Free agent faceoff: Nick Castellanos vs. Kyle Schwarber

[Ron Madden]

The top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. Both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)Bobby

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.

Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.

Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.

Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115M over five years, but prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60M over three years, not too far from the $70M over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...schwarber.html

[Ron Madden]

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

[westofyou]

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

Depends on if you need a RH or a LH, value walks over BA, HR's over Gap Power, want a long contract or a short one, feel comfy with a player who who demands to play defense and a player who is more pliable as long as he gets his AB's.

Then there is the draft pick, the park, the team fit...

[herbdizzle]

The Reds would never do it but I'd pay Castellanos his money even for 7 years. Our lineup with India winker cast and ty Steve for 5-6 years would be such a great foundation. Cast is only about to turn 30, and with the DH would age well.

[westofyou]

The Reds would never do it but I'd pay Castellanos his money even for 7 years. Our lineup with India winker cast and ty Steve for 5-6 years would be such a great foundation. Cast is only about to turn 30, and with the DH would age well.

I'm opposite, I would try hard not to give a guy at age 30 a seven year contract, especially one who walked once ever 15 PA's.

This is Cast vs a peer, one who makes 10 million a year, now both are older and maybe Cast outperforms age, but if a player is one who expects the post 30 years to be a pay day for the earlier cheaper contributions then I'd say the market for that doesn't deserve seven year deals, and maybe not 25 million a year either.

From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	OPS+
2013	2021	21-29	1086	4473	4109	540	1143	278	35	168	594	14	17	294	1030	0.278	0.329	0.486	0.814	1995	85	34	0	36	17	115
2011	2021	22-32	1128	4270	3908	503	1001	215	37	138	536	21	15	293	836	0.256	0.309	0.436	0.745	1704	53	22	13	34	22	99

[OldFashionedRed]

I wouldn't sign Castellanos. And it's not an emotional thing. His numbers don't bely a long term contract. Not if you're looking closely. I've already gone over in posts months ago why I wouldn't sign him.

[BCubb2003]

Which one’s from Centerville?

[Ron Madden]

Which one’s from Centerville?

Neither

But one is from Middletown

[15fan]

Talking to Castellanos means negotiating with Scott Boras.

Pass.

[klw]

Neither

But one is from Middletown

Wait, one of these two is from Middletown? Middletown, Ohio? How has this never been mentioned in a Reds broadcast? I wonder which one it is- I will have to go to baseball reference and look it up.

[WrongVerb]

Wait, one of these two is from Middletown? Middletown, Ohio? How has this never been mentioned in a Reds broadcast? I wonder which one it is- I will have to go to baseball reference and look it up.

There's a bird you can ask.

[klw]

There's a bird you can ask.

is it an owl? a superb owl?

[WrongVerb]

is it an owl? a superb owl?

[Big Klu]

[REDREAD]

Putting money aside (which, I know is not realistic). Cast is the superior player. Big difference between 4.2 WAR and 3.1 WAR player (last years numbers)
Cast plays better defense (even though he's not a gold glover by any means)
Schwaber did have a 374 OBP last year, but in the past (full season), his best was 356 and 339. That tells me that Schwaber was possibly pitched around a lot last year, which may or may not be repeatable. And I know this is old school thinking, but when one of your best hitters gets walked to get to a weaker hitter, that does not necessarily help the team, as the weaker hitter has a less chance of driving in the run. Now in Schwaber's defense, he did hit 291 last year (which surprised me).. But again, is that sustainable? If he tuned his swing to get a better average, then that changes the analysis. I honestly did not follow the dude enough to know. But before last year, his best average (full season) was 250. His career BA is 237 , career OBP is 343

Cast had an OBP of 362 last year, batting average of 309.. That's better, IMO. I prefer BA driven OBP. Carer: BA = 279 OBP 329

Cast has a career slugging of 486. Schwaber career slugging of 493, so slight edge to Schwarber there.

The defense is a big tipping point though. If they were equal defenders, it would be a tougher call. Schwarber is a huge defensive liablity.