Lockout Baseball: 2022 Dayton Dragon Roster?

[Bourgeois Zee]

I thought I'd take a shot at the possible starting players for each minor league squad if the parent club ownership decides it doesn't want to play major league ball. (As a result of that asinine decision, anyone on the 40-man roster would therefore be ineligible to play.) Let me know where I screwed up, where the prospects should be, and what you'd do instead. Those prospects in italics are top 15 guys.

C Daniel Vellojin/ Michael Trautwein
1B Ruben Ibarra/ Alex McGarry
2B Elly De La Cruz
3B Rece Hinds
SS Jose Torres
LF Blake Dunn/ Jack Rogers
CF Justice Thompson
RF Austin Hendrick

SP1 Thomas Farr
SP2 Evan Kravetz
SP3 Bryce Bonnin
SP4 Miguel Medrano
SP5 Joe Boyle

What's to Like: This might be the most talented roster Dayton has had since 2011. No, check that. This club has more talent. Five top-15 prospects and many others who project to hit the ball hard, run fast, and actually play a bit of defense. The starting staff might well be sneaky dominant too. This club could well lead the minor leagues in HR and has four prospects with 60 grade power.

Under the Radar Guy to Follow: Daniel Vellojin
You've heard of everyone else, I'm guessing. De La Cruz is, at this point, appointment baseball. Hendrick and Hinds are former 1st rounders. Bonnin and Boyle have helium on the pitching staff, and Jose Torres tore up the league in his first taste of professional baseball. So give me the catcher who's shown a penchant for getting on base and dominated the last two months of the 2021 minor league season to the tune of a 900 OPS and a .430 OBP. Kid's also walked more than he's K'ed in his career so far.

Has the Most to Prove: Austin Hendrick
Hendrick struggled to get on track last season. He K'ed an obscenely high number of times. When he made contract, Hendrick displayed a power bat-- the balls he hit stayed hit. But he didn't hit enough of them. He's a first round talent and needs to show at least an average hit tool while dropping his K rate to the mid 20's at least. This is the type of lineup wherein he may be tempted to swing for the fences just to keep up with everyone else. I'm hoping, he instead stays within himself and takes advantage of the many scoring opportunities that will be laid in front of him.

Keep an Eye on: Evan Kravetz
The easy answer here is 100+ mph fastball thrower Joe Boyle, but I'm focusing instead on former Rice Owl Evan Kravetz. Kravetz is older than your typical High A starter. He's struggled with injuries and lost a season to the pandemic too. When he's on the mound, though, he's been outstanding. He'll be a fast mover, almost assuredly, but for now, he needs innings, and Dayton should have them for him.

[krazzy]

Vellojin is my favorite catching prospect in the Reds system. I expect them to go ahead and move Hinds off 3B and put De La Cruz there. Hinds to 1B and RF. You got to love the Reds pitching depth.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Vellojin is my favorite catching prospect in the Reds system. I expect them to go ahead and move Hinds off 3B and put De La Cruz there. Hinds to 1B and RF. You got to love the Reds pitching depth.

Yeah, nice call there. I think Hinds is athletic and fast enough to be a fine RF, actually. He'd certainly have more value there than at 1B, where he'd have to absolutely rake. I do think De La Cruz will move around the diamond a lot this year. He's at 2B currently as a placeholder, honestly. I could see him play there mostly, SS, 3B, and even CF. (Depending on Allen's development, that may be the position he could prove best at. His speed and arm would play really well where he can show them off.)

Too, I suspect there's little chance Hinds moves this season, as there are a couple of interesting prospects at 1B on the same team. Ruben Ibarra and Alex McGarry both raked in lower levels and should be given every chance to see if they're real. (I'm particularly intrigued by Ibarra's size. Dude is a mountain.) McGarry will play some 1B, some corner OF, and DH some. Ibarra is pretty much stuck at 1B and DH.

I also like the Reds' pitching depth. The starting quintet possible this season in Dayton could all be TOR candidates. There's not a low ceiling among them. Not all of them will work out, of course, but I could see each of them as likely quality late-inning relief options or BOR starters. Farr and Bonnin, in particular, have some stuff I'm enamored-- good enough, IMO, to be Tyler Mahle MOR starter types as they develop.

