Turn Off Ads?
Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst 12345
Results 61 to 66 of 66

Thread: Calling all outfielders

  1. #61
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    45,734

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I am asking a question, not disagreeing.
    But if the Reds bullpen was awful and the Reds offense is pretty powerful, isn't that going to cause the "ballpark" effects be considered less favorable to pitchers?
    How can they possibly separate it out? Like suppose the Reds had the worst pitching staff and best offense in the league for 5 years, wouldn't that skew the ballpark factor.. since the home team would hit much better than average and the pitching staff would give up runs at a historic pace? Wouldn't that net out that the GAB ballpark heavily favors offense?

    I will say this though, the bullpen was awful. Look at the innings pitched by the duds (All rounded down) Garrett (47) Hendrix (31) Romano (20) Osich (14) Goodeua (9) Sims (47), Dolittle (38) CPerez (24) Hembree (42) Fulmer (25) Deleon (18) Blandino (3) Bedrosian (5) Feliz (6) Garcia (4) Brach (30)... that's 377 crap innings (for the most part)
    Add in that Hoffman pitched some relief innings of his 73 IP too.

    Quality innings? Warren (21) Cessa (26) Antone (33) Santillan (43) Givens (21) -> that's only 144 good innings.

    I left out Lorenzen (29 IP) because I am not sure if the majority of the board considered him good or not.
    If you want to move some of the "bad" innings to "Good", I can see that, but it shows that Reds got roughly 2.6 innings of bad bullpen pitching (not counting Hoffman) for every good inning.
    The short answer is the Reds' team characteristics can't really hijack the equation all that well. The long answer is it's a pretty busy equation that gets explained here - https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...rkadjust.shtml.

    Anyway, once you do the ballpark adjustment, the Reds' bullpen was pretty pedestrian. The park made the bad pitchers look awful, the so-so pitchers look bad and and solid pitchers look so-so. Taken as a whole, the pen's 4.99 ERA landed them just about at dead average. Sims, Doolittle and Hoffman all finished on the positive side with their ERA+. Sucky place to pitch. Can't stress enough how important it is to understand the funhouse mirror effect when evaluating this team. Also good defense would help tame that distortion.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  2. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (12-26-2021),REDREAD (12-27-2021)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #62
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    29,254

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The short answer is the Reds' team characteristics can't really hijack the equation all that well. The long answer is it's a pretty busy equation that gets explained here - https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...rkadjust.shtml.

    Anyway, once you do the ballpark adjustment, the Reds' bullpen was pretty pedestrian. The park made the bad pitchers look awful, the so-so pitchers look bad and and solid pitchers look so-so. Taken as a whole, the pen's 4.99 ERA landed them just about at dead average. Sims, Doolittle and Hoffman all finished on the positive side with their ERA+. Sucky place to pitch. Can't stress enough how important it is to understand the funhouse mirror effect when evaluating this team. Also good defense would help tame that distortion.
    Thanks for taking the time to explain, but I seriously have a problem with a system that puts Doolittle as average or above average. I can accept maybe Hoffman and Sims were better than they seemed, but Dolittle just gave up rockets constantly. Sure, he would occasoinally get a K, but the eye test said he sucked.

    It just seems that there have been previous years where the pen was much better than this, yet those better pens weren't necessarily lauded as such.

    Thanks for the link, I enjoyed reading it.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #63
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    31,936

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    the numbers show that a lot of teams had bad bullpens last year and the park is definitely a factor, but this bullpen ended up blowing a lot more games than in years past and it really didn't settle down until Givens, Cessa, Santillan and Lorenzen came along late in the season and others were pushed off the roster. Now both Givena and Lorenzen are gone and the other best performer from 2021 (Antone) won't be pitching in 2022. I think they have a solid start at a middle of the pen in Santillan, Cessa and Sims. Guys like Warren, Hoffman and Moreta seem fine for the long relief/AAA shuttle roles and Warren and Moreta might prove better than that. I'm not thrilled about Justin Wilson and Amir Garrett as the lefty options, though Garrett may bounce back by returning to his match-up lefty role and being used carefully. Wilson has been a decent lefty until last season, so given what is on the market, they may be about as good as we can get right now. They simply need to add a closer. They could try Sims in that role, but that makes the 6th, 7th and 8th innings more treacherous. They can't pitch every day, so they need 4 or 5 trustworthy guys who can get people out in the 6th, 7th and 8th inning to hold a lead as well as a somebody to pitch the 9th. I'd feel a lot better about this pen if they could bring Givens back.

    Guys are going to get injured, some will be terrible and some will be both. To get through a season, they need a lot more than 8 guys since Starters are basically 5 ad out these days even when they are pitching well. For example, if both Warren and Moreta make the opening day pen, that leaves no depth in AAA unless guys like Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft come up as relievers (an idea I'm not in favor of). I think adding Givens or some other guy to handle the 9th inning. Bullpen guys are mostly match-up guys to be used in certain situatioons. They can't be used against all comers, That's why they aren't starters. But, the closer needs to be able to pitch the ninth inning no matter who is coming up for the other team. You need a guy who is better than a match-up guy. Sims and Santillan seem like the only internal candidates but using either as the 9th inning guy leaves the rest of the pen too thin IMO.

