Time for scorched earth rebuild?

[SunDeck]

I think you are probably right, but if that’s what is, they should say so: “We’re building a lean, hungry pennant winner with exciting young players.”

You think a guy with this haircut and style is going to say that? Please.


On the other hand, he may think that is EXACTLY what he said.

[Ren Deagle]

Scorched earth rebuild? NO!
What the Reds need to do is address their weaknesses.
They need to improve the bullpen. At least one more quality short reliever and a couple good multi inning guys.
Defense is the one area where I'd say the most improvement belongs. The only good defensive outfielder they have is Akiyama. Weak in CF and RF. Very average at SS. Farmer did do a good job of catching the balls he got to, but what about the ones that he didn't get near? I'd cash that check now since he just had a career year.
Improve the ability to face LHP. It seemed like ANY LHP could beat the Reds last year.
Inconsistent starting pitching. This is what annoys me about Miley. He was consistent and yet he was dumped. Gray was injured and that clearly messed up his season. Castillo never seems to win in the first half of the season. And Mahle doesn't win in GABP. Its got into his head. What to do? I don't know after dumping Miley.

[REDREAD]

WAR lost from last year .. WAR is flawed, but a good ballpark
I'm not going to count Carberra and Deshields as they were pretty insiginificant.


Antone 2.1
Barnhart 0.2
Bedrosian -0.2
Blandino -0.3
Brach -0.6
Cast 3.2
DeLeon -0.5
Dolittle 0.6 (lol)
Freeman -0.5
Fulmer -0.2
Givens 0.3
Lorenzen 0
Miley 5.9
Feliz -0.6
Godeau 0.2
Heineman -0.2
Hembree -0.5
Hendrix -0.3
Osich 0.1
Payton -0.3

TOTAL = 8.4 WAR needs to be added just to make up for what they lost this year. That's a tall order, given that their budget is already maxed out.

On the bubble
Naquin 0.8
A Lopez -0.3
Garrett -0.3
C Perez -0.5
Romano 0

[Z-Fly]

WAR lost from last year .. WAR is flawed, but a good ballpark
I'm not going to count Carberra and Deshields as they were pretty insiginificant.


Antone 2.1
Barnhart 0.2
Bedrosian -0.2
Blandino -0.3
Brach -0.6
Cast 3.2
DeLeon -0.5
Dolittle 0.6 (lol)
Freeman -0.5
Fulmer -0.2
Givens 0.3
Lorenzen 0
Miley 5.9
Feliz -0.6
Godeau 0.2
Heineman -0.2
Hembree -0.5
Hendrix -0.3
Osich 0.1
Payton -0.3

TOTAL = 8.4 WAR needs to be added just to make up for what they lost this year. That's a tall order, given that their budget is already maxed out.

On the bubble
Naquin 0.8
A Lopez -0.3
Garrett -0.3
C Perez -0.5
Romano 0

Why is their payroll maxed out? Did they say that, or are we just assuming it? It might be incorrect, but a quick google search showed me that it was at $135 million last year and currently at roughly $105 million. I'm not saying you are wrong. I just am probably out of the loop. The funny part is, if you do a straight line inflation number, they should be able to be around $160-$170 million pretty easily. I realize it is not that simple, but it's interesting if nothing else.

[Kc61]

Owners probably see the Reds at a dead end. They won’t support more major spending. Yet as is, they are a .500 team without Castellanos, maybe worse.

So I expect Reds to step back, add some youth, and try to re-tool around a Greene, Lodolo, maybe Mahle - led pitching staff.

They are in decent position to do this since the farm system is in good shape. They are on their way to having more good young players to bring up.

The Reds will not admit to a rebuild. They’ll try to keep the team in decent shape during this period. I doubt this will reach the depths of 2015-18.

But I wouldn’t be focused on veteran adds. I don’t think they will add vets of great substance. My guess is we’re looking at another move or two that will make the club younger and cheaper.

This is based on the Reds’ own statements, the media’s expectations, and the moves to date. For example, if they were going for it, I doubt they would have let Wade Miley go.

I hope they do a good job of re-tooling.

[oregonred]

WAR lost from last year .. WAR is flawed, but a good ballpark
I'm not going to count Carberra and Deshields as they were pretty insiginificant.


