your starters can go on a hot streak for the last month and a half you have a real chance at leapfrogging the Brewers. Obviously the bullpen needs to get better also, but I believe a few guys will become reliable down the stretch. Givens and Lorenzen being two off the top of my head.

    Just my thoughts.

    I’ll see you folks again soon. In the mean time, we’ll try to give you some help this weekend. Go Bucs!

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  12. #414
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    Re: 8-8-21 Reds vs Pirates 1:10pm

    This guy doesn’t look easy for lefties


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