I also really like Vellojin. Salcedo is my favorite Red catching prospect, but Vellojin is right there. Don't sleep on Jackson Miller, who the Reds apparently really liked in Instructs/ Complex ball after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2020. He got hurt early, but was on his way to being the starter. I love Vellojin's bat control and patience. He reminds me a bit of Ryan Hanigan offensively (but perhaps with better tools).

[krazzy]

I’m not familiar with Salcedo and can’t seem to find anyon him except for his stats this year in limited games. Care to give a scouting report? From what I’ve read other places, it seems the Reds may be down on Miller. I hope you are right

[Bourgeois Zee]

From Doug Gray:

Quick Scouting Report on Andruw Salcedo
A switch-hitting catcher, Andruw Salcedo has a chance to be a strong defensive catcher down the line. He’s got a potentially plus arm that would play well behind the plate and he shows strong leadership qualities. He trained with former Major Leaguer (and Cincinnati Reds) Orlando Cabrera.

According to BA, he was one of Colombia's top prospects when he signed for $300,000. (He was trained by Orlando Cabrera, fwiw.)

[Bourgeois Zee]

C Daniel Vellojin/ Michael Trautwein
1B Ruben Ibarra/ Alex McGarry
2B Elly De La Cruz
3B Rece Hinds
SS Jose Torres
LF Blake Dunn/ Jack Rogers
CF Justice Thompson
RF Austin Hendrick

SP1 Thomas Farr
SP2 Evan Kravetz
SP3 Bryce Bonnin
SP4 Miguel Medrano
SP5 Joe Boyle

This is the third in a series revising the likely minor league rosters based on trades, releases, et al. Lots of changes for Dayton that might, ironically, help them compete for the Advanced A pennant.

C Daniel Vellojin/ Mat Nelson
1B Alex McGarry
2B Tyler Callihan
3B Elly De La Cruz
SS Jose Torres
LF Allan Cerda
CF Michael Siani
RF Rece Hinds
DH Juan Martinez

SP1 Thomas Farr
SP2 Evan Kravetz
SP3 Bryce Bonnin
SP4 Carson Spiers
SP5 James Marinan

Comment: This team is loaded. There are several returnees who should hit well and help show the prospects (of which there are quite a few) how to play the game the right way. Michael Siani is probably the weakest link offensively, and he's a legitimate prospect. (Jacob Hurtubise is also available, fwiw.) McGarry, Cerda (who really does belong in AA), Siani, and Martinez are all repeaters. Hinds, De La Cruz, Torres, both catchers, and Callihan are all legitimate top prospects. This is a fun team offensively who should hit the ball hard and often.

The pitching staff has a bunch of upside and adequacy. Carson Spiers is playing down a level-- he's ready for a bigger challenge, but the logjam ahead of him would mean he slots in here. Kravetz, Bonnin, and Farr are all really interesting arms with some helium, so each should have a spot for them. The fifth starter, such as it is, is James Marinan. He pitched lights out after a promotion late last season. No way he gets moved back down. There are several other candidates who also deserve spots here. The Reds could field two A+ starting rotations with the depth they have. Some of those guys (Abbott? Medrano? Boyle?) might move to the pen early. Or more likely, they go to low A until injuries hit.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Dayton releases their roster:

The Starters
Andrew Abbott
Joe Boyle
Thomas Farr
Evan Kravetz
James Marinan
James Proctor

Comment: These six started last season. Pretty much the entire staff has interesting peripherals. Some struggles with health (Boyle, Kravetz, Marinan) and some short stints (Proctor) may mean a six-man starting staff. Really like Farr here. He could blossom. Interesting that Chase Petty isn't being moved aggressively. Also interesting that Bryce Bonnin, Miguel Medrano, recent acquisition Connor Phillips, and Christian Roa apparently made the AA rotation-- or are being held in reserve due to injury. This is a relatively veteran staff but it doesn't have many professional innings on its arms.

Relief
Frainger Aranguren
Donovan Benoit
Manuel Cachutt
Myles Gayman
Jake Gilbert
Jake Gozzo
Nick Hanson
Carson Rudd
Jake Stevenson
Spencer Stockton
Comment: Nick Hanson might be something. Myles Gayman has some very interesting peripherals-- miniscule BB/9 and super high K rates, but those were in Rookie League. Big-time promotion here. All the better 2021 relief arms are now in AA or AAA. Which might mean depth at a discount.

Offense
Catchers
Mat Nelson
Garrett Wolforth
Comment: Nelson should mash. So should Wolforth. Wither Daniel Vellojin? Injured for now. This means AA is probably Eric Yang and... James Free?

