Calling all outfielders

[M2]

Offense wasn't the problem. It's probably still not the problem if Cast is signed elsewhere. The Reds had the 4th most runs scored in the NL and the highest OPS.

The pen was the problem.

Wins Above Average

Position players: -7.8
Bullpen: -1.0

The offense overall had an OPS+ of 93.

The GAB is a funhouse mirror. If you don't understand the distortion, you'll never fix the problems.

[Old school 1983]

I’m still interested to see what it would take to grab Victor Robles from the Nats. I don’t imagine it’d be a lot

[TRF]

Wins Above Average

Position players: -7.8
Bullpen: -1.0

The offense overall had an OPS+ of 93.

The GAB is a funhouse mirror. If you don't understand the distortion, you'll never fix the problems.

C is set. 1B is set. 2B is set. SS might be. 3B has two guys vying for time. LF is set.

That leaves CF and RF and what we KNOW is the Reds are lazy. So if an OF falls in their lap (Cast) great. otherwise it's Senzel, Naquin and Aquino.

And we KNOW that the pen is the real problem. Even an average pen could have made the difference in 8-10 wins.

[CaiGuy]

I’m still interested to see what it would take to grab Victor Robles from the Nats. I don’t imagine it’d be a lot

Senzel for Robles could be interesting. Change of scenery swap.

[Mitri]

Senzel for Robles could be interesting. Change of scenery swap.

I'd do that, but I wouldn't mind keeping Senzel and adding Robles by offering a few prospects (the Nats cupboard is completely barren).

[Old school 1983]

Senzel for Robles could be interesting. Change of scenery swap.

Idek if it’d even take that much, but I get the sentiment.

[M2]

C is set. 1B is set. 2B is set. SS might be. 3B has two guys vying for time. LF is set.

That leaves CF and RF and what we KNOW is the Reds are lazy. So if an OF falls in their lap (Cast) great. otherwise it's Senzel, Naquin and Aquino.

And we KNOW that the pen is the real problem. Even an average pen could have made the difference in 8-10 wins.

You might be right that the Reds are going to do nothing about their OF situation, but they were dead last in the NL in WAA for CFs at -2.4. They were also last at 3B, though they're paying two guys at that position and will surely hope one of them returns to the living. They were 13th in WAA in CF in both 2019 and 2020. Nick Senzel is venturing into being a test of the true definition of insanity. With Castellanos leaving, CF and RF are the two areas that need to be addressed. Jesse Winker also is a DH, which probably will return to the NL in 2022 (if they play baseball next year), in LF's clothing.

If the Reds were trying to play respectable baseball, the OF would be a priority. I laid out the numbers for you. The bullpen needs work too, but it actually was close to an average pen last season. The GAB just played so horrific a 4.99 bullpen ERA was close to average and a .759 team OPS was 7 percent below it. So the bullpen needs work mainly because it takes at least a couple of dozen pitchers to get you through a season. What you think you knew wasn't the most glaring problem with the team.

Actually, if you wanted to pick up wins somewhere, fixing the -4.8 dWAR would be a good place to start, and that's primarily an OF issue. Even if the Reds are going to be dirt cheap, they should look to mine a CF. And if they're sending some SPs packing in trade deals, then getting back some OF help would be smart business.

[TRF]

I'm not disagreeing completely. It's just my opinion that the historically wretchedly awful bullpen was more to blame than the OF or 3B. I think Barrero will be better than Farmer defensively at SS, but I really think he might be special in CF. But the Reds have no other SS aside from Farmer, and I'd rather see him as a super sub.

Maybe a deep dive shows the warts of the offense, but a blind man can see that the pen barely has a heartbeat.

[M2]

I'm not disagreeing completely. It's just my opinion that the historically wretchedly awful bullpen was more to blame than the OF or 3B. I think Barrero will be better than Farmer defensively at SS, but I really think he might be special in CF. But the Reds have no other SS aside from Farmer, and I'd rather see him as a super sub.

Maybe a deep dive shows the warts of the offense, but a blind man can see that the pen barely has a heartbeat.

There was nothing historic about the Reds 2021 bullpen. We've seen far worse. It graded out 4th in the NL in WAA. The Reds' guys just had the misfortune of pitching in a terrible ballpark (and with a garbage defense behind them). You keep repeating yourself, but the data points in another direction. No matter how many times you say the same thing, it's not going to be true. You're failing to grasp the ballpark effects.

[UPRedsFan]

There was nothing historic about the Reds 2021 bullpen. We've seen far worse. It graded out 4th in the NL in WAA. The Reds' guys just had the misfortune of pitching in a terrible ballpark (and with a garbage defense behind them). You keep repeating yourself, but the data points in another direction. No matter how many times you say the same thing, it's not going to be true. You're failing to grasp the ballpark effects.

M2 please explain a little more. I get the concept of park effects. But I don't know what WAA exactly means. Does the data show the bullpen was average or above average in away games? And does it show the offense was below average in away games?

[M2]

M2 please explain a little more. I get the concept of park effects. But I don't know what WAA exactly means. Does the data show the bullpen was average or above average in away games? And does it show the offense was below average in away games?

