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Thread: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

  1. #46
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    The 7 day average for global daily reported Covid cases ticked up between Octomber 17th and 18th. That's the first time that has happened since August 30.
    Does two days in a row make it a trend?


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  3. #47
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Does two days in a row make it a trend?
    Three times establishes a pattern, IMO.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Does two days in a row make it a trend?
    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Three times establishes a pattern, IMO.
    I wouldn't read much into that yet. Numbers for Oct 18 and 19 are less than numbers from the same day a week ago. The 7 day avg is far below where it was a week ago (91K--->79K) source : NY Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

  5. #49
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Cases are falling nicely here in Ohio. Cases are down 20% from one week ago

    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...21/5940261001/

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I wouldn't read much into that yet. Numbers for Oct 18 and 19 are less than numbers from the same day a week ago. The 7 day avg is far below where it was a week ago (91K--->79K) source : NY Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html
    Global reported cases Sea Ray. US numbers are by all measures still on the decline at this point.

  8. #51
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Anecdotal personal story from me:

    A week ago an employee of mine's adult daughter came down with C19 and tested positive. This employee is in shaky health (congestive heart failure) in her upper 70s and lives in an apartment with this daughter. Prior to this she was in close contact, even sharing a spoon in the kitchen to taste what they were cooking less than 24 hrs before the positive C19 test.

    Well a week later my employee is still doing great. Not even a sniffle. Conclusion: Moderna works. She was vaccinated along me and other employees in January.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Global reported cases Sea Ray. US numbers are by all measures still on the decline at this point.
    My apologies.

    What's driving this globally?

  10. #53
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    My apologies.

    What's driving this globally?
    Probably the Ruskies

  11. #54
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Yeah, Russia isn't helping. The UK cases are on the rise. I don't see anything crazy anywhere, but also we're right now talking about very small increases in numbers that have been declining for two months. So it is still subtle. For now.

    But it looks like Europe may be poised to surge again, and European surges have tended to be the largest (outside of the US and India....and probably China if they were more transparent).
    Last edited by Boston Red; 10-20-2021 at 03:45 PM.

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    Member BernieCarbo's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    I've read several headlines and articles about the relationship between cases and vaccination rate, and the anti-vaxxers in general are desperately clinging to this as some kind of evidence that the vaccine isn't working. What they are ignoring is the ultimate indicator: the number of dead guys.

    I picked a few random states that I know have a high vax rate, and compared them to Ohio, which isn't doing very well, and Alabama, which is awful. Here are some numbers:

    Population:
    Maine: 1.3M
    NH: 1.4M
    Mass: 7.0M
    Ohio: 11.7M
    Ala: 5.0M

    Vaccination Rate:
    Maine: 70%
    NH: 63%
    Mass: 69%
    Ohio: 51%
    Ala: 44%


    Cases 7 Day avg:
    Maine: 883
    NH: 544
    Ala: 834
    Ohio: 4054
    Ala: 530


    Deaths 7 day avg:
    Maine: 4 (3/million)
    NH: 3 (2.1/million)
    Mass: 12 (1.7 million)
    Ohio: 85 (7.3/million)
    Ala: 56 (11.2/million)

    So, in the states with a lower vax rate, 3x-5x as many people die every day. I wish I knew what the horse dewormer consumption was per capita, but I'm guessing it is inversely proportional to the vaccine rate.

  13. #56
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Three times establishes a pattern, IMO.
    Well, a pattern has been established.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...


  15. #58
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Well, a pattern has been established.
    I'm expecting another surge during northern hemisphere winter.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    The 52k cases reported today in the UK is the second-highest number of cases reported there in the last 9 months. It's the population-adjusted equivalent of the US reporting 254k cases (which we've only done 4 times in the entire pandemic and not since January 9th).

    On the big plus side, UK death rates are still basically microscopic. The seven day average stands at 136 right now, which is approximately 10% of the average when cases were at similar levels back in January. It's good evidence that the correct strategy is soon going to be to stop worrying about number of cases.
    Last edited by Boston Red; 10-21-2021 at 02:50 PM.

  17. #60
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XV - Mr. Ed can't find his medicine...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    The 52k cases reported today in the UK is the second-highest number of cases reported there in the last 9 months. It's the population-adjusted equivalent of the US reporting 254k cases (which we've only done 4 times in the entire pandemic and not since January 9th).
    Let's hope this is a sign that their AZ vax is not as effective as our Moderna and Pfizer vaccines and not a sign of things to come here. Looks like UK hasn't hit 52K since last Winter either


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