Prospect Breakdown: Top Five Highest Floors

[Bourgeois Zee]

Over the course of the last decade or two, major league baseball has gotten progressively better at identifying prospects who might end up with at least a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Compare the Reds' recent "success" in developing their first round and other high draft picks from the last 20 years to the desert of picks from the 1970s. (Woof.)

Who, in your opinion, is the most likely candidate who has not yet played in the major leagues to get that cup of coffee?

Who, in your opinion, are the five Red prospects with the highest floors?

I'd love to see your thinking here-- describe the carrying tool(s) possessed and how they translate to (relative) major league success. Explain how they'd fit if they only reach their floor (but remain healthy).

[RED VAN HOT]

Over the course of the last decade or two, major league baseball has gotten progressively better at identifying prospects who might end up with at least a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Compare the Reds' recent "success" in developing their first round and other high draft picks from the last 20 years to the desert of picks from the 1970s. (Woof.)

Who, in your opinion, is the most likely candidate who has not yet played in the major leagues to get that cup of coffee?

Who, in your opinion, are the five Red prospects with the highest floors?

I'd love to see your thinking here-- describe the carrying tool(s) possessed and how they translate to (relative) major league success. Explain how they'd fit if they only reach their floor (but remain healthy).

You're asking a lot of evaluation in the response. Of course, the floor for all prospects is career minor league player. Still, I think the following players are likely to have ML careers.

Alllen. He has both a high ceiling and high floor. With excellent athleticism and good tools across the board, I see his floor as a backup outfielder.

McLain. Not certain if he can be a regular ML SS, but he has enough glove to be an excellent backup infielder who could start to give other players an off day.

Lodolo. With excellent curveball and enough FB to keep hitters honest, floor should be as a back of the rotation starter.

Lopez. Hit tool should keep him in the majors. Pinch hitter, occasional DH and utility player will be his floor.

Moreta. Great success in minors. His ceiling could be a closer. His floor is a middle inning reliever.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Lopez and Moreta have already played on the parent club. They're ineligible.

The Allen pick is bold, IMO. He's got a long, long way to go-- and enough questions about his game to think he might never get there. Love the outside-the-box thinking and the erudite analysis about his plethora of tools. You convinced me to add him to my list of possibilities.

Speaking of, the only one I know I'll have on my list right now is Hunter Greene. Even if he fails spectacularly from this point forward, he can be a Robert Stephenson type middle relief guy. That fastball will play in pretty much any league at any time. I think he, like Lodolo, will be at least a BOR starter and is likely to be much, much more. He's an odd mix of safe and upside too. (Newsflash, he's on my biggest upside list as well.)

Others I'm considering are Lodolo (your analysis is spot on, IMO), Jose Torres (as a defensive caddy/ utility guy), Matt LcLain (good at everything), and Mark Kolozsvary (AAA catchers almost always make the show, and he screams Tucker Barnhart to me). Graham Ashcraft, Francisco Urbaez, Brian Rey, and Tyler Callihan are all possibilities as well.

[camisadelgolf]

Siani's defense combined with a semblance of a hit tool will get him at least a cup of coffee.

[mth123]

I'll go with Hunter Greene for all three questions. Highest Ceiling, Highest floor and best individual tool. I think the difference between him and every other prospect in the system is huge. Hope the Reds don't screw him up.

After him, I think Lodolo has the highest floor.

[RedTeamGo!]

I don’t think Hunter has highest floor simply because he’s already required TJ. He could blow out his arm tomorrow and never see the majors.

I’m going to go with McLain as highest floor. He will play in the majors in some capacity for at least 10 years.

[Revering4Blue]

I don’t think Hunter has highest floor simply because he’s already required TJ. He could blow out his arm tomorrow and never see the majors.

I’m going to go with McLain as highest floor. He will play in the majors in some capacity for at least 10 years.

Agree about Hunter Greene. While I agree with others about Lodolo's arguably highest floor among Reds prospects, IMO, McLain isn't far behind in that regard. Just a hunch - no logical supporting arguments/evidence - but I would not be surprised to see McLain in CF eventually if Barrero, as many expect, gains a stranglehold of the starting SS position. We shall see.

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[Bourgeois Zee]

I don’t think Hunter has highest floor simply because he’s already required TJ. He could blow out his arm tomorrow and never see the majors.

In the original post, I asked posters to consider health a given.

IMO, if Greene struggles with command, his 103 mph fastball and occasional plus slider and solid to above average cutter should mean he'll at least be serviceable as a setup guy in the bullpen. I'm not sure that Lodolo has that floor. In fact, I'd argue that Graham Ashcraft might have a higher floor than Lodolo, based strictly on his stuff (which is superior) and ground ball tendencies (which are elite). Ashcraft could be a closer right now. So could Greene. I'm not sure Lodolo could.

[powersackers]

Ivan Johnson will get his cup of coffee. Shed Long comp.


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[Bourgeois Zee]

Ivan Johnson will get his cup of coffee. Shed Long comp.

Good call on Johnson as a high floor guy. A 125 wRC+ usually augers well for at least a cup of coffee.

Not sure about the Shed Long comp though. I was thinking Drew Stubbs offensively. Maybe Brandon Phillips if we're all lucky.