Lockout Baseball: 2022 Louisville Bats Roster?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Last one, I promise.

Tell me where I messed up.

Top-15 prospects in italics.

Here's Louisville, a franchise that desperately needs a good team. Not sure if this one is it, or not...

C Chris Okey/ Chuckie Robinson
1B Jake Bauers/ Aramis Garcia
2B Brian Rey
3B Cristian Santana/ Allen Cordoba
SS Ivan Johnson/ Alfredo Rodriguez
LF Trey Amburgey
CF TJ Hopkins
RF Lorenzo Cedrola/ Drew Mount

SP1 Hunter Greene
SP2 Riley O’Brien
SP3 Nick Lodolo
SP4 Graham Ashcraft
SP5 Ben Lively

What's to Like: Let's start with the pitching staff. Neither Greene nor Lodolo are officially on the 40-man roster, so both could pitch in AAA. They're top 50 prospects and might be the best minor league pairing in AAA. O'Brien is solid (and has upside), Ashcraft was dominant for stretches last season and has peripherals that are mouth-watering, and Lively is slumming it for sure. Add in Brandon Bailey as a sixth starter who's better than just about anybody the Bats have thrown out there for years. Yes, the pitching staff looks positively dominating. Three top-five Red prospects who could, among them, average 10+ K/9 with less than 7 H/9.

Under the Radar Guy to Follow: Brian Rey
Rey is an interesting guy. He plays both CF and 2B. I'm guessing, until the 40-man guys come back, he's the starting 2B. When they return, he might end up the starting CF. Or he could just play a bunch of both. Last year, he flew through three levels and ended up with a respectful .289/ .368/ .425/ .793 for the year. It's the way he did that that's interesting. He got plunked-- a lot. And he didn't walk. In the Puerto Rican Winter League, he tore it up-- until he got hit in the face. His scouting report indicated he had some burgeoning power in his swing, but he needs a bit more than the 10-HR pace to get noticed. Still, a nice guy to have, perhaps as a bench bat or utiiity guy.

Has the Most to Prove: Graham Ashcraft
You could go so many ways here. TJ Hopkins and Drew Mount need to prove they're real prospects. Ivan Johnson needs to prove he can defend at SS-- and cut his Ks-- to prove he's a legitimate major league second-division starter at SS. Santana, AlfRod, Amburgey, Cordoda, and Bauers need to show out to prove they matter enough to get 40-man roster spots and a shot at the show. Greene and Lodolo needs to prove they're healthy. But Ashcraft feels right in this spot. He burst onto the scene with nearly a month wherein he was untouched in A+ and AA. He pitched well after that, but wasn't dominant. Unless you look at his peripherals. He has elite ground ball and K tendencies. That's super rare and most of the guys who do that are TOR SP. If he can string together another season with those peripherals, I suspect Ashcraft becomes at least a MOR SP in the big leagues. If not, I still think he has the floor to be a solid closing option. That he's the third option in the AAA rotation shows just how far the Reds have come in developing pitching.

Keep an Eye on: Hunter Greene
I mean, of course, right? Can he locate his pitches on the corners? Can he take a hitter up the ladder? Can he bury that slider? Most importantly, can he stay healthy and show more of the AA dominator from last season? He's a rare prospect that can change an entire franchise's trajectory. If he's for real, the Reds have a front four as good as anyone in the game-- and it's cheap too.

[krazzy]

Greene is on the 40 man roster. Do you think Kolozsvary makes the Reds out of spring training? If not, he will be the starting catcher in Louisville. I doubt he breaks camp with the Reds. I wouldn’t be surprised when if Cedrola makes the Reds out of camp. Him and Senzel are really the only RH hitting options. With Barrero and McLean at SS andIndia at 2B, I think they will move Ivan Johnson around the Diamond. 2nd, SS and 3B.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Greene is on the 40 man roster. Do you think Kolozsvary makes the Reds out of spring training? If not, he will be the starting catcher in Louisville. I doubt he breaks camp with the Reds. I wouldn’t be surprised when if Cedrola makes the Reds out of camp. Him and Senzel are really the only RH hitting options. With Barrero and McLean at SS andIndia at 2B, I think they will move Ivan Johnson around the Diamond. 2nd, SS and 3B.

Apologies if Greene is indeed on the roster. According to MLB, he's not. If he's not available, Brandon Bailey would likely be the fith starter in Louisville. That'll help him show health after TJ surgery. (Assuming he's ready.) It would also mean the Bats would have less star power (and less of a chance, IMO, to compete for a championship).

I suspect Knapp will be the back-up as of now, with Kolozsvary in AAA. The reason Kolo's not on this particular roster is that he's rostered on the 40-man and therefore ineligible. Having him in AAA lines up nicely, IMO, with Red catcher development. Stephenson in the majors, Kolozsvary in AAA, Nelson (and Yang) in AA, Vellojin in A+, Salcedo (and Astudillo) in low A, and Miller in Complex Ball would mean all teams have a catcher worth keeping an eye on. At the major league level, were I the GM, I'd make Farmer the backup catcher (and backup SS) and make the bench stronger.

If Cedrola breaks camp with the Reds, that means Shogo, Senzel, TJ Friedl, and Naquin have either all been traded, have flopped, are injured, or have other roles. I don't think that's likely at the beginning of the season. (I could definitely see an argument in June, if Cedrola's hitting like he did in AA last year.)

