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Thread: 2021 Qualifying Offers

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    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    2021 Qualifying Offers

    The 2021 Qualifying Offer figure will be announced in the coming days, it's expected to exceed 19M$ for the first time. This is the fifth and final year the QO is covered by the present Collective Barganing Agreement set to expire right after Thanksgiving. No one knows whether the current QO system will survive into the next CBA, though some form of team compensation is likely to be in it nonetheless.

    As you can see below, in the 9 previous years that the QO has existed covering 2 CBA's; 96 players have been tagged with an offer and 10 have accepted.


    Historical Qualifying Offers:

    2012 - 13.3M$ - 9 offered / 0 accepted
    2013 - 14.1M$ - 13 offered / 0 accepted
    2014 - 15.3M$ - 12 offered / 0 accepted
    2015 - 15.8M$ - 20 offered / 3 accepted
    2016 - 17.2M$ -10 offered / 2 accepted
    2017 - 17.4M$ - 9 offered / 0 accepted
    2018 - 17.9M$ - 7 offered / 1 accepted
    2019 - 17.8M$ - 10 offered / 2 accepted
    2020 - 18.9M$ - 6 offered / 2 accepted
    2021 - 19.4M$ estimated


    Which players are eligible for the qualifying offer?

    Only those who …

    A. Have never received a qualifying offer previously in their career, and

    B. Have spent the entire season on that team's roster (so in-season acquisitions are ineligible)

    The "A" stipulation here applies to several free agents this winter, most notably Alex Cobb, Kevin Gausman, Zack Greinke, Kenley Jansen, and Marcus Stroman. The "B" stipulation applies to players such as Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Danny Duffy, Eduardo Escobar, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber. And Nelson Cruz and Max Scherzer apply for both A and B, having been extended the qualifying offer in the past and been traded this summer.


    What kind of compensation pick will a club that loses such a player receive?

    It depends.

    Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2022 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

    If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

    If the team that loses the player went over the luxury-tax threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed (as with the previous scenario, it doesn't matter how much the player signs for).


    Are there still penalties for signing players who rejected qualifying offers?

    Yes.

    Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. However, a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, which is the most notable change that went into affect with the new system. Three tiers of Draft-pick forfeiture -- which are based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer:

    • A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

    Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.

    • A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick.

    Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.

    • A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.


    The 2021 off-season could see a record number of Qualifying Offers...

    Below is a list of the players that will/may be tagged with a QO this winter....

    --Brandon Belt, Brandon will enter FA as a 34 year old and has dealt with nagging injuries nearly every year but he has been solid when he does play, a 1 year deal at a slight raise wouldn't be the worse thing for SFG if the lifelong Giant were to accept it so I believe he'll get tagged if not extended beforehand

    --Mark Canha, if it weren't for the playoff hunt he likely would have been traded mid season - the late blooming 1B/OF will enter FA as a 33 year old this winter, given his age, lack of power, and the fact that it's OAK it's unlikely he gets tagged but still possible

    --Nick Castellanos, Nick is still owed at least 34M$ over the next 2 seasons with the Reds but he has the right to opt out and seek a new contract that could potentially triple that figure coming off a career year entering FA as a 30 year old, if/when he opts out CIN will certainly tag him with a QO

    --Michael Conforto, the former first rounder will enter FA as a 29 year old putting up a very pedestrian 101 OPS+ season, NYM have already stated they plan to tag him as they aren't scared about having him back on a 1 year deal if he were to accept

    --Carlos Correa, a career 127 OPS+ entering FA as a 27 year old - he's a lock for a QO by HOU

    --Anthony DeSclafani, Tony needed to have a bounce back season and sure has as he posted a 129 ERA+ in 2021 - he'll enter FA as a 32 year old looking to cash in on his success, likely an on the fence candidate but if SFG believes he can repeat this season why not tag him

    --Freddie Freeman, a career 138 OPS+ entering FA as a 32 year old - he's a lock for a QO by his lifetime org ATL

    --Avisaíl García, Avisail has a mutual 12M$ option with a 2M$ buyout this winter that he'll assuredly decline - he'll enter FA as a 31 year old, not a great deal of risk here for MIL if they offer him a QO as he's going to be looking for a multi-year deal this winter - worst thing is they have him back on a 1 year deal slightly overpaid

    --Jon Gray, Gray will enter FA as a 30 year old coming off a rather league average season 8W/12L 4.59 ERA, the Rockies could have traded him midseason but kept him meaning it's highly likely he'll be tagged with a QO

    --Raisel Iglesias, Raisel will enter FA as a 32 year old looking to bank a large multi-year contract in the 3-5 yr and 12-18M$ per range, not a huge gamble on LAA's part if you ask me

    --Clayton Kershaw, the future hall of fame pitcher is entering FA as a 34 year old and he's injured but there is no reason to believe LAD won't tag him as news is he won't need surgery

    --Yusei Kikuchi, his first half performance is a major reason why SEA was in the hunt this year - the former NPB all-star will enter 2022 as a 31 year old, SEA holds a package of 4 years and 66M$ worth of club options on him that they must decide on shortly - the same package then comes with a 1 year 13M$ player option, it's likely that SEA declines their portion and if Kikuchi then declines his player option SEA would likely then tag him as they won't mind having him return on a 1 year deal given their few commitments next season

    --Kwang-hyun Kim, Kwang-hyun's above average performance this season especially at home helped push STL into the playoffs - Kim will enter FA as a 33 year old, the left handed KBO all-star has exceeded STL's expectations from when they initially signed him but a 19M$ gamble for 2022 is likely too much for them to offer a QO