Infielders
Elly De La Cruz
Juan Martinez
Alex McGarry
Nick Quintana
Jose Torres
Jonathan Willems
Comments: Two SS will headline, with De La Cruz and Torres both given opportunities. Look for Torres to slide to 2B often, while De La Cruz moves to 3B, I guess? Martinez has played both corners, so he's probably switching back and forth a bit. He deserves better than repeating High A-- he hit pretty well last season (.253/ .327/ .413/ .739). This is his third season in Dayton. Quintana is the Barnhart acquiree (he of the Mendoza line production so far in his professional career). McGarry can play both 1B and corner OF-- he'll get a bunch of PAs all around, I suspect. (And may well mash in the middle of a really good lineup. Especially because he's one of the few LH hitters on the squad.) No Callihan or Ibarra (who both are probably ticketed to Daytona to start the season). No Debby Santana either. Robbie Tenerowicz and Ivan Johnson probably ticketed for AA.

Outfielders
Allan Cerda
Quin Cotton
Ashton Creal
Rece Hinds
Jack Rogers
Comments: Most surprising grouping, IMO. Hinds, sure. Makes sense. Cerda, Rogers, and Cotton repeat the level (kind of)-- Cerda in particular should mash and is slumming it a bit. Rogers put up big numbers in college, but his high K rate is concerning. Creal gets pushed aggressively after getting stuck in Rookie League last year. Hinds is the real prospect here, though Cerda could push him. McGarry probably rates some OF time too. Interesting that Hendrick is not here. Guess a 40% K rate is too high? Hurtubise and Siani would seem to be AA-bound. Good for them.

Likely Batting Order:
Torres SS/2B
De La Cruz SS/3B
Hinds RF
Cerda CF
McGarry 1B/DH/LF
Nelson/ Wolforth C
Cotton/ Rogers OF
Martinez 1B/3B/DH
Quintana 3B

Solid lineup there, but it's pretty imbalanced. Lots of RH-- that's why McGarry gets sandwiched in the middle there.

[Ron Madden]

Doug Gray
@dougdirt24

Austin Hendrick is being promoted to High-A Dayton

[JCM11]

Could mean that Cerda is getting bumped to AA, and I could see Gilliam being moved up to the Bats. Hendrick and Hinds on the same team will definitely keep fans in Dayton cool this summer with all their whiffs. Hendrick is getting close to make or break territory as a prospect.

[Reds Freak]

Could mean that Cerda is getting bumped to AA, and I could see Gilliam being moved up to the Bats. Hendrick and Hinds on the same team will definitely keep fans in Dayton cool this summer with all their whiffs. Hendrick is getting close to make or break territory as a prospect.

Daytona, Dayton, and Chattanooga are all third in their respective leagues in strikeouts, so whiffing must be contagious in the Reds farm system. Interestingly, the Bats have the third fewest strikeouts in the 20-team International League and they are by far the worst team in terms of Ws and Ls.

[Rdirtypirates]

Could mean that Cerda is getting bumped to AA, and I could see Gilliam being moved up to the Bats. Hendrick and Hinds on the same team will definitely keep fans in Dayton cool this summer with all their whiffs. Hendrick is getting close to make or break territory as a prospect.

Hendrick is 20yrs old with 300 minor league abs after not playing in a yr and a half because of covid. You really think it is make or break time? Really? Hitting is always the last tool to develop. He had a .380obp last year. It is about 4years away from make or break time.

[icehole3]

I was surprised how good an athlete Hendrick was. Showed good speed and agility. Nick Senzel light.

[JCM11]

Hendrick is 20yrs old with 300 minor league abs after not playing in a yr and a half because of covid. You really think it is make or break time? Really? Hitting is always the last tool to develop. He had a .380obp last year. It is about 4years away from make or break time.

He turns 21 in a few weeks. Hendrick has 336 AB's in low A ball and has 158 SO. I would imagine that the percentage of players who fanned in half their low A ab's and went on to have MLB careers isn't very high. At some point you have to prove you can hit a baseball to be considered a real prospect. Hopefully things will get turned around in Dayton for him.

[Ron Madden]

Cincinnati Reds
@Reds

The Reds today promoted 2020 first-round pick OF Austin Hendrick from Class-A Daytona to High-A Dayton. @MLBPipelin ranks Hendrick as the club's No. 10 prospect.