Wins Above Average. It's basically a different way to slice WAR data, using average instead of replacement as the baseline. BB-Ref runs a really useful chart on its league summary pages. Here's the 2021 NL page (just scroll down for the positional breakdown of WAA) - https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../NL/2021.shtml. It does not break it down home and away. The park effects show up more in the macro data.

[TRF]

There was nothing historic about the Reds 2021 bullpen. We've seen far worse. It graded out 4th in the NL in WAA. The Reds' guys just had the misfortune of pitching in a terrible ballpark (and with a garbage defense behind them). You keep repeating yourself, but the data points in another direction. No matter how many times you say the same thing, it's not going to be true. You're failing to grasp the ballpark effects.

I think perhaps you have forgotten that the ballpark hasn't changed in a while now. And in 2019, the pen was a lot better. Put it this way. Matt Bowman in 2019 was better than almost every reliever the Reds trotted out. Stephenson was an absolute STUD that year compared to EVERY RP the Reds has this year.

This year the Reds ran out 6 2019 Wandy Peraltas.

Yes, it's a tough park to pitch in. But the bulk of the relief innings this year were not a net positive. Even in the crappy 2015-2018 seasons, there were some really almost dominant performances from the pen. We barely got good from even a small part of it. It's easy to just blame the park, but if it's the park why was Miley successful? Why was the rest of the rotation? Why was 2013 a fantastic bullpen?

Because they didn't suck. This pen did.

[M2]

I think perhaps you have forgotten that the ballpark hasn't changed in a while now. And in 2019, the pen was a lot better. Put it this way. Matt Bowman in 2019 was better than almost every reliever the Reds trotted out. Stephenson was an absolute STUD that year compared to EVERY RP the Reds has this year.

This year the Reds ran out 6 2019 Wandy Peraltas.

Yes, it's a tough park to pitch in. But the bulk of the relief innings this year were not a net positive. Even in the crappy 2015-2018 seasons, there were some really almost dominant performances from the pen. We barely got good from even a small part of it. It's easy to just blame the park, but if it's the park why was Miley successful? Why was the rest of the rotation? Why was 2013 a fantastic bullpen?

Because they didn't suck. This pen did.

The ballpark effects are what they are, and the GAB somehow has gotten more brutal. Maybe it's due to global warming, maybe it will shift back to being a less Colorado-like kind of brutal. Doesn't really matter. The Reds bullpen in 2021 graded out at almost average even with a collective 4.99 ERA. That's due to park effects. Obviously, you FEEL a different way about it. What I'm telling you is the data doesn't reconcile with your feelings.

[TRF]

The ballpark effects are what they are, and the GAB somehow has gotten more brutal. Maybe it's due to global warming, maybe it will shift back to being a less Colorado-like kind of brutal. Doesn't really matter. The Reds bullpen in 2021 graded out at almost average even with a collective 4.99 ERA. That's due to park effects. Obviously, you FEEL a different way about it. What I'm telling you is the data doesn't reconcile with your feelings.

What I am telling you is dealing with data that has a human element involved and using absolutes is folly. Guys have left and gotten better, sure. some have left and gotten worse.

I don't feel the Reds pen sucked. I saw Hembree pitch. I saw Garrett pitch. I saw Doolittle pitch. I felt they could turn it around. Reality said otherwise.

[REDREAD]

The ballpark effects are what they are, and the GAB somehow has gotten more brutal. Maybe it's due to global warming, maybe it will shift back to being a less Colorado-like kind of brutal. Doesn't really matter. The Reds bullpen in 2021 graded out at almost average even with a collective 4.99 ERA. That's due to park effects. Obviously, you FEEL a different way about it. What I'm telling you is the data doesn't reconcile with your feelings.

I am asking a question, not disagreeing.
But if the Reds bullpen was awful and the Reds offense is pretty powerful, isn't that going to cause the "ballpark" effects be considered less favorable to pitchers?
How can they possibly separate it out? Like suppose the Reds had the worst pitching staff and best offense in the league for 5 years, wouldn't that skew the ballpark factor.. since the home team would hit much better than average and the pitching staff would give up runs at a historic pace? Wouldn't that net out that the GAB ballpark heavily favors offense?

I will say this though, the bullpen was awful. Look at the innings pitched by the duds (All rounded down) Garrett (47) Hendrix (31) Romano (20) Osich (14) Goodeua (9) Sims (47), Dolittle (38) CPerez (24) Hembree (42) Fulmer (25) Deleon (18) Blandino (3) Bedrosian (5) Feliz (6) Garcia (4) Brach (30)... that's 377 crap innings (for the most part)
Add in that Hoffman pitched some relief innings of his 73 IP too.

Quality innings? Warren (21) Cessa (26) Antone (33) Santillan (43) Givens (21) -> that's only 144 good innings.

I left out Lorenzen (29 IP) because I am not sure if the majority of the board considered him good or not.
If you want to move some of the "bad" innings to "Good", I can see that, but it shows that Reds got roughly 2.6 innings of bad bullpen pitching (not counting Hoffman) for every good inning.