Since we're getting closer to the end of the 2021 regular season, I thought it would be fun to own up to some bad takes and gloat over some correct takes that we've all had this year.
I'll start.
Wrong: I claimed multiple times that the Brewers' pitching would not hold up and that they'd finish 3rd or 4th in the division. I was very wrong.
Right: I'm hardly alone on this one, but I was absolutely sure Castillo would wind up having a good season after his very bad start.
Bob Sheed (09-11-2021)
Right: Jonathan India. When he made the team out of spring training, I bought a ton of his numbered baseball cards for dirt cheap. Now they are selling for crazy prices on ebay but I'm still holding until ROY. I saw something in him and I was right.
Wrong: Votto. Yep he still bangs. I thought he was washed up and that he'd be benched or injured by now. Nope. Glad to be way wrong there.
"Lemonade requires a significant amount of sugar. Otherwise, you've just made lemon juice."
Right that Suarez to SS was a fail
Right that the outfield defense was iffy
Wrong that Gray and Castillo would be money in the bank everytime
Wrong that the BP would shake itself out
Wrong: Castillo (though he hasn’t bounced back to absolute stud status, he’s been a nice turnaround)
Wrong: Suarez’s problem being solely shoulder-related
Right: the bullpen would be a persistent problem
Right: the Brewers would last and the Cards would present a problem.
Right: Naquin is not a replacement level player in any universe this season.
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-11-2021 at 08:45 PM.
Yeah never saw Suarez working at SS
Right on Reds defense, lack of athleticism
Wrong on the Giants lasting
Right on the White Sox being really good
Wrong on Jose Iglesias having a big year
I was wrong thinking aquino was the next hank aARON
i WAS RIGHT THINKING Mark Payton was half as good as Duane Walker
I was right thinking Carson Fulmer was the next Steve Blateric
Wrong: I thought more Reds fans would follow the wisdom of the Reds usher who gave a speech about the wishbone C that was made into a plaque and placed on the front wall of GABP.
Right: I never doubted this team for a second.
To be determined: Whether the Reds fan base can redeem themselves, believe in the team, and propel them to the playoffs and beyond.
I was right about Jonathan India all along. Since the moment he was drafted.
Was right about Kyle Farmer being a really valuable piece.
I was right about the Raisel trade. I didn’t predict he’d be as good as he has been, but the return (or lack thereof) was ridiculous.
I was right about our bullpen. Yeah, I know. Hardly makes me Cassandra.
I got the Suarez/SS thing right. Probably most of us did.
I was wrong in believing Shogo would prove to be a pretty good hitter with time.
Was wrong in thinking Aquino would be a dangerous hitter with regular PT.
Was wrong in thinking Garrett would be a lock-down closer. Or at least passable.
Was wrong in thinking Suarez would snap out of it; was wrong in thinking Castillo wouldn’t.
Was wrong about the team in general. Never thought it could be as good as it has.
“The crows seem to be calling my name,” thought Caw.
Bob Sheed (09-11-2021)
I was right about Gray and Miley having good seasons.
I was wrong about Castillo becoming elite.
I was right about Votto having a great power season.
I was wrong about Suarez bouncing back
Wrong about Senzel breaking out
Wrong about Moose being good
Right about Castellanos having a near MVP season
Being wrong so much, I can’t figure out how I’m close to my predicted 92 wins.
Part of the issue with having opinions is that you can be wrong. I have a laundry list of hot takes. Some have turned out okay. Others... Sigh:
Wrong about Suarez
This is my biggest mistake. By far. I believed he'd be a poor defensive SS who could outhit his mistakes in the field. Part of that has proven true-- in limited SS innings, he was poor in the field. (Not historically bad, as 75 and others insisted, but very poor.) My biggest mistake was that I assumed Suarez would hit as he did pre-2020-- solid BA, good patience, exceptional power. As we all know, he did not. If the Reds end up missing the playoffs, I think the lion's share of the blame can be laid at the feet of Krall-- who chose largely to do nothing to address the team's biggest weakness-- and Suarez's remarkably poor play pretty much all season. Had Moustakas been healthy, I suspect Suarez's leash would have been far shorter. If and buts, candy and nuts, though-- fact is, he's sucked, and I was very, very wrong.
Wrong about Miley
Happily wrong. I assumed he was getting by with smoke and mirrors and would have been happy to see him dealt early in the season. He's been the Reds' most dependable arm all year, and it's not been close.
Wrong about Senzel
I keep waiting for the breakout. He keeps getting broken.
Wrong about Garrett, Sims
Both have shown flashes of dominance. Neither is consistent. In lesser roles, they've shown adequacy. When put in larger, more vital bullpen spots, they've shown how important those roles are. Time for another team to see what they can do with them.
