What are the 2022 needs? Lets go ahead and allocate the resources.

[757690]

Honestly they have a good base (even minus Miley) with some GABP aided moves to fill OF depth and another veteran #4/5 starter. Most teams would love to have the Reds level of #1-#3 starters.

I have no confidence they will make those moves let alone communicate to the fanbase on the plan to inspire any level of confidence after the Miley PR disaster yesterday, but it's not a bad 2022 roster in current construct if there was any level of payflex and GABP aided vision to fill OF and pitching depth.

This basically is where I am at too.

The Reds had a horrible offseason last year, and still played a season that was fun to watch. I expect another fun season to watch, though it will be frustrating knowing that it could have been better if the front office has been willing to spend more in the offseason.

[757690]

I think quite a few teams will be in that mode given the revenue shortfalls the last two seasons

The Reds should have hit their expected attendance and revenue in 2021. It was lower only because they started the season with limited attendance due to Covid, which was expected. They cut the payroll by $30M before the season, so they really can’t justify cutting it any further. They probably will, but they won’t be able to justify it.

[mth123]

Barrero should be starting 140 games at SS next season especially now that they’re rebuilding.

After yesterday, I firmly believe he's the opening day CF..

India 2B
Winker LF
Stephenson C/DH
Votto 1B
Suarez 3B
Naquin/Senzel RF
Moose DH/Back-up Catcher
Farmer SS
Barrero CF

The rest of the bench- 2 of Schrock, Shogo, Aquino. Friedl. Aquino might be DH against LHP and the only RH bat,

They aren't adding anyone unless there are takers for Shogo and Moose and no one is taking those guys.

Rotation

Castillo
Mahle
Gray
Vlad or SanMartin
Greene (Lodolo in AAA)

Bullpen

Sims (CL)
Santillan
Wilson (L)
Cessa
Warren
Moreta
Hoffman
Scrap heap lefty or Perez.

Barrero moved to CF, Farmer keeps SS warm for a year or two. McClain considered SS of the future.

[757690]

According to Cots, the Reds project to have a payroll of $112M next season. That includes all the players already signed, all the arbitration player estimates, and the estimates for the remaining non-arbitration players.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1520401900

This assumes the Reds keep all their arbitration players, and that is unlikely. They certainly will non-tender Garrett, which would knock off around $2M. They might non-tender Hoffman, but he likely won't get much more than league minimum, so they probably keep him. I am guessing they keep everyone besides Garrett.

That puts them at $110M for next season. They finished last year with a $129M payroll. If they keep it there, that gives them another $19M to spend. I really doubt that they will cut payroll by another $19M, so I would expect them to spend most of that $19M. Everyone is expecting them to slash more payroll, but I just don't see it.

[Larry Schuler]

Yeah. I’ve been saying that in the other thread. Everyone is acting like the Reds are slashing payroll when they’re actually dropping players and letting players walk to keep their payroll the same or lower for next year.

[MoneyInTheBank]

According to Cots, the Reds project to have a payroll of $112M next season. That includes all the players already signed, all the arbitration player estimates, and the estimates for the remaining non-arbitration players.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1520401900

This assumes the Reds keep all their arbitration players, and that is unlikely. They certainly will non-tender Garrett, which would knock off around $2M. They might non-tender Hoffman, but he likely won't get much more than league minimum, so they probably keep him. I am guessing they keep everyone besides Garrett.

That puts them at $110M for next season. They finished last year with a $129M payroll. If they keep it there, that gives them another $19M to spend. I really doubt that they will cut payroll by another $19M, so I would expect them to spend most of that $19M. Everyone is expecting them to slash more payroll, but I just don't see it.

I don't want to speak for anyone else but the angst for me isn't the expectation of more payroll slashing. It's right there in your numbers. We are guessing but I'll go with your numbers. With $19M, they will need to replace (arguably) their top hitter, a middle of the rotation starter, a backup catcher and fix a bullpen that was putrid last year.

[Mitri]

After yesterday, I firmly believe he's the opening day CF..