Antone 2.1
Barnhart 0.2
Bedrosian -0.2
Blandino -0.3
Brach -0.6
Cast 3.2
DeLeon -0.5
Dolittle 0.6 (lol)
Freeman -0.5
Fulmer -0.2
Givens 0.3
Lorenzen 0
Miley 5.9
Feliz -0.6
Godeau 0.2
Heineman -0.2
Hembree -0.5
Hendrix -0.3
Osich 0.1
Payton -0.3

TOTAL = 8.4 WAR needs to be added just to make up for what they lost this year. That's a tall order, given that their budget is already maxed out.

On the bubble
Naquin 0.8
A Lopez -0.3
Garrett -0.3
C Perez -0.5
Romano 0

That's a whole bunch of meh and blech outside Cast and Miley and Miley's 5.9 career high WAR won't happen in any uniform next season. Naquin is a no brainer to bring back. Antone is injured so doesn't really apply

[InsaneinthBrame]

That's a whole bunch of meh and blech outside Cast and Miley and Miley's 5.9 career high WAR won't happen in any uniform next season. Naquin is a no brainer to bring back. Antone is injured so doesn't really apply

You are completely missing the posters point. They are talking about actual lost production that happened in 2021. It is not about if the players will preform to that level next year.

You need players to fill the innings and playing time these players had and if you do not get that much war the team will be worse.

[oregonred]

You are completely missing the posters point. They are talking about actual lost production that happened in 2021. It is not about if the players will preform to that level next year.

You need players to fill the innings and playing time these players had and if you do not get that much war the team will be worse.

No I get it, but you are simply back to filling in the Miley and Cast holes which were 9.1 of the 8.4 WAR noted. So the rest of the flotsam generated -.7 WAR

[InsaneinthBrame]

No I get it, but you are simply back to filling in the Miley and Cast holes which were 9.1 of the 8.4 WAR noted. So the rest of the flotsam generated -.7 WAR

In some respects the flotsam is where you can really improve the team.
Our negative war pitchers accounted for little over 200 ip for -2.3 fwar (some were young pitchers still with team)

[oregonred]

In some respects the flotsam is where you can really improve the team.
Our negative war pitchers accounted for little over 200 ip for -2.3 fwar (some were young pitchers still with team)

Yes, agree

Also Gray, Castillo, Suarez, Senzel and Moose had down years and several of them could be better than 2021. Also adding additional AB's from Stephenson over Tucker, etc.

Would be interesting if the Reds FO uses such WAR roster equation in any way shape or form in decision making and roster planning.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Yes, agree

Also Gray, Castillo, Suarez, Senzel and Moose had down years and several of them could be better than 2021. Also adding additional AB's from Stephenson over Tucker, etc.

Would be interesting if the Reds FO uses such WAR roster equation in any way shape or form in decision making and roster planning.

What I find numbers wise interesting is that in 2019 the negative war pitchers pitched 110 ip with -1.5 war. (2021 and 2019 the - war pitchers were relievers)

So basically last year the loss of Iglesias inning pitched went to negative war pitchers really shows how the front office screwed the pooch on building the bullpen. and I hope we do not see a repeat of that this off season

[REDREAD]

Why is their payroll maxed out? Did they say that, or are we just assuming it? It might be incorrect, but a quick google search showed me that it was at $135 million last year and currently at roughly $105 million. I'm not saying you are wrong. I just am probably out of the loop. The funny part is, if you do a straight line inflation number, they should be able to be around $160-$170 million pretty easily. I realize it is not that simple, but it's interesting if nothing else.

Ok, let me correct that.. It appears to me that payroll is maxed out, given that they dumped Miley for nothing and they are more willing to trade Castillo than ever before (according to a writer).
I guess we'll see who gets nontendered (or dumped before then).. That will be a stronger indicator.

[REDREAD]

That's a whole bunch of meh and blech outside Cast and Miley and Miley's 5.9 career high WAR won't happen in any uniform next season. Naquin is a no brainer to bring back. Antone is injured so doesn't really apply

Antone does apply. He contributed 2.1 WAR last year that needs to be replaced.
I listed all the negative WAR people to be fair.. There's opportunity to replace the negative WAR guys with positive WAR guys and make up some of that 8.4 WAR gap.
This is the amount of WAR needed to just tread water for next year.. Some might come internally (ie Senzel stays healthy all year). But it has to come from somewhere, otherwise the Reds are a below 500 team.