Wrong about Farmer
I assumed Farmer was, at best, below replacement level as a starting SS. His 1.3 fWAR, while certainly not earth-shattering, has helped the team a great deal. Without him, they're hopeless. With him, they've stayed in the hunt all season long. His is an example of how WAR doesn't quite capture the value of a player's contributions. Farmer is, IMO, one of the more valuable players on the Red roster. I certainly didn't see that coming in the off-season.
Right about Votto
I assumed Votto was more the hitter he was in the second half of the truncated 2020 season than in his first month. Thankfully, that's proven true. Didn't expect the power, but the Reds have needed every bit of it. He's cemented his status as a HOF bat-- and made the season far more enjoyable. Among the highlights is that he's largely shut up a surprisingly large and vocal contingent of RedsZone haters.
Right about Castellanos
He's been among the best players in the league when healthy. Lots were ready to get rid of him in the pre-season, insisting he was a one-win player. I argued differently. Turned out, he's been lights out. As an added bonus, he's been relatively clutch. (If such a term still exists.)
Right about Winker
Some posters insisted he was the second-coming of Castellanos and that the Reds couldn't afford to have both in the lineup due to defensive shortcomings. As we can clearly see, the Reds struggle without both he and Castellanos in the lineup. Winker's an All-Star bat, full stop. He's adequate in the field. Not great, but serviceable as a LF. And Cincinnati needs his bat desperately.
Wrong about Castillo
I thought Castillo would take the next step to ace-level pitcher. He has not. I'm unsure if he ever will, at this point. He's certainly very, very good-- he is not, IMO, an ace. Sigh.
Right about Mahle
Pre-season, I thought he'd take a step forward and cement his status as a solid MOR guy. He has. Still just 26.
Right about minor league development
Several posters insisted Red minor leaguers (India, Stephenson, Santillan, et al) were largely mirages, that their 2020 development was made up by PR-conscious Red execs. I argued differently. The best thing about this season, IMO, aside from perhaps the reemergence of Votto as a power guy, has been the emergence of India and Stephenson in the everyday lineup and, to a lesser extent, Santillan and Vlad on the pitching staff.
Right about Hoffman as a reliever
2.75 ERA in 13 games since the switch. Ks have jumped to over 12 per 9. He's been more than serviceable in his role and could well be a solid option moving into next season. He won't cost a bunch and will have some experience. I like him as a pen arm. (As a starter, less so.)
CaiGuy (09-12-2021),Powder River (09-12-2021)
I was right about India - spoke out against trading him. Right that 2020 was not indicative of Castellanos.
Mixed about Iglesias - thought trade was bad, but turned out even worse especially impact on pen generally. Was right about not building pen from scrap heap.
Wrong, didn’t expect offense would rebound so dramatically from 2020 (except for lately, so maybe not so wrong).
Was right about Mahle’s positive trajectory but wrong about Miley and Gray, both held up better than I expected.
Wrong about overall team success. Happily they are over .500. Hopefully right that Reds have bright future with good (and underrated) young talent.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2021 at 02:17 PM.
Yeah….I was right about Votto changing his approach and driving the ball
He looked almost dead in the water with his all-around game, now he’s a legitimate middle of the order guy that’s squaring up a a ton of balls. Looks to have more good offensive seasons in him now.
I was right about the Bullpen and especially Amir Garrett. I was right about Winker becoming a high end bat. I was right to say it was too soon to trust Lucas Sims as a top reliever. I was right about Raisel Iglesias being a huge loss and that all the scrap heap replacements (Bedrosian, Doolittle, Fulmer, Deleon, etc) being awful.
I was wrong about almost everything else - I expected a big bounce back from Suarez and that Nick Senzel would take the next step, I was wrong about Castellanos, I thought Votto was a .775ish OPS, I didn't expect India to be so good and Wade Miley was a complete surprise. I expected more from Castillo and Gray.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I am going to assume the Reds will not go winless the rest of the season so my preseason guess of 75 wins wont be correct. My next observation sort of ran counter to the 75 wins but i felt that this year's team was basically the same as last and no real moves had been made to improve. about 82-85 wins this year is about the same as last. +85 wins dosent look probable right now.
Right: The Rays trading Blake Snell last winter was a shrewd move.
Wrong: Didn't foresee the Brewers literally running away with the divisional title.
Right: One or both of Stephenson and/or India would emerge as significant contributors/franchise cornerstones.
Wrong: The dollars saved from the Iglesias trade would result in a reallocation of funds to address a significant weakness (SS, 'Pen, CF) prior to opening day.
Whatever you do, do your best to not allow the struggles of life to interfere with the pleasures of living.
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