India 2B
Winker LF
Stephenson C/DH
Votto 1B
Suarez 3B
Naquin/Senzel RF
Moose DH/Back-up Catcher
Farmer SS
Barrero CF

The rest of the bench- 2 of Schrock, Shogo, Aquino. Friedl. Aquino might be DH against LHP and the only RH bat,

They aren't adding anyone unless there are takers for Shogo and Moose and no one is taking those guys.

Rotation

Castillo
Mahle
Gray
Vlad or SanMartin
Greene (Lodolo in AAA)

Bullpen

Sims (CL)
Santillan
Wilson (L)
Cessa
Warren
Moreta
Hoffman
Scrap heap lefty or Perez.

Barrero moved to CF, Farmer keeps SS warm for a year or two. McClain considered SS of the future.

I doubt they saw enough of McClain to make that sort of foundational decision. My guess is they end up looking to trade Farmer, he could net them another lotto ticket and would save them couple of million. We'll see lots of Garcia, Alf Rod, Alejo Lopez and Max Schrock this season. Friedl and Senzel too.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I doubt they saw enough of McClain to make that sort of foundational decision. My guess is they end up looking to trade Farmer, he could net them another lotto ticket and would save them couple of million. We'll see lots of Garcia, Alf Rod, Alejo Lopez and Max Schrock this season. Friedl and Senzel too.

If they're going to tank, they should go whole hog. (Sigh.) I'm guessing they'll deal at least one of Castillo, Mahle or Gray, possibly all three. None will be here the next time they'll be competitive, and with the team they're going to field, none of them would even think of signing here anyway.

I'm guessing a normal front office could parlay Castillo into two top 100 prospects. Tampa might bite on Castillo for CF Josh Lowe or CF Vidal Brujan and Taj Bradley, for example. Seattle might bite on one of George Kirby or Emerson Hancock and Jared Kelenic for Sonny Gray. Tyler Mahle might well be available as well-- San Diego would be well-served to offer Robert Hassell and Mackenzie Gore for him.

Now, this front office probably won't do that. They'll want to tie at least one of them to Moustakas' contract and lessen the return substantially. The Seattle deal, then, becomes 1B Evan White for Gray and Moustakas.

I hate being a fan of the Reds.

[757690]

If they're going to tank, they should go whole hog. (Sigh.) I'm guessing they'll deal at least one of Castillo, Mahle or Gray, possibly all three. None will be here the next time they'll be competitive, and with the team they're going to field, none of them would even think of signing here anyway.

After the Iglesias trade, many here made similar conclusion that you are now making, and predicted that this was a sign that they were going to trade Castillo, Gray and Suarez. Extensive bandwidth was wasted on that narrative that proved to be false.

After last season, I think we can debate whether the Reds will use these savings to add more talent elsewhere. But if we are using last season to inform our beliefs, then there is no justification to believe that they will be cutting the payroll further.

[Bourgeois Zee]

After the Iglesias trade, many here made similar conclusion that you are now making, and predicted that this was a sign that they were going to trade Castillo, Gray and Suarez. Extensive bandwidth was wasted on that narrative that proved to be false.

Don't remember that at all.

[757690]

Don't remember that at all.

There were many other threads like this one, the first post says it all.

https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...Castillo+trade

Reportedly Gray, Suarez, and now Castillo?

I mean...c'mon.

[Bourgeois Zee]

There were many other threads like this one, the first post says it all.

https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...Castillo+trade

That was in direct response to the tweet and germane to the discussion at hand.

[757690]

That was in direct response to the tweet and germane to the discussion at hand.

Sherman, Heyman and others were spreading these rumors and they all turned out to be false. This board was lit up discussing this, with the majority believing the rumors. There were many other threads about it. It was basically all this board discussed for months. Many here were convinced the Reds were going to go into a full rebuild/tank mode. They clearly were wrong.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Sherman, Heyman and others were spreading these rumors and they all turned out to be false.

Which is why it was a germane conversation.

You're suggesting posters were making things up out of whole cloth, playing Chicken Little. That's not the truth of the situation, as you well know.

[757690]

Which is why it was a germane conversation.

You're suggesting posters were making things up out of whole cloth, playing Chicken Little. That's not the truth of the situation, as you well know.

I apologize if that is how my comments came across. I was just saying we had this same discussion last off season, based on similar actions by the Reds, and the conclusions that many posters drew from the Reds actions, ended up being inaccurate.