    Lets assume Givens for now, that would leave the pen as

    CL - Givens,
    Set up guys /Firemen- Sims, Santillan, Cessa
    Lefties - Wilson, Garrett
    Long Relief - Hoffman
    AAA Shuttle/Wild Card - Warren, Moreta

    That pen would be OK. Without the 9th inning guy, it thins out way too much and match-up guys can't be matched up as well as they should be. That leads to a lot of blow-ups in the middle innings. I'd rather have an upgrade at lefty relief, but if Garrett bounces back and is used properly (and they get rid of the delusions that he can pitch the 9th and face all comers) he could be a solid late inning lefty again.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-27-2021 at 07:32 AM.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  6. Likes:

    REDREAD (12-30-2021)

  7. #64
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    North Dakota
    Posts
    2,864

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    the numbers show that a lot of teams had bad bullpens last year and the park is definitely a factor, but this bullpen ended up blowing a lot more games than in years past and it really didn't settle down until Givens, Cessa, Santillan and Lorenzen came along late in the season and others were pushed off the roster. Now both Givena and Lorenzen are gone and the other best performer from 2021 (Antone) won't be pitching in 2022. I think they have a solid start at a middle of the pen in Santillan, Cessa and Sims. Guys like Warren, Hoffman and Moreta seem fine for the long relief/AAA shuttle roles and Warren and Moreta might prove better than that. I'm not thrilled about Justin Wilson and Amir Garrett as the lefty options, though Garrett may bounce back by returning to his match-up lefty role and being used carefully. Wilson has been a decent lefty until last season, so given what is on the market, they may be about as good as we can get right now. They simply need to add a closer. They could try Sims in that role, but that makes the 6th, 7th and 8th innings more treacherous. They can't pitch every day, so they need 4 or 5 trustworthy guys who can get people out in the 6th, 7th and 8th inning to hold a lead as well as a somebody to pitch the 9th. I'd feel a lot better about this pen if they could bring Givens back.

    Guys are going to get injured, some will be terrible and some will be both. To get through a season, they need a lot more than 8 guys since Starters are basically 5 ad out these days even when they are pitching well. For example, if both Warren and Moreta make the opening day pen, that leaves no depth in AAA unless guys like Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft come up as relievers (an idea I'm not in favor of). I think adding Givens or some other guy to handle the 9th inning. Bullpen guys are mostly match-up guys to be used in certain situatioons. They can't be used against all comers, That's why they aren't starters. But, the closer needs to be able to pitch the ninth inning no matter who is coming up for the other team. You need a guy who is better than a match-up guy. Sims and Santillan seem like the only internal candidates but using either as the 9th inning guy leaves the rest of the pen too thin IMO.

    Lets assume Givens for now, that would leave the pen as

    CL - Givens,
    Set up guys /Firemen- Sims, Santillan, Cessa
    Lefties - Wilson, Garrett
    Long Relief - Hoffman
    AAA Shuttle/Wild Card - Warren, Moreta

    That pen would be OK. Without the 9th inning guy, it thins out way too much and match-up guys can't be matched up as well as they should be. That leads to a lot of blow-ups in the middle innings. I'd rather have an upgrade at lefty relief, but if Garrett bounces back and is used properly (and they get rid of the delusions that he can pitch the 9th and face all comers) he could be a solid late inning lefty again.
    This seems about right. But I don't expect Givens.

    If one of Lodolo/Greene/Ashcraft can crack the rotation that allows Reiver and Vlad to work out of the pen. Another veteran starter or reliever should would help.

  8. #65
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    45,734

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Thanks for taking the time to explain, but I seriously have a problem with a system that puts Doolittle as average or above average. I can accept maybe Hoffman and Sims were better than they seemed, but Dolittle just gave up rockets constantly. Sure, he would occasoinally get a K, but the eye test said he sucked.

    It just seems that there have been previous years where the pen was much better than this, yet those better pens weren't necessarily lauded as such.

    Thanks for the link, I enjoyed reading it.
    Doolittle's hard hit % was pretty high. Worst thing about him was he couldn't keep an inherited runner from scoring. That said, his neutralized ERA was 3.78. He was sort of doing that veteran, pitch-above-your-stuff routine. Yet getting away with it still looks ugly in the GAB. If you scroll down this page to the neutralized stats - https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...pitching.shtml - suddenly the Reds pitching snaps into focus.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  9. Likes:

    REDREAD (12-30-2021)

  10. #66
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    31,936

    Re: Calling all outfielders

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    This seems about right. But I don't expect Givens.

    If one of Lodolo/Greene/Ashcraft can crack the rotation that allows Reiver and Vlad to work out of the pen. Another veteran starter or reliever should would help.
    Vlad in the pen doesn't really solve any problems unless Hoffmjan needs replaced. He's not a guy I'd bring into any game with a lead. He could mop up games where they are way behind, but almost anybody could do that. Reiver might add some depth to the AAA shuttle and adds another lefty option. Personally. I think the best role for those guys is as sacrificial lambs in the rotation so they don't ruin Greene or Lodolo by sticking them in the rotation too soon.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  11. Likes:

    REDREAD (12-30-2021)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator