Trade target: Cedric Mullins

[Tom Servo]

The Orioles center fielder hit .291/.360/.518 this season with 30 HRs and 37 doubles, and stole 30 bases for good measure. In a slightly funny stat this resulted in just 59 RBIs as he hit at the top of the anemic Orioles lineup. The Orioles are building for years down the road and they might decide the most value that the emergence of their 27-year-old CF could provide is for bringing in even more young talent to their pipeline. It's hard to say for sure if they'll entertain offers but assuming teams will ask, the Reds should be one of them.

What I like about possibly acquiring Mullins is that while it would certainly take a package of young talent to land him, it would likely come cheaper than some of Mullins peers at the top of MLB hitting categories on account of Mullins lack of a track record. It may have been only one great season so far for him, but it was a one where he hit well in the first half (.921 OPS) and in the second half (.822 ops), and even held his own against LHP as a LH batter (.788 OPS). Some metrics don't love his defense but nobody really questions his ability to play a strong center field. This is a guy who was the top outfielder in the AL in fWAR, and he's up there in most major offensive categories.

Now if the O's were prepared to listen on him, I'd probably put most guys on the table with few exceptions. I'd probably want to keep Hunter Greene, but beyond that I'd say make recent first rounders (Lodolo, McLain, Hendrick, etc) available and see how things could match up. It would be risky, I'm always leery about these guys who come out of nowhere and suddenly hit like crazy, but the reward of a young, still cheap player to solve the CF issue, pair with India at the top of the Reds lineup, and boost offensive production significantly would be extremely high too.

[Kinsm]

Say goodbye to Greene.

But yes this is one of the outfield targets they could target via trade this winter.

[DocRed]

Who was the poster who brought his name up earlier this year? Turns out he was right and he had a monster year. That being said at this point he's a player that I don't want to buy at his all-time high now. He would be outrageously expensive from a prospect standpoint. You're talking about a nearly 6.0 bWAR player who is controlled for 4 years and isn't even arb eligible next year. If I were the Orioles I would ask for India and a top prospect. Might as well target Juan Soto while your at it...

[REDREAD]

Great target. Would certainly fill the hole the Reds have in CF.

If the O's want Barrero + some other prospects, do you do it?
I probably would, considering I am guessing Farmer is the favorite to start at SS due to loyalty.
I'd rather have Mullins playing CF than Barrero. My guess is that right now, Reds are planning on filling CF and RF with Senzel and Barrero.
I hope not, but if I had to guess...

[Kc61]

Let’s do a reverse of a previous OFer trade with the Orioles. Let’s trade them today’s equivalents of Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun, and Dick Simpson.

[westofyou]

Let’s do a reverse of a previous OFer trade with the Orioles. Let’s trade them today’s equivalents of Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun, and Dick Simpson.

Mahle, Sims and Aquino is about as close as we can get... if the Reds had 19 year old Jim Palmer in AAA I'd definitely do it today

[backbencher]

Tough player to value.

Career minor league OPS of .749. Age 27 MLB OPS of .878. How likely is he to put up another .878? To stick on the same team, Anthony Santander is the same age and had an .890 OPS in 2020.

If you are the Reds, do you trade for as if he is a replicable, salary-controlled .878? To really make the comparison fun, Mullins' #7 similarity score on Baseball Reference is Nick Senzel. (First three are Jeff Abbott, Harold Ramirez, Lou Dials.)

If you are the Orioles, why would you take less? Next year, you are sitting on Mullins, Mountcastle, Rutschman, Santander at the top of your order. You're going to need a significant incentive to give up a controlled .878 fan favorite. Senzel, Lodolo, Ashcraft? Even if that is enough value, what's the Orioles' incentive?

[kaldaniels]

Damn first day of the off-season and Servo is bringing the heat.

But yeah, the Orioles don’t have to trade Mullins so Greene or bust as far as they are concerned.

They can’t be perpetually rebuilding…Mullins is a guy they need to build upon…or be absolutely blown out of the water.

[*BaseClogger*]

Shout out to membengal, who IIRC suggested this trade target midseason in another thread and was chastised for it...

[Assembly Hall]

I am leery of any trades involving the Orioles...

[Kc61]

I don’t see Reds giving up the prospects this deal would probably take. Greene, Lodolo, and Barrero are very close to the big leagues. Reds are salivating to have them in the bigs as controllable, pre-arb, exciting youngsters. I don’t see them trading from that group for a near-arb player with fewer years of team control.

I could see Reds trading their first pick, McClain, in a package for Mullins. McClain, Hendrik, Ashcraft, something like that, probably not enough.

[CaiGuy]

I would tend to think that he is an unrealistic target, but it does seem like rebuilding teams these days are willing to trade anything that isn't bolted down for whatever they can get, regardless of the product on the field. So you never know. But I would think that it's counterintuitive to trade away anybody close to major league ready.

Maybe they could dangle a package of Senzel, Hendrick, and a good, but far away, pitcher and see if that gets their attention.

[Kc61]

I would tend to think that he is an unrealistic target, but it does seem like rebuilding teams these days are willing to trade anything that isn't bolted down for whatever they can get, regardless of the product on the field. So you never know. But I would think that it's counterintuitive to trade away anybody close to major league ready.

Maybe they could dangle a package of Senzel, Hendrix, and a good, but far away, pitcher and see if that gets their attention.

I assume you mean Austin Hendrick. I don’t think that package gets you a return phone call. Hendrick didn’t do that well this year, ton of strikeouts.

Problem is Reds and O’s want the same thing - cheap, MLB-ready, controllable talent. Not a great matchup unless Reds decide to sell the farm for 2022, highly unlikely.

[JCM11]

Likely way too risky for what he'd cost in prospects. Mullins had a first half OPS of .921 riding a nearly .360 BAbip. His second half OPS was .822 on a .278 BA bip, and I wouldn't be surprised if he settles in that range moving forward. If he's in the middle of those numbers the next 4 years he'd be worth moving at least two of our top 5 prospects for. I'd rather spend $ on a FA than the prospect capital it would take to land Mullins(unless the O's are stupid and under sell him).

[RedTeamGo!]

Shout out to membengal, who IIRC suggested this trade target midseason in another thread and was chastised for it...

I think he was chastised for how he reacted when people dared to even remotely question him