    --Corey Kluber, Corey is still an excellent pitcher when he's healthy but that's becoming rarer and rarer - Kluber will enter 2022 as a 36 year old and has dealt with numerous injuries over the past 3 seasons, possible but probably not likely that NYY tags him

    --J.D. Martinez, J.D. is under contract for 1 more year at 19.375M$ in 2022 but he has the right to opt out and enter FA as a 34 year old, if/when he opts out BOS would be rather foolish not to tag him with a QO that is likely to pay him the same amount he's forfeiting to reenter FA

    --Charlie Morton, Charlie is sure to get some CY votes this season as a major asset in the Braves postseason hunt - he will be entering FA as a 38 year old and will likely be limited to a 1-3 year deal via FA, Chas failed to be tagged each of the last 2 seasons but ATL is not TBR I look for them to tag him

    --Buster Posey, Buster will turn 35 years old next year - he has a 22M$ club option for 2022 with a 3M$ buyout, SFG could conceivably decline the option and tag him to get compensation if he were to sign elsewhere but it's likely they just pick up the option or extend him

    --Robbie Ray, having a career breakout this season leading the AL with a 154 ERA+ will enter FA as a 30 year old, he's a lock for a QO by TOR

    --Carlos Rodón, he's coming off an off-season in which he was non-tendered and has been hurt this year but there is no legitimate reason to believe CHW won't offer him a QO as he enters FA as a 29 year old as he's pitched well enough to be welcomed back at a 1 year, 19M$ contract if he accepts

    --Eduardo Rodríguez, after not playing in 2020 Eduardo put up another season similar to the 2019 season he had in which he finished 6th in the AL CY vote - he'll enter FA as a 29 year old, BOS will very likely tag him with a QO as there is no harm in having him back on a 1 year deal

    --Corey Seager, the younger Seager will be entering FA as a 28 year old with a career 131 OPS+, he's a lock for a QO by LAD

    --Kyle Seager, the older Seager has a 20M$ team option with a 2M$ buyout for the 2022 season - if declined he'll enter FA as a 34 year old, SEA could conceivably decline the option and tag him but if they do so he could be back at a salary higher than had they simply exercised the option when factoring in the buyout - I think his option is declined and he's not tagged

    --Marcus Semien, couldn't have had a better year entering FA as a 31 year old putting up a 133 OPS+ this season, he's another lock to be tagged by TOR

    --Trevor Story, he had a slightly down year and will enter FA as a 29 year old, COL didn't shop him this summer so there is no reason to believe COL won't tag him

    --Noah Syndergaard, Thor will be entering FA as a 29 year old - he just recently saw his first big league action after undergoing TJS in May of 2020, if he's healthy there is no reason why NYM won't offer him a QO

    --Chris Taylor, Chris has posted a 114+ OPS with the Dodgers during his career - the 2021 super utility All Star selection will enter FA as a 31 year old, hard to believe money bags LAD won't offer him a QO

    --Alex Wood, Alex is finally showing that he's healthy posting a 10 win performance in 26 starts with the Giants this season - he'll enter FA as a 31 year old, a strong chance he'd accept a QO as it would be a 16M$ raise over his 2021 salary and his injury history will likely limit the amount of years he can get via FA but SFG might be okay with that

    --Justin Verlander, the future hall of famer is entering his age 39 season and has missed two seasons in a row due to injury, if HOU doesn't believe his elbow injury isn't super serious then a 1 year acceptance of a QO wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them
    Last edited by Kinsm; 10-05-2021 at 09:08 PM.

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    I've been interested for a while in Conforto as a Cast replacement in the OF. Especially coming off a mediocre year and being price conscious Although I would still rather have a quality defensive CF even though the realistic FA options just aren't there. You can very likely get Conforto and a decent BP arm for the $17M that Cast would have earned.

    EDIT: I didn't know that the NYM are willing to QO him though...seems like a risk to me. He's another dude that is a bad defensive OF'er but oh well...Cohen is well known for making bad decisions and spending money where it shouldn't be spent.
    Last edited by DocRed; 10-05-2021 at 09:51 PM.

  5. #3
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    HOU owner announced today likely tagging Verlander.

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    ESPN is reporting the QO has dropped. Might make it even more palatable for teams to tag players.

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    I didn't realize Cast could be tagged.

    That was a really smart contract by the Reds. There was some risk, but they get 2 peak years out of him and a draft pick.

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    $18.4M vs $18.9M last year

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    $18.4M vs $18.9M last year
    Castellanos is a no-doubter QO.

    Right?

    Surely even the Reds won't cheap out to that extent.

    Right?

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Castellanos is a no-doubter QO.

    Right?

    Surely even the Reds won't cheap out to that extent.

    Right?
    You would think so...

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  16. #9
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Reminder:

    The fifth day after the end of the 2021 World Series (tentative) is the deadline for clubs to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents (the morning after the end of the 2021 World Series).

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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    I could see Castellanos opting out and then accepting a QO to get that tag off his back.

  18. #11
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    I could see Castellanos opting out and then accepting a QO to get that tag off his back.
    Not a chance

  19. #12
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Not a chance
    There's a better chance that the new CBA will do away with the QO system.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  20. #13
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Seattle has announced they’ll decline Kyle Seager’s club option. Almost zero chance of a QO.

  21. #14
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Mlbtr——

    With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

    Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
    Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
    Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
    Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
    Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
    Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
    Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
    Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
    Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
    Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
    Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
    Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
    Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
    Justin Verlander, Astros (link)

  22. #15
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Qualifying Offers

    Raisel got a QO? He better be all over that.


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