Reds' Tragic Number is 11. Any combination of Cards' wins and Reds' losses totaling 11 and our team is eliminated from playoff contention. For example, if the Cards go 9 and 5 the remainder of the way, the Reds must lose no more than 1 game the rest of the way . The Reds would have to go 11 and 1 to finish in a tie with the Cardinals. Think of it this way. If we let x be the number of remaining Cards' wins and y be the number of remaining Reds' losses, then x plus y must equal 10 or less.
Cards : 8W and 6 L , Reds would need to go 10 and 2 to force a one game playoff with the Cards;
Cards: 7W and 7L , Reds would need to go 9 and 3 ;
Cards 6W and 8L , Reds would need to go 8 and 4;
Cards 5W and 9L , Reds would need to go 7 and 5 ;
and so on and so on ...
Let's say the Birds lose 3 of four to the Brewers and split the four gamer at Wrigley. That's 5 losses . If they lose 2 of the remaining six at home against Brewers and Cubs to close out the season, that's a total of 7 losses. The Reds would need to win 9 of their remaining 12 to force a one game playoff with the Cards(all of this assumes the Reds remain ahead of the Phils and Padres, which should happen if they win 9 of 12).
Bottomline, I can't see the Cardinals doing worse than 7 and 7 from here on out. Therefore, no more than 3 losses the rest of the way for the Reds. How about let's do this? Sweep the Pirates , three of four against the Nationals, one of two against ChiSox , sweep the Pirates. Finish 10 and 2 ; Cards finish 7 and 7. We win the wildcard!!!!!!
Have I cheered you up or depressed you more???