I totally agree with Ivan Johnson. Were I Johnson, I'd ask to play CF. That would seem to be the easiest way to get some playing time. I'd also look at 2B, 3B, and the corner OF spots to really cement myself as a multi-pronged help. I do think we'll see Johnson moved around the diamond, as Louisville has multiple options at SS if they want to see Johnson elsewhere. He'll have to continue to show the power he showed last season and improve his K rate substantially to earn a call-up, however. With Lopez, Schrock, Farmer, and Moustakas, the Reds have lots of backup options in the spots where Johnson might be attractive. He'll need to show something those other guys don't have. I suspect the combination of SS and CF capability (plus power and league minimum contract) is it.

[krazzy]

O’Brian is also on the 40 man roster. I was figuring Tenerowicz at 3B. Major league outfield of Winker, Naquin, Senzel for sure. Probably Shogo and Friedl. I would like to see Cedrola instead of Shogo but doubt they eat the contract.

[Bourgeois Zee]

With MLB Spring Training fully underway, we can now add back the guys who are part of the 40-man roster, who got released, fill in with prospects, and get a better, clearer idea of who might start the season in AAA.

C Mark Kolozsvary
1B Jake Bauers
2B Alejo Lopez
3B Cristian Santana
SS Juniel Querecuto
OF Ronnie Dawson
OF TJ Friedl
OF Trey Amburgey
DH Max Schrock

SP1 Hunter Greene
SP 2 Nick Lodolo
SP 3 Brandon Williamson
SP 4 Graham Ashcraft
SP 5 Riley O'Brien

Comment: IMO, Dunn breaks camp as the fifth starter (as he has 25 major league starts under his belt with a 3.94 ERA), with Gutierrez as the fourth starter. That leaves all four top 10 Red prospects in the AAA rotation. That's probably the best minor league rotation in baseball and a real reason why the Reds might be set up for some success later this decade. Any of the five could be a relief option with the parent club, but I'm guessing Reiver Sanmartin becomes the second lefty in the pen (as the long man/ 13th pitcher). Any of the first four could be the ace, but Greene is probably first among equals. In my previous iteration, I had Ben Lively as the fifth starter, but I just don't think the Reds can justify that-- unless O'Brien transitions to relief full-time. (Which would make some sense. That's where he profiles at the major league level.) Regardless, this is a rotation that is deep, good, and young.

Offensively, I'm guessing Lopez, Schrock and Friedl are victims of roster games, as I'm fairly certain Krall doesn't have the intelligence to move chaff from the major league roster and will instead go with Colin Moran, Aristides Aquino, and SS only Kyle Farmer. (Sigh.) Either way, all three are slumming it a bit in Louisville and are solid depth pieces at the least. Unfortunately, two of them are kind of superfluous. A smart GM would deal from that strength to bolster a weakness; then again, Krall works for Cincinnati ownership... Nuff said. Bauers should hit well at 1B-- he has a long history of doing just that. Kolozsvary has some power and an excellent defensive reputation. Querecuto was an under-the-radar move that should see solid production continue from AAA SS-- I like that bat in this lineup. The OF is ordinary at best-- journeymen with no real carrying skills. That might be good enough to shine in AAA, but it leaves a lot to be desired from a development philosophy.

[M2]

That would have to be the most lit rotation in the minors if they assemble all of Greene, Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft.

[mth123]

That would have to be the most lit rotation in the minors if they assemble all of Greene, Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft.

More and more, I think Ashcraft should be moved to the pen and compete for a big-league spot right now. A 40 change-up won't play and two pitch pitchers usually can't go through a line-up successfully multiple times. The bullpen has glaring needs and I think its iffy that Ashcraft would ever be any better than Sal Romano in a rotation. That's who he reminds me of. 60 Fastball, OK breaking ball, No change-up, but lots of stamina. I think Ashcraft's breaking ball is better than Sal's and that may make him a really good late inning reliever with his sinking fastball.

I generally like to leave guys starting, but in this case, I think the bullpen and Ashcraft were made for each other.

[Bourgeois Zee]

That would have to be the most lit rotation in the minors if they assemble all of Greene, Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft.

I think it's likely.

What's interesting is playing that out across seasons.

Greene in 2022, with Ashcraft, Lodolo, and Williamson getting cups of coffee this season for a 2023 arrival date. That means the Reds can/ will jettison Castillo/ Mahle, et al., because they're cheap penurious buttheads. Roa and Richardson should be ready by April 2024. Bonnin, Farr, and Abbott in 2025.

That doesn't include Boyle, Solomon, Proctor, Spiers, or Salazar, all of whom have either helium or minor league peripherals that intrigue.

Nor does it include Antone (who should be back, hopefully effective, and still cheap by 2023, Sanmartin, O'Brien (still like him as a middle relief arm), Gutierrez (should be a very good reliever), Santillan, and Warren. All of them have years of control in front of them.

[krazzy]

I would keep Ashcraft as a starter until he proves that he can’t be. What about Tenerowicz at 3B? What about Brian Rey? Chattanooga or Louisville? I think I agree with you about OBrian, I don’t see him being a starter long term with the competition he has. Should go ahead and move him to the pen.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I would keep Ashcraft as a starter until he proves that he can’t be. What about Tenerowicz at 3B? What about Brian Rey? Chattanooga or Louisville? I think I agree with you about OBrian, I don’t see him being a starter long term with the competition he has. Should go ahead and move him to the pen.

I totally agree with you, krazzy. If Ashcraft can toss a 3.00 ERA with the peripherals he had last year, he's a strong #2. Why move him to the pen yet? He can learn far more as a starter this year, and, if he proves he's for real, what a weapon to have as a third, fourth, or fifth starter!

This is part of the reasoning for moving O'Brien now. He's got four guys-- Greene, Lodolo, Williamson, