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Thread: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    (I thought I might create a series of these for players who, for whatever reason, don't have a dedicated thread. That will make it easier to discuss specific movement, production, and pedigree, as needed. Some of them may be brought back up years in the future; so be it. Right now, these guys look interesting. Note: I haven't looked at all-- this is done entirely through numbers and other opinions. Caveat emptor, or something.)

    Prospect History
    Yerlin Confidan was signed a couple of years ago at the same time as Braylin Minier and Michael Triana. Out of the Dominican, here was his scouting report then (h/t Doug Gray):

    Yerlin Confidan, an outfielder from the Dominican Republic. Left-handed hitting outfielder. He shows elite arm strength and profiles as a right fielder. He has long limbs and is very projectable with big time power in the future. Needs to add strength, but can already drive the ball to all fields.
    Doug wasn't wrong.

    Production
    Confidan's been a consistent source of power for the Arizona Complex Reds all season. He's played 42 games and has amassed just over 150 PAs on the season, so we've got a small sample, but one that's not got too much noise. (Just the perfect amount for arguments, I think. ) With his 9th HR last night, Confidan's now leading the 18-team ACL in home runs. That's second in all 36 teams of complex ball (third, if you count the 30 teams of the Dominican Summer League as such a league). So we're talking lots of prospects.

    His .935 OPS ranks 10th in the ACL among those with at least 100 ABs. His .315 BA ranks in the top 20 of the ACL as well. His slugging percentage ranks 4th in the ACL, while his total bases and ISO SLG rank 2nd. In short, he's hitting for lots of power while keeping his BA well above league average.

    Confidan's speed is a plus as well. 7 SB against 3 CS is acceptable at this stage of development. In just 42 games, that works out to a 25/ 25 possibility over full season baseball. He's also thrown out six runners on the basepaths-- that augers well for either CF or RF.

    Did I mention he's the 22nd youngest player in the ACL?

    So precocious production, check. Power at a young age without sacrificing much BA, check. Speed, check. Defense, check.

    You'd expect Confidan's approach, then, to be an issue. And you'd be right. His 23.6 K% is acceptable (barely), but the 6.2 BB% needs some work. Free swinging will work at this stage of development, but it's always better to see more patience than less.

    Comparables
    Because of the youthful production, it's hard to find similar players to Confidan. Obviously, Aristides Aquino is one-- great arm, good power, power-based production, even speed. But Aquino was a year older than Confidan is now.

    If you compare across the ACL of the past 20 years for age (18) and a .300/.350/.550 line with 6+ HR, you get guys like Matt Olsen, Lewis Brinson, Clint Frazier, and Bobby Bradley as comparisons. What's interesting is just how remarkably few players there are who wash out completely after having achieved that line even in a league as far from the majors as Arizona. Robel Garcia, Rymer Liriano, Jeff Bianchi, Kyle Blanks are all MLB guys who didn't excel, but at least they made it. Only Jharmidy DeJesus and Demi Orimoloye were/ are the only career minor leaguers who never made the Show who had that line over the past 20 years. (I find that fascinating.)

    The best comparison based strictly on numbers and age would be, IMO, Japan League HR king (and former Red) Wladimir Balentien. That's a guy who ended up in the top 100 prospect lists, fwiw.

    Regardless, it's time to get on board, Reds fans.

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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    I loved Wladimir Balentien
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    Good find and he is still very young and this is nitpicking...but his strikeout rate and bb/so rate seems pretty high.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    Good find and he is still very young and this is nitpicking...but his strikeout rate and bb/so rate seems pretty high.
    23.6% isn't great, but it's fine as long as he's producing monster power numbers. (Which he is.) Too, he's 18-- I expect that to drop slightly as the game slows down for him. The BB% is, as mentioned above, a larger problem. Typically, if you don't have that patient, walk-heavy approach early, you really have to work to acquire it-- and most never do. If he earns a reputation as a big bopper, pitchers will work around him. That could lead to a higher BB percentage.

    He'll have to work on that his entire career, I suspect, and it might be a major stumbling block moving forward. But he's 18 and has serious pop already. Precocious power is one of the indicators of major league success. Confidan has that in spades. He's worth the 15 seconds it takes to find his numbers, at this point.

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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    I agree precocious power is intriguing. Same reason I like Leonardo Balcazar who just turned 17 and is leading the DOSL Reds in HR's and is third in the league!

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=balcaz000leo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi1e4jl1UWU

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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    I recall hearing a few years ago that it is said that a player can't walk off the island (Dominican Republic). Perhaps that encourages players to down play BB's and to demonstrate hitting prowess at the expense of expanding the zone. Perhaps, Confidan will become more selective as he moves up the ladder.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    I recall hearing a few years ago that it is said that a player can't walk off the island (Dominican Republic). Perhaps that encourages players to down play BB's and to demonstrate hitting prowess at the expense of expanding the zone. Perhaps, Confidan will become more selective as he moves up the ladder.
    The problem is that becoming more selective as you move up the ladder rarely happens.

    Players tend to be who they were as youngsters, only moreso.

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    Re: Early Bandwagon: Yerlin Confidan, ACL RF

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    The problem is that becoming more selective as you move up the ladder rarely happens.

    Players tend to be who they were as youngsters, only moreso.
    Nevertheless, reserve a place for me on the bandwagon. Keep 'un coming, BZ. Confidan and Jorge had escaped my notice.


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