What Will Next Year Look Like?

[KeefeCato]

My plan I don't think add much if any salary.Nicks contract would be equal to the new CF.
The two relievers would possibly add some salary depending on which starter was traded.
But Barnhart and Lorenzen salary would be more than Vottos platoon partner.
The vet catcher would be league minimum and be less than Lorenzens contract.
Resigning Givens I still don't think much if any salary would be added.

[mth123]

My Take

1. Castellanos certainly walks.
2. Exercise Barnhart's option and trade him for a late inning lefty reliever
3. Keep Lorenzen and Givens
4. Use Cast's money for a Legit CF
5. Non-tender Garrett
6. Sign a RH hitting Catcher who plays good defense (Curt Casali would be perfect.
7 Try to deal Suarez and Moose for relief, but I assume the Reds are stuck with them
8. See if some one will take Shogo (with the reds eating most of his salary, maybe a Japanese team would take him) if not, cut bait.

Vs. RHP
India 2B
New CF
Winker LF
Votto 1B
Stephenson C
Naquin RF
Moose 3B
Schrock DH
Barrero SS

Against LHP
India 2B
New CF
Stephenson 1B
Votto DH
Aquino RF
Winker LF
Suarez 3B
New RH C
Barrero SS

Supersubs Senzel, Farmer would be in the line-up half the time each (including Farmer behind the plate on occasion) That's one guy too many, but IL will be in play most of the time I'd guess.

Rotation stays the Same

Miley, Mahle, Castillo, Gray and Vlad. At least one of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft probably force their way in at some point, but not opening day.

Bullpen: Givens (CL), New Lefty, Lorenzen, Cessa, Santillan, Sims. Hoffman another lefty from somewhere, maybe C. Perez gets another chance. Warren and Moreta in AAA until IL says they are needed. I might shop Sims if anyone would give anything.

[Chip R]

My Take

1. Castellanos certainly walks.
2. Exercise Barnhart's option and trade him for a late inning lefty reliever
3. Keep Lorenzen and Givens
4. Use Cast's money for a Legit CF
5. Non-tender Garrett
6. Sign a RH hitting Catcher who plays good defense (Curt Casali would be perfect.
7 Try to deal Suarez and Moose for relief, but I assume the Reds are stuck with them
8. See if some one will take Shogo (with the reds eating most of his salary, maybe a Japanese team would take him) if not, cut bait.

Vs. RHP
India 2B
New CF
Winker LF
Votto 1B
Stephenson C
Naquin RF
Moose 3B
Schrock DH
Barrero SS

Against LHP
India 2B
New CF
Stephenson 1B
Votto DH
Aquino RF
Winker LF
Suarez 3B
New RH C
Barrero SS

Supersubs Senzel, Farmer would be in the line-up half the time each (including Farmer behind the plate on occasion) That's one guy too many, but IL will be in play most of the time I'd guess.

Rotation stays the Same

Miley, Mahle, Castillo, Gray and Vlad. At least one of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft probably force their way in at some point, but not opening day.

Bullpen: Givens (CL), New Lefty, Lorenzen, Cessa, Santillan, Sims. Hoffman another lefty from somewhere, maybe C. Perez gets another chance. Warren and Moreta in AAA until IL says they are needed. I might shop Sims if anyone would give anything.

You're going to pay Lorenzen $19M a year to do what? I wouldn't pay the best closer in baseball that much. I mean, if you want him to be the new CF too, then maybe but even then he'd have to have an Ohtaniesque season to be worth that much.

[mth123]

You're going to pay Lorenzen $19M a year to do what? I wouldn't pay the best closer in baseball that much. I mean, if you want him to be the new CF too, then maybe but even then he'd have to have an Ohtaniesque season to be worth that much.

Who said anything about paying him $19 Million??? I'd bring him back at his current Salary. He missed most of the year. Raise will be minimal.

[Kc61]

Agree with those who suggest trading a starting pitcher. IMO, it’s a must to trade Miley or Gray this off-season.

Reds are fortunate that Wade and Sonny had such good years. They are pitchers with some mileage, both have had injuries. Now is the time to cash in on at least one.

Greene and Lodolo are near ready. Waiting until the precise minute will cost Reds an opportunity. If necessary, use a cheap stop gap for a month or two. More likely, just go for it, let Greene throw 100 MPH for Reds in April.

Cast’s probable departure and trade of a SP would be two big items creating some salary space. Maybe a Barnhart departure and/or Lorenzen. Don’t see a deal for Suarez or Moose quite yet, not until one of them restores some value.

[757690]

I think what happens this off season will depend heavily on how the rest of this season unfolds.

If the Reds make the postseason, I can see a rise in payroll. If they go deep into the playoffs, I can see an even bigger rise in payroll.

If the Reds don’t make the postseason, I can see a similar payroll next season.

[Kc61]

I think what happens this off season will depend heavily on how the rest of this season unfolds.

If the Reds make the postseason, I can see a rise in payroll. If they go deep into the playoffs, I can see an even bigger rise in payroll.

If the Reds don’t make the postseason, I can see a similar payroll next season.

That would be an unfortunate process. Reds should evaluate the team objectively. They shouldn’t be swayed by whether they happen to prevail in the Wild Card hunt.

IMO Reds will want to get younger in any event. They will not want to increase payroll much, if at all.

That’s not a bad thing, necessarily. Reds need to get younger and more athletic, faster. Need to add fresh arms. Just depends how they go about it, patiently and smartly one would hope.

