Covid-19 Part XVI

[Todd Gack]

A tantalizing clue to why omicron is spreading so quickly







So it looks like there's preliminary science to back up the anecdotal evidence about omicron's severity. Good news.

I read this yesterday and it makes sense. It's apparent what's going to happen.

South Africa is basically telling the rest of the world "This isn't that big of a deal! Stop being so afraid." They got screwed by the travel ban too. It's almost like no one is listening to them.

I mean, it was NEWS in the UK when they reported their first Omicron death 3 weeks since it was identified. Cases have skyrocketed in SA but deaths have not increased, severe illness is not increasing, but hospitalizations have gone up and vent/ICU have gone up minimally there. I just don't know why I have people on my Twitter feed who are trying to instill so much fear into everyone.

You almost get the feeling some people don't want this to end.

[Sea Ray]

No way it gets thrown out before it gets started, it’s rather easy to sue someone.

You are making a lot of assumptions about everything. Based on what we do know, the most likely cause is the kid getting it from school and giving it to the father. Maybe they can find evidence that counters this, but it will take work. If the family wanted to sue the school, they would have a decent case. But I doubt they want to.

If it's so easy, why have we not seen a case of this kind? There've been millions of C19 cases. People love to sue for money. Live in the real world. There's a reason we're not seeing cases like this. If people could win millions of dollars it'd happen

[WrongVerb]

I read this yesterday and it makes sense. It's apparent what's going to happen.

South Africa is basically telling the rest of the world "This isn't that big of a deal! Stop being so afraid." They got screwed by the travel ban too. It's almost like no one is listening to them.

I mean, it was NEWS in the UK when they reported their first Omicron death 3 weeks since it was identified. Cases have skyrocketed in SA but deaths have not increased, severe illness is not increasing, but hospitalizations have gone up and vent/ICU have gone up minimally there. I just don't know why I have people on my Twitter feed who are trying to instill so much fear into everyone.

You almost get the feeling some people don't want this to end.

We all want this to be over. But wanting it to be over is irrelevant to the virus -- we don't have any control over reality just by thinking it. We have to do things, like getting vaxxed and masking up and taking it seriously. Pretending it's over -- as some here want to do -- doesn't make it be over.

[Boston Red]

The UK reported 78,610 new cases today. On a population-adjusted basis, that's the equivalent of the US reporting 383,628 cases in a day.

88,376 for the UK today, which would be the equivalent of 431,289 cases in the US.

[BernieCarbo]

We all want this to be over. But wanting it to be over is irrelevant to the virus -- we don't have any control over reality just by thinking it. We have to do things, like getting vaxxed and masking up and taking it seriously. Pretending it's over -- as some here want to do -- doesn't make it be over.

Many of us have taken it seriously, and no one is pretending it's over. But, it is over for the vaccinated, and to suggest otherwise is real concern trolling. There is absolutely nothing else that can be done to make it any better other than to just let people get it and hope for the best.

[757690]

Many of us have taken it seriously, and no one is pretending it's over. But, it is over for the vaccinated, and to suggest otherwise is real concern trolling. There is absolutely nothing else that can be done to make it any better other than to just let people get it and hope for the best.

The omicron variant is showing why it's not over for the vaccinated.

First, it has so many mutations, it will be awhile before we know it's true effect. All we have now is very limited data from South Africa. It could have a different effect here in the US or anywhere else. It may be much more deadly, even to the vaccinated here. We just don't know at this point.

Second, what we do know is that the booster is needed to provide the best immunity from omicron, so vaccinated now means, boosted as well. We also know that it is 7 times more contagious, which likely will lead to at least 7 times as many breakthrough infections. These may be mild, or they may by more deadly, we just don't know at this point.

Third, there are tens of millions of vaccinated Americans for whom the vaccines aren't as effective, and the pandemic is not over for them, regardless of what omicron can do.

Finally, omicron will not be the last variant. We likely will go through the entire greek alphabet. There is a strong chance that one of these variants will yield the current vaccine ineffective. We likely will be able to create a vaccine that protects against that variant, but it will take time, meaning more protocols, more staying home.

As long as so much of the world is not vaccinated, the pandemic is not over for anyone.

[BernieCarbo]

The omicron variant is showing why it's not over for the vaccinated.

First, it has so many mutations, it will be awhile before we know it's true effect. All we have now is very limited data from South Africa. It could have a different effect here in the US or anywhere else. It may be much more deadly, even to the vaccinated here. We just don't know at this point.

