Make Your 2021 Cincinnati Reds' Win Total Prediction

[Kinsm]

I held off a couple of weeks longer than I normally do just to see how COVID would effect the season, looks like a definite go for now.

Make your selection and if you have the cajones to back it up - please post your figure in the comments section!!!

This poll will lock in 4 weeks!

[mth123]

76 wins. The defense will let too many runs in and wear out the pitching staff. The offense has too many up and down all or nothing hitters. The team has good arms throughout but too many unprovens in the pen, an iffy back of the rotation and the defense is going to run up the pitch count on the main guys with too many innings being left to secondary guys. With this defense, this staff is going to need to average over 10 Ks per 9 innings to have a chance IMO and their 2 best strike-out guys from last year, Bauer and Iglesias, are both gone.

My beacon of hope is Suarez slimmer, more mobile look and a hope that Nick Senzel steps forward. Those guys could move this team into the 80 to 82 range, but unless expanded play-offs are implemented, I see this team as a seller in July.

[Bourgeois Zee]

80 wins.

The pitching stays largely the same, as Castillo and Mahle take major steps forward, and the bullpen becomes a strength. (This helps to offset struggles from the fifth starters.)

The offense improves slightly as well, in most positions. Senzel stays relatively healthy. He, Moustakas, Castellanos, Winker, Suarez, and Votto all have wRC+ above league average. Unfortunately, the one-two punch of 110 games of Barnhart (75 wRC+) and a roster of putrid-hitting SS (45 wRC+ across all PAs) torpedo a promising season.

By the end of the year, Castellanos, Moustakas, Lorenzen, Bedrosian, and Gray are all jettisoned for prospects. (Only Gray brings back top-100 prospects, and those are 50 FV types.) The Reds talk up India (who has a promising half-season in AAA as an infield utility guy) as a possible SS or 2B replacement. Garcia too, though he struggles again against off-speed pitches off the plate. Tyler Stephenson has some solid power and patience numbers in limited ABs. Heineman has a good season, though it's also in limited ABs. (Krall talks him up as the third OF with Senzel and Akiyama in a revamped defense-first push.) Greene and Lodolo progress in fits and starts. Both remain fully healthy all season.

Reds' fans pin their hopes on spending $50 - $55M of that freed up salary, but Cincinnati ownership (through Krall) talk of the need for fiscal responsibility after yet another season where they lost tens of millions of dollars.

They do not provide proof for that claim, though they do announce a higher-than-expected bonus given to team owners because they hadn't gotten one in a while.

[HokieRed]

Looks like a .500 ballclub to me, not really outstanding in any area. If there's a surprise, I'm going to guess it's to the upside. I'd see it happening this way: Castillo really moves to elite level, Mahle does throw 96 consistently and becomes a 2, two backend starters emerge not named Miley or Lorenzen, bullpen depth is better than it has been, Senzel stays healthy and has a breakthrough year, Votto puts up .830, and Jonathan India puts in a strong claim for a starting spot somewhere by June 15. I think all those things can happen; they're more likely than the usual preseason "ifs." If they do, Reds could win 88 games.

[Bob Sheed]

This looks like an 80 win team, but that has as much to do with a weak NL Central as the lack of effort on the Reds part to shore up glaring weaknesses.

It seems like collusion sometimes...

[reds77]

The loss of Bauer hurts more than people realize, 74 wins and another losing season.

[RichRed]

Smells like 80 wins to me.

[CarolinaRedleg]

83. The offense rebounds somewhat as some of last year's strugglers revert back to form but the pitching slides a bit. Still, enough talent to win more than they lose, even with a band-aid at SS.

[cumberlandreds]

78

Just too many question marks in the starting pitching and offense. Also SS is a problem that may not be corrected until Garcia is ready which may be another year away.

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78

Just too many question marks in the starting pitching and offense. Also SS is a problem that may not be corrected until Garcia is ready which may be another year away.

[NeilHamburger]

86. Antone is for real and stabilizes the rotation. I think Cast and Moose rebound.

[UKFlounder]

72 wins, hoping I’m way too pessimistic

[Kc61]

78 wins, although the trade deadline could be a factor in final W-L.

If Reds contend, they’ll need to be buyers, team isn’t quite playoff strong. If Reds don’t contend, finances may indicate selling off.

Assuming the current roster, main concern is pitching. Last year’s staff was excellent, I see a drop off to “pretty good” this year, potentially costing a few wins.

[Rdirtypirates]

75

[Coopdaddy67]

76 wins.

The defense isn't going to be pretty.

Losing the DH further complicates matters offensively and defensively. Nobody benefited from it in the NL more than the Reds last year.

I think pitching is going to be a much bigger problem than people realize.

[Strikes Out Looking]

77-79 wins at most and that's a reach- unless they figure a way to get a major league shortstop between now and May 1.