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Thread: Projected Arbitration Salaries

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Projected Arbitration Salaries

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-for-2022.html

    1 Tyler Naquin $3.6MM ($1.5MM)
    2 Luis Cessa $1.6MM ($1.05MM)
    2 Luis Castillo $7.6MM ($4.2MM)
    2 Amir Garrett $2.2MM ($1.5MM)
    2 Jesse Winker $6.8MM ($3.15MM)
    2 Tyler Mahle $5.6MM ($2.2MM)
    3 Kyle Farmer $2.2MM ($0.64MM)
    3 Jeff Hoffman $1.1MM ($0.5855MM)
    3 Lucas Sims $1.2MM ($0.5985MM)
    4 Nick Senzel $1.1MM ($0.5805MM)

    The numbers on the left represent the number of arbitration years available (including 2022). The numbers in parentheses are 2020 salaries. If all the players are retained, we can expect around $19MM in salary raises through arbitration.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Initial thoughts:

    1. Those are generally pretty reasonable numbers.

    2. I assume they're not keeping Garrett, and that price tag would be another good reason to see if they can trade Farmer.

    3. That definitely leaves room to negotiate extensions with Castillo and Mahle.
    Now begins the winter of our discombobulation.

  5. #3
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-for-2022.html

    1 Tyler Naquin – $3.6MM ($1.5MM)
    2 Luis Cessa – $1.6MM ($1.05MM)
    2 Luis Castillo – $7.6MM ($4.2MM)
    2 Amir Garrett – $2.2MM ($1.5MM)
    2 Jesse Winker – $6.8MM ($3.15MM)
    2 Tyler Mahle – $5.6MM ($2.2MM)
    3 Kyle Farmer – $2.2MM ($0.64MM)
    3 Jeff Hoffman – $1.1MM ($0.5855MM)
    3 Lucas Sims – $1.2MM ($0.5985MM)
    4 Nick Senzel – $1.1MM ($0.5805MM)

    The numbers on the left represent the number of arbitration years available (including 2022). The numbers in parentheses are 2020 salaries. If all the players are retained, we can expect around $19MM in salary raises through arbitration.
    Thanks for this. So when they say the savings from Casteallanos is getting reallocated and the team adds nobody this is where its going.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    If the Reds truly are being run similarly to the Rays, they'd probably get rid of everyone not named Castillo, Winker, and Mahle (and maybe even one of those guys). They'd look for either one big salary guy in an area of weakness or undervalued prospects. If they aren't run that way and are instead run via the typical Cincinnati paradigm:

    Tyler Naquin $3.6MM ($1.5MM)
    Depends on the role the Reds foresee. If he's a fourth OF, they'll keep him for $3.6M. If he's a fifth OF, probably not. I'm guessing they see Shogo as a sunk cost, Friedl as a solid possibility, and Senzel as the starter. That means he'll either be the starting RF (ugh) or sent packing.
    Most Likely: Your starting RF

    Luis Cessa $1.6MM ($1.05MM)
    Easy value here, even more pretty solid money. Cessa's been sneaky good for a couple seasons and was really good last year. The Rays would put him at "starter" or closer and look to deal him somewhere around the All-Star break.
    Most Likely: Set-Up guy #1

    Luis Castillo $7.6MM ($4.2MM)
    Easiest call among them all, IMO. I'd look to deal him for monster value, similar to Tampa's dealings of all those would-be aces they've dealt. Past Red front offices would keep him until he's making $20M then lose him via free agency. Regardless, he's a hugely valuable chip.
    Most Likely: Starter #1

    Amir Garrett $2.2MM ($1.5MM)
    Too expensive for the degree of uncertainty, IMO. Almost certainly a case of too much cash for the Reds. Unlikely to even garner much as a trade chip. Sigh.
    Most Likely: Released

    Jesse Winker $6.8MM ($3.15MM)
    Great value. Easy call. Especially with uncertainty surrounding Castellanos and CF.
    Most Likely: Your starting LF

    Tyler Mahle $5.6MM ($2.2MM)
    Great value. Easy call. I'd keep him one more season, hoping to see a big year.
    Most Likely: Starter #3

    Kyle Farmer $2.2MM ($0.64MM)
    Before this season, this would have been a hard no. Now? I'm fine with Farmer as the backup infielder. But I'd like it even more if he were a backup SS and the second-string catcher.
    Most Likely: Backup #1/ 3rd string C

    Jeff Hoffman $1.1MM ($0.5855MM)
    I'd lean toward yes, if only because I think he can be a really solid performer out of the pen-- and perhaps not kill you as a spot starter if you're desperate. The Reds probably won't see it that way.
    Most Likely: Released

    Lucas Sims $1.2MM ($0.5985MM)
    Pretty easy yes, IMO. Next season will be the key. Probably not my closer, but he'd be a set-up guy. If he's not a set-up guy, I'm looking for a deal now.
    Most Likely: Set-up man #2

    Nick Senzel $1.1MM ($0.5805MM)
    Another pretty easy yes. Even as a fifth OF or backup IF, $1.1M is a relative bargain. I like him to bounce back, but I'd protect him with another would-be starter, for sure.
    Most Likely: Trade bait
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 10-15-2021 at 04:17 PM.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    I could see Naquin being jettisoned and Schrock isntalled as the LH half of a RF platoon. I'd keep Naquin, but I like Schrock as well. A platoon with Senzel where Senzel plays against some RH pitchers and Schrock makes sense and could provide some savings for the Reds.