Second, what we do know is that the booster is needed to provide the best immunity from omicron, so vaccinated now means, boosted as well. We also know that it is 7 times more contagious, which likely will lead to at least 7 times as many breakthrough infections. These may be mild, or they may by more deadly, we just don't know at this point.

Third, there are tens of millions of vaccinated Americans for whom the vaccines aren't as effective, and the pandemic is not over for them, regardless of what omicron can do.

Finally, omicron will not be the last variant. We likely will go through the entire greek alphabet. There is a strong chance that one of these variants will yield the current vaccine ineffective. We likely will be able to create a vaccine that protects against that variant, but it will take time, meaning more protocols, more staying home.

As long as so much of the world is not vaccinated, the pandemic is not over for anyone.

You're just making stuff up, and every indication all over the world is that the unvaccinated are driving the infections. Since the death rate is about 1:100000, it is over for the vaccinated. We can play a game all day long about what could happen, but right now it's over for the normal people that took it seriously.

[RedTeamGo!]

That's the YOLO category in case you were wondering. I don't know anyone who has the luxury of cowering in a corner sipping on a protein shake, or living their life in a bubble, or whatever analogy you want to give it. We're all out there dealing with it.

I am, however, related to someone who liked their "1 in 100,000 chance because they got the shot" or whatever made up number they told themselves to deem it an acceptable risk... and he died from covid, fully vaccinated in a North Dakota hospital 2 weeks ago. Anecdotal? Fine. But you've kind of been the anti-SeaRay around here about this. Just daring covid to **** with you. "I did what I was supposed to do, and I do what I'm supposed to do, so bring. it. on."

That's fine too. I'm probably more superstitious than you because I would never tempt fate like that. You do you though.

Just wanted to say sorry about your loss, Bob. Hope your family is doing ok.

[M2]

A potential ray of sunshine concerning vaccinations. I live in one of the more highly vaccinated states in the nation. We right now are obliterating case number records. Our previous high for active cases was 98,000 back in January. We are now over 265,000. Yet our daily death totals, which averaged well into the 100s per day during the first wave and in the 50-80 range last winter has not risen in correlation with the case numbers. It has gone up, but it current sits at 25. You can see the various graph lines here - https://www.worldometers.info/corona...massachusetts/.

It is possible the death will be a lagging indicator and we'll see some scary numbers in the coming weeks. The number almost certainly will rise. Yet if you click the hospitalizations number here, it shows we're running well behind the first two waves on that front. From what I gather, it's brutal work in our hospitals just because they've been getting hammered for almost two years, but it's not as intense (yet) as previous editions.

It's been a Delta wave we've been getting the past four months, though Omicron probably will supplant it quickly. So the vaccines would seem to be having a positive impact in terms of keeping people out of the hospital and the morgue when something closer to a critical mass of people have them. There's a backlog of people trying to get the boosters, and they're preparing to open mass booster sites (e.g. at Fenway Park), so we'll probably be one the better boosted states too.

[Boston Red]

Our months of relative calm on the sports front with respect to Covid seem to be over. Lots of cancellations/postponements starting to pour in. No big deal to lose regular season college basketball, NHL, NBA games, etc., but I'm a little worried about the college football playoffs.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Our months of relative calm on the sports front with respect to Covid seem to be over. Lots of cancellations/postponements starting to pour in. No big deal to lose regular season college basketball, NHL, NBA games, etc., but I'm a little worried about the college football playoffs.

Yeah it would suck to have to play for a national championship missing several key players due to positive covid tests.

[bucksfan2]

Yeah it would suck to have to play for a national championship missing several key players due to positive covid tests.

I still get nightmares of Tuf Borland trying to cover Smith.

[Bob Sheed]

Just wanted to say sorry about your loss, Bob. Hope your family is doing ok.

I appreciate that. We weren't close. But I was told he was one of the few of family that lives out there that was vaccinated. Him dying from covid anyway probably has not helped convince those still unvaccinated, which is also a shame.

[RedTeamGo!]

I still get nightmares of Tuf Borland trying to cover Smith.

I don't think it would have mattered in the end, but people forget Bama had nobody out because of COVID and the Buckeyes had like 15 players, including most of their defensive line and depth out. Including their best defensive linemen. Fans of the school that won a natty with their third string QB cannot really complain too much, but facts are facts. I think with both teams healthy Bama would have only won by 10-14 points instead of 28 or whatever it was.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Sports are going to be an absolute disaster for the near future. NFL is putting back in place all their rules from last year. NBA about to do the same. Premier League discussing shutting down for a month. All sorts of players testing positive already and being held out.