Prospect Breakdown: Top Five Upside

[Bourgeois Zee]

I thought this portion of the board could use some discussion fodder and came up with some topics for consideration.

The Red minor league ladder has some especially volatile prospects. They could garner top 20 prospect status if they blow up, or they could end up never even sniffing the big leagues if they fail to fix their issues. Who are your top five highest upside Red prospects?

[RED VAN HOT]

I thought this portion of the board could use some discussion fodder and came up with some topics for consideration.

The Red minor league ladder has some especially volatile prospects. They could garner top 20 prospect status if they blow up, or they could end up never even sniffing the big leagues if they fail to fix their issues. Who are your top five highest upside Red prospects?

I'll get the discussion going. My five in no particular order:

De La Cruz. Opened a lot of eyes this year at a young age. Tools across the board. Likely to end up at 3B where he could be a ML starter.

Cerda. Needs to improve hit tool and cut K rate. Capable of handling CF. Could be starting ML outfielder.

Greene. Great makeup. Can't argue with FB, but needs to improve secondary stuff. Maybe take something off the FB for more movement. Could be #1 starter.

Hendrick/Hinds. OK, I'm cheating on this one. Both need to cut K rate and both have outstanding power. I lean toward Hendrick because he is a bit younger and better fielder.

Siani. I'm among the few that still believe. Plus CF'er. If he can OPS .750, he will be valuable for his glove.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I have the following:

1. Jay Allen
Yeah, Allen really impressed me with his production (in a very small 75-PA sample) in 2021. 14 SB in 15 tries indicates either a high baseball IQ or unrealized speed (or both). (Remember, Nick Senzel was scouted as an average runner when at Tennessee and had to show his elite sprint speed at the major league level before his scouting report changed.) With those numbers, visions of Eric Davis come to mind. And since Davis is perhaps the most talented player to ever play the game, I'm picking Allen. Hitting and arm strength were his biggest tools, according to draft experts, but he showed some real pop (3 HR and seven total extra-base hits in 61 ABs, along with a .557 OPS while playing as an 18-year-old in his first taste of professional ball? Yeah, that's solid) in his debut. A three-sport star in high school, if Allen has more in his tank-- as those who don't devote all their waking moments to baseball at that age often do-- he's going to be special.

Eric Davis special.

2. Hunter Greene
Greene has perhaps the loudest tool of anyone on the list. A 103 mph fastball masks a lot of mistakes. Last year, he was dominant in AA-- and what's more, he has more in the tank. If he can harness his delivery-- and there's every reason to believe he has the athleticism to do just that-- location will improve. He has also flashed a plus slider. added a cutter, and developed his changeup into a league average pitch. If he's consistent, he's a TOR ace. The only reason he's not number one is that Allen plays every day.

3. Elly De La Cruz
It's really hard not to put De La Cruz number one on this list. His power is breath-taking. His speed is easily plus. (At least right now.) His arm is too. Defensively, I'd move him to CF right now, as the Reds have a number of SS ahead of him, and I suspect he's capable of moving very quickly. Bat speed and plate coverage are both excellent. In fact, they're too good-- he chases so many balls he shouldn't. That's why he's number three on the list. Even if he's at his best, he likely doesn't have the hit tool (or patience) that Jay Allen does.

4. Austin Hendrick
Hendrick has no issues with patience. He often (IMO) exhibits too much of it. But that power is light pole plus. When he hits 'em, they stay hit, as the saying goes. His upside is as a low BA, high OBP HR and RBI champion cleanup hitter. Adam Dunn with Paul O'Neil's defense. For the defense alone, he gets the nod over another low BA, high OBP HR and RBI cleanup hitter in Rece Hinds. Hinds plays 3B-- which is undoubtedly harder-- but even if he fulfills his promise, only plays it passably. Hendrick could be a Gold Glove guy in RF if he finds his upside.

5. Joe Boyle
Want an out-of-left-field pick? Here's one. I went back and forth on who to choose here. Allan Cerda as a CF with 40 HR/ 20 SB plus defense potential was one guy I considered. Michael Siani-- a high BA, high OBP, SB champ and Gold Glove CF-- was another. Graham Ashcraft's mix of elite ground ball tendencies and high K rates augers for being a TOR ace. Lodolo's dominance in AA does as well. But I went with the 80 fastball of Joe Boyle. If he can harness his control issues (remember this is upside, so we can assume he'll be serviceable in that area), Boyle's a 15 K/9 ace.

Woof.

Now, he's fairly unlikely to do that. He's been trying for at least five years and hasn't gotten there yet. But it's in him to maybe get there, and that's what this list is all about. If he remains in the bullpen, he's prime Aroldis Chapman. If he moves to the rotation, he's another possible TOR ace.

[Mitri]

What if Jose Torres just keeps hitting? I know his defense and speed are very highly rated, which makes him an easy "high floor" pick, but I like him as a sneaky high ceiling pick as well.

A Torres that continues to show a clue at the plate is a player who instantly enters the Reds top-5 and likely becomes the heir apparent at acquiring the franchise SS tag.

[Bourgeois Zee]

What if Jose Torres just keeps hitting?

What's interesting is that the 2020 shortened season has kind of thrown a wrench into scouting and drafting prospects-- so much so that we can dream on Torres without feeling stupid in doing so. His two-year total PAs were less than half a season of professional ABs.

I love that he could well end up a dominant bat.