[mth123]

Agree with those who suggest trading a starting pitcher. IMO, it’s a must to trade Miley or Gray this off-season.

Reds are fortunate that Wade and Sonny had such good years. They are pitchers with some mileage, both have had injuries. Now is the time to cash in on at least one.

Greene and Lodolo are near ready. Waiting until the precise minute will cost Reds an opportunity. If necessary, use a cheap stop gap for a month or two. More likely, just go for it, let Greene throw 100 MPH for Reds in April.

Cast’s probable departure and trade of a SP would be two big items creating some salary space. Maybe a Barnhart departure and/or Lorenzen. Don’t see a deal for Suarez or Moose quite yet, not until one of them restores some value.

Sorry. I just don't weaken the rotation unless they go into full punt mode. I have visions of 2016 and 2017 dancing in my head. They had a bunch of highly regarded kids ready to take over then as well. The best of them became a reliever who we all can't wait to get rid of. The others are fringe big leaguers hanging on to a roster spot at best. If they are trying to win, no open rotation spots with question marks in them. Vlad is already a question mark. I'd only deal one for an overwhelming return.

[757690]

That would be an unfortunate process. Reds should evaluate the team objectively. They shouldn’t be swayed by whether they happen to prevail in the Wild Card hunt.

IMO Reds will want to get younger in any event. They will not want to increase payroll much, if at all.

That’s not a bad thing, necessarily. Reds need to get younger and more athletic, faster. Need to add fresh arms. Just depends how they go about it, patiently and smartly one would hope.

It will be based on revenue. Every post season game means more direct revenue right now, and more future revenue due to increased fan support.

[Kc61]

Sorry. I just don't weaken the rotation unless they go into full punt mode. I have visions of 2016 and 2017 dancing in my head. They had a bunch of highly regarded kids ready to take over then as well. The best of them became a reliever who we all can't wait to get rid of. The others are fringe big leaguers hanging on to a roster spot at best. If they are trying to win, no open rotation spots with question marks in them. Vlad is already a question mark. I'd only deal one for an overwhelming return.

We disagree. You have two pitchers in their 30’s with previous injuries. You don’t wait for it to happen again. Take advantage of the moment and get value for one. That’s the better way to build.

Greene and Lodolo are top pitching prospects. They both have had AAA experience. In terms of talent level, they probably are at or near their peak. Keeping them both at AAA for some extended gestation period is a waste.

Stephenson, Reed and Romano were different pitchers. Those guys should have been made relievers years earlier. You can’t be stuck in neutral because of those decisions. Move forward.

[REDREAD]

Another huge question is.. Miley has an option for next year.
Will the team pick it up?
As silly as it sounds, I think Miley's no hitter increased the odds of the option getting picked up. Now he's a "Fan favorite".
Will ownership/front office try to improve the team, try to just tread water (we were contenders this year), or try to shed more salary..
I mean, I can totally hear them say that the Reds overextended themselves and lost money when they picked up the 3 relievers at the deadline, and all the raises due people, so some salary needs to be cut. (Castanallos leaving won't be enough).
Unfortunately, I doubt they have the cuts to just cut Shogo either, even though both Aquino and Deshields are better players (not that they are great but better than Shogo)
They already have a sponsor running a commerical with Shogo and how wonderful it is that the Reds are being diverse, so I can't see them cutting him.
Plus, they don't want to alienate those 20 people that wave the Japaneese flag around
So that's a roster spot wasted next year.

Agreed that Senzel should be penciled in as a supersub. If he stays healthy enough to win an everyday job, great.. but I would not count on it.
Sadly, I bet he's already being counted on to be the starting CF next year.

[REDREAD]

I think there are crazy if they don't let Lorenzen walk. When he is healthy he is average at best. Would much rather sign Givens.

I think the Reds should try to resign Lorenzen at a "fair" price, as he is good bullpen depth.. But yea, no way overpay for him or offer him a QA.

[Chip R]

Who said anything about paying him $19 Million??? I'd bring him back at his current Salary. He missed most of the year. Raise will be minimal.

They can't bring him back at on or around the same salary unless they give him a qualifying offer and he rejects it - and he would have no reason to reject it. It's like Trevor Bauer's situation from last year. The Reds made him a qualifying offer, he rejected it because he rightly knew he could make more as a free agent. But the Reds still wanted to re-sign him. We all know what happened to Bauer and the Reds got an extra draft pick out of it. But Lorenzen would take that qualifying offer in a New York minute.

[Kc61]

I think the Reds should try to resign Lorenzen at a "fair" price, as he is good bullpen depth.. But yea, no way overpay for him or offer him a QA.

Lorenzen is gone unless there is no market for him and he comes real cheap. Unlikely.

Reds aren’t paying him his current $4.4 million or anything like it. Different if he was a bona fide closer.

I could see Reds re-signing Givens to be closer. They’d pay more for that role and Givens has done well. They have to sign at least one serious reliever.

[citizen]

You know...at one time I could predict pretty much like clockwork what the front office would do. Over the last couple of offseasons...not so much. I will be very surprised if castellanos doesn't execute his option. I will also be very surprised if he does that and the reds are seriously in the bidding.

I've been surprised before.

If they lose Castellanos and don't replace him with someone close to his output, I'm not sure the rest matters much unless you think the combination of Suarez, Senzel, Barrero make up the difference, which is not so likely IMO.