The problem with deals like this is that while you fix one hole, you create one or two other holes that you need to fill. If you decide to trade Barrero, Greene, or Lodolo, most likely, you have created another hole that will need to be filled before Opening Day.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
Even if Greene is off the table I think the Reds have a number of interesting guys to include in a deal - Lodolo/Barrero, Senzel, Aquino, Hendrick/McClain, Hinds and Ashcraft. A team like Baltimore could pull the trigger on a mix of high end prospects (Lodolo/Hinds) and ready to plug pre arb guys (Senzel/Gutierrez).
Not sure I see the Reds giving up so much young, controllable talent for one piece. I so see some minor trades involving one or two of the guys mentioned above though.
Not sure I'd want to trade for a guy coming off what is almost certainly going to be his career year. Worth noting that his actual wOBA was .372, but his expected wOBA* was .343. That difference was the 8th biggest among 132 qualified batters in MLB this year.
*xwOBA is based on contact quality (batted ball angle, velocity) and, where relevant, batter speed. No single season performance measure is super predictive, but it is a better measure of the skill he displayed in 2021 than straight wOBA is.
A .343 wOBA is still very solid, but it's Javy Baez or Trevor Story (or Tyler Naquin) territory, rather than Paul Goldschmidt or Giancarlo Stanton.
I'd probably peg him as something closer to a 3 WAR player moving forward. Still a reasonable trade target if you can get him at that price, but I doubt you could.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
He may not replicate this season, but he just finished his age-26 season — his first full year as a Major Leaguer — and broke out. It's not unreasonable to see him as a 4 WAR player with a year or two of 5-6 WAR on a reasonable contract through his prime. Those kinds of guys are exactly who I'd sell the farm for. I've lost all faith that any minor leaguers will pan out and am content to just be surprised when one does.Originally Posted by RedsManRick
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
Buying Mullins right now would be similar to buying Bitcoin at $60,000
What would you say.....ya do here?
DocRed (10-05-2021),Falls City Beer (10-05-2021)
The problem is the Orioles aren't gonna accept 4 WAR in return...nor should they
Eh, it's more like buying a brand new truck right now. You're going to way overpay because of scarcity, but it's still a brand new truck.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
The Reds need to find 2020 Cedric Mullins, not 2021 Cedric Mullins. As I keep saying, mid market teams can’t pay retail for new players. The only way they succeed is to be smart and find bargains.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
DocRed (10-05-2021)
You said that about spending money on free agents. Now you're saying that about spending prospects on cheap players too? You're really running out of options.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
Butttttttt it’s going to a million!
RedTeamGo! (10-05-2021)
Every team in baseball wants and is trying to find 2020 Cedric Mullins. Heck they are trying to find 2020 Jonathan India as well. It’s just not that easy and frankly a lot of good fortune is needed - of course that doesn’t mean you don’t try.
So far as Mullins goes it would cost Greene at the top of the return. Going by the book, that seems very fair. Would I do it - I don’t know - I think Greene is special and tend to want to keep him, a potential big time #1, and let the chips fall where they may.
Revering4Blue (10-05-2021),texasdave (10-05-2021)
It’s just a reality. The Reds don’t have the same options as big market teams. They have to be smarter, like the Brewers, Indians, Rays and A’s, in order to compete. They can’t just be smart, they have to be smarter.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
So no acquiring great players, only players who are about to be great. Got it. Somebody get Krall on the Horn, we've cracked it.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
When was the last time a mid market team acquired a great player at retail price, either in salary or prospects?
I’m sure someone can come up with an example, but the point is it’s extremely rare.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Is that before or after it’s uncovered how much of a scam it is?
What would you say.....ya do here?
kaldaniels (10-05-2021)
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