    Garrett is the obvious non-tender. I think everyone else is a keeper at those prices.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I could see Naquin being jettisoned and Schrock isntalled as the LH half of a RF platoon. I'd keep Naquin, but I like Schrock as well. A platoon with Senzel where Senzel plays against some RH pitchers and Schrock makes sense and could provide some savings for the Reds.

    Garrett is the obvious non-tender. I think everyone else is a keeper at those prices.
    This, I think they cut Naquin loose unless they trade him first.

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    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    I actually see them all being retained with the exception of:

    1) Garrett- easy call for sure not worth the 2.2 million here.

    2) Hoffman- 50/50, as they may go cheaper with a minor league arm, but 1.1 is not bad for a swing guy in the pen.

    3) Luis Castillo- I see him as trade bait for sure, we only unload him if we get a huge haul of prospects ala the mat Latos deal.

    ex: Reds trade: Luis Castillo

    Padres trade: Robert Hassell(OF) #43 mlb prospect (A+), Robert Gasser(LHP) #10 SDP prospect (A), Efrain Contreras (RHP) #23 SDP prospect (AA) and Austin Adams (RHRP) MLB

    thats the only way I trade Castillo!

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by schroomytunes View Post
    3) Luis Castillo- I see him as trade bait for sure, we only unload him if we get a huge haul of prospects ala the mat Latos deal.
    The Padres hardcore lost the Latos deal. I don't want to be on the receiving end of that. Also, if the Reds are making that kind of deal, then just get rid of everybody and I can stop paying them any attention as I've got no bandwidth to be back into another lengthy rebuild.
    Now begins the winter of our discombobulation.

  13. #9
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Fangraphs has integrated Roster Resource. It includes a payroll tab which nicely lays out all contract data including estimate arb values for 2022. Good reference to keep bookmarked.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/reds
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-15-2021 at 10:02 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The Padres hardcore lost the Latos deal. I don't want to be on the receiving end of that. Also, if the Reds are making that kind of deal, then just get rid of everybody and I can stop paying them any attention as I've got no bandwidth to be back into another lengthy rebuild.
    That's debatable, as finding a well above average catcher seems to be as difficult (if not moreso) than finding a quality starting arm. (Where San Diego really screwed up was in dealing Grandal to the Dodgers. Woof, what a horrendous deal that turned out to be.)

    If the Dodgers want to bite on, say, a Tony Gonsolin, David Price, prospect CF Andy Pages, and Scott May for Castillo, Shogo, and Moustakas, that'd make sense, perhaps for both clubs.

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    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I could see Naquin being jettisoned and Schrock isntalled as the LH half of a RF platoon. I'd keep Naquin, but I like Schrock as well. A platoon with Senzel where Senzel plays against some RH pitchers and Schrock makes sense and could provide some savings for the Reds.

    Garrett is the obvious non-tender. I think everyone else is a keeper at those prices.
    Id punt Hoffman, Garrett, and Sims. Time to clear out the pen. Or at least force some original thinking as to how to improve it.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    That's debatable, as finding a well above average catcher seems to be as difficult (if not moreso) than finding a quality starting arm. (Where San Diego really screwed up was in dealing Grandal to the Dodgers. Woof, what a horrendous deal that turned out to be.)

    If the Dodgers want to bite on, say, a Tony Gonsolin, David Price, prospect CF Andy Pages, and Scott May for Castillo, Shogo, and Moustakas, that'd make sense, perhaps for both clubs.
    But San Diego getting impatient with Grandal as he stumbled (particularly his throwing issues), got injured, got suspended early on is part of the whole package. You get these unready kids for their growing pains and then you've got the impossible choice of determining whether there's something on the other side worth waiting for. That trade was the centerpiece of a rebuild that never paid off. They also parted with Anthony Rizzo because Yonder Alonso was coming to town. Ouch.

    Though creative trade idea. I could get behind that.
    Now begins the winter of our discombobulation.

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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    I figure Reds will negotiate and sign all except Garrett.

    I doubt they will trade or extend any of them, they represent good value for next season.

    The tough part for the Reds isn’t this group, it’s the more expensive group under contract - Moose, Suarez, Gray, Miley, Akiyama. I’d expect the Reds to try and move one or more of that group to reduce salary/improve payflex.

    I didn’t include Cast and Barnhart, whom I assume will be gone., or Votto who’s a mainstay.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-15-2021 at 06:23 PM.

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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Moose, Suarez, Gray, Miley, Akiyama. I’d expect the Reds to try and move one or more of that group to reduce salary/improve payflex.
    I think they keep Miley and Gray.
    If they can make Moose, Suarez or Akiyama go away without taking on a similar white elephant in return it will be a great offseason for Bob.
    I think they bring back all the arbs except Garret and he goes all Raisel on them next year.
    I'm on record as it wouldn't hurt my feelings if they brought back Barnhart or Cast, but it will surprise me.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Projected Arbitration Salaries

    Here's the thing with Reds salary dump trades - they are awful at them.

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