What Will Next Year Look Like?

[UK Reds Fan]

I hope they don't forget what has made them competitive over the past couple seasons: a rotation much more consistent than has been the historical norm in Cincinnati. With that in mind, I would be very reluctant to trade any of Castillo, Gray, or Mahle. The first tough call, then, is Miley, and it does not seem wise to me to pay 10 million bucks to a 35 year old, even as good as he has been most of this year. I also think Gutierrez is probably going to be much more useful out of the pen, though maybe he has just run up against an innings wall this year. So I start with three starters and an "if" in Gutierrez and with Lodolo and Greene, of course, somewhere in the future. So here's a question. I don't know that it's wise to pay $5 million or upward to Lorenzen to work out of the pen but maybe you pay him and tell him he'll be given a serious shot at working in the rotation. He might start the season as the #4 starter with Gutierrez or Hoffman or O'Brien at number 5 and Lodolo and Greene in line to be brought up when ready. If Lorenzen handles the starting spot well and Lodolo and Greene claim spots, his success enables you to move one of the other starters. And this allows for Gutierrez to be moved to the pen, strengthening the pen. I think the OP's question is a complex one; this is as far as I've got so far.

Agreed....it's the Reds best bet to field 5 good to solid starting pitchers each night is when we're at our best. (Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Latos and Leake).

For 2022...
- Castillo, Mahle are solid and fine
- Can Gray start 30 games going forward? If so, he's solid as they come
- Wade Miley....going forward is he more like the guy that last 2 months where he's been rocked or like the full year that has been solid
- Guiterriez...he was solid as heck until the last month...and he's been pretty bad. Which one is he for 2022?

I think it's reasonable to give one of those 5 starting spots to Lodolo/Greene (whomever earns it in spring training) and maybe you trade a Sonny Gray for shoring up CF/RF situation. Or you can use $$$ from not keeping Wade Miley to do the same in RF/CF. Guiterriez is hardest call to make as the league could be adjusting to him and does that make him not a good starter going forward (or he could just need experience to solidify himself). But in any scenario, if the Reds ponder trading Castillo or Mahle....there is zero chance a playoff run and you might as well burn down the rest of the roster if that that is you're route.