Projected Arbitration Salaries

[M2]

I’d go with it being much worse.

The starting pitching might keep it from being a disaster, but it's got a very 2019 feel to it. It certainly would have a deep basement if the SPs had some injuries.

[REDREAD]

They don't even need to do that. Both Warren and Santillan showed enough to be declared closer, with the other as a set-up guy.

Closer: Warren
Set-up: Cessa
Set-up: Santillan
Set-up: Sims
LH Middle relief: Wilson
RH Middle relief: Hoffman
Long relief: Gutierrez or San Martin (with Greene in the rotation)

That leaves Cionel Perez as a possible third lefty, AAA closer Dauri Moreta, and newly-healthy Brandon Bailey as possible last options out of the pen.

Fwiw, that provides at least five optionable arms (Warren, Santillan, Gutierrez, Moreta, and Bailey), not to mention Jared Solomon (who was throwing near triple digits when he went for Tommy John) and Riley O'Brien in reserve in AAA. Speaking of AAA, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo will be there as well, biding their time.

I fully expect the Reds to tinker around the edges of the roster at most this off-season. Barnhart's replacement will, I fear, be the big news. They're going to bank on kids moving positions and coming back fully healthy.

Just wait until the first article of the spring mentions Suarez and Senzel working out in right field...

I am not sure if you are joking or not. Not being disrespectful, but this is basically what they tried to do for 2021, and it was a disaster.
The last 3 guys are bad, that leaves you possibly 4 good arms (you list as Closer/setup), no margin for error.
Sims is not a setup man, he's middle relief until he proves otherwise.
Santillan and Warren were good last year, but not enough time to lock them into a setup guy.
Ideally, you want them to be middle relief too.
Reds need to add at least 2 impact arms, push Warren/Santiallan/Sims back down to middle relief. It's nice to have good middle relief arms too.
The list above punts 3 bullpen spots, basically no upside unless Wilson rises from the dead.

[REDREAD]

I really hope not. For instance, if Nick Senzel is being cast as a starting OF again, I'm gonna hurl.

Well, I can see them projecting Barrio as starting CF and Senzel as starting RF and calling the OF "Fixed". Not sure if Naquin will be brought back to support them or not.
I hope not, but I think that's a possiblity.

[M2]

Well, I can see them projecting Barrio as starting CF and Senzel as starting RF and calling the OF "Fixed". Not sure if Naquin will be brought back to support them or not.
I hope not, but I think that's a possiblity.

That might break me. And, yeah, could happen.

[Chip R]

I really hope not. For instance, if Nick Senzel is being cast as a starting OF again, I'm gonna hurl.

What do you do with him then? All the infield spots are taken except for SS and Barrero and Farmer are the favorites for that.

[M2]

What do you do with him then? All the infield spots are taken except for SS and Barrero and Farmer are the favorites for that.

I'd trade him or find him a comfy spot on the bench. If the Reds really want to be in contention, they've got to make plans that aren't built around Nick Senzel. His best fit is with a rebuilding team with low team expectations and lots of chances to give.

[REDREAD]

I'd trade him or find him a comfy spot on the bench. If the Reds really want to be in contention, they've got to make plans that aren't built around Nick Senzel. His best fit is with a rebuilding team with low team expectations and lots of chances to give.

Agreed. Senzel needs to be treated like Naquin was in spring training.. In fact, that's a great analogy, given Naquin's injury history in Cleveland.
Senzel comes into spring training with no guarantees of playing time.. He's got to earn it.
It's probably too late to cash in on Senzel's potential in a trade, but I agree with you, he should be shopped this winter.
Maybe the Indians are still interested.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think a "platoon" of Naquin and Senzel makes lots of sense as a CF option, assuming they can't find a quality CF in a trade for Barnhart and/or Miley.

If Senzel can stay healthy, perhaps he can rediscover his minor league hitting ability. If not, he's the low end of a platoon, easily replaceable by TJ Friedl, Akiyama, or a waiver wire pick-up.

[M2]

I think a "platoon" of Naquin and Senzel makes lots of sense as a CF option, assuming they can't find a quality CF in a trade for Barnhart and/or Miley.

If Senzel can stay healthy, perhaps he can rediscover his minor league hitting ability. If not, he's the low end of a platoon, easily replaceable by TJ Friedl, Akiyama, or a waiver wire pick-up.

Naquin is a really bad defensive CF, arguably the worst in baseball last season.

[westofyou]

Naquin is a really bad defensive CF, arguably the worst in baseball last season.

Corner OF's hovering around age thirty are not a viable solution for CF, rinse and repeat.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Naquin is a really bad defensive CF, arguably the worst in baseball last season.

Yep.

The free agent market is barren.

I mean, completely.

We know the Reds aren't spending enough money to pry a good CF away from another team too.

So the best, I suspect, they can hope to do is to be slightly below average as a position.

Senzel, if healthy, is a pretty solid CF. He can caddy if need be. Naquin is a pretty solid hitter, if given enough rest.

Put them together, and you're probably somewhere around a 92 or 92 OPS+ with defensive marks around 20th in the league.

[Chip R]

Agreed. Senzel needs to be treated like Naquin was in spring training.. In fact, that's a great analogy, given Naquin's injury history in Cleveland.
Senzel comes into spring training with no guarantees of playing time.. He's got to earn it.
It's probably too late to cash in on Senzel's potential in a trade, but I agree with you, he should be shopped this winter.
Maybe the Indians are still interested.

I'd think more like the Diamondbacks or Orioles. Maybe the Rays if they think they can do make something of him and are willing to give up a low level prospect.

[M2]

Yep.

The free agent market is barren.

I mean, completely.

We know the Reds aren't spending enough money to pry a good CF away from another team too.

So the best, I suspect, they can hope to do is to be slightly below average as a position.

Senzel, if healthy, is a pretty solid CF. He can caddy if need be. Naquin is a pretty solid hitter, if given enough rest.

Put them together, and you're probably somewhere around a 92 or 92 OPS+ with defensive marks around 20th in the league.

Naquin can't field the position and Senzel's been a bad major league player (literally below replacement level). That can't be the plan. They need to trade for somebody. Perfectly willing for it to be a post-hype kid like Victor Robles and then have Friedl on hand as a fallback or platoon option. Yet Naquin and/or Senzel can't be the plan for a team that should want to get better and try to win something in 2022.

[WrongVerb]

Agreed. Senzel needs to be treated like Naquin was in spring training.. In fact, that's a great analogy, given Naquin's injury history in Cleveland.
Senzel comes into spring training with no guarantees of playing time.. He's got to earn it.
It's probably too late to cash in on Senzel's potential in a trade, but I agree with you, he should be shopped this winter.
Maybe the Indians are still interested.

The Padres were also interested. I wonder if they'd swap Myers and a good prospect for Senzel.

[Kinsm]

The Padres would give away Myers for nothing if they could. He’s a DH who is way overpaid.