i sure woukd like to see a Reds team with a chip on tgier shoulder come this spring

[GAC]

Larry is being sarcastic. Nothing in his post was serious.

I know that. I know Larry (lol)

[Patrick Bateman]

Sometimes knowing things and getting them right isn’t based in minutiae and doing the homework. Sometimes it’s simply a matter of understanding basic principles: You have two teams with similar amounts of talent—one has a history of executing when it matters, the other hasn’t in 30 years. At some point culture is destiny. Ok, maybe I don’t drill down into every reliever’s abcxyzWAR+, but I don’t need to.

If the aim is to be accurate, persuasive, and credible, then I (and I think most here) would need more to be convinced and why we run into these circular arguments.

The cards have a run differential basically dead equal to the Reds this year. The quality of the baseball actually performed by these teams and the history of the noise and randomness in this sport shows that blindly following the win/loss record is not a proper representation, unless your going to also convince us the Mariners are a truly impressive team as well.

Yes, you’re going to get some right when you make enough predictions, and isn’t really an impressive feat worth playing scoreboard and playing show and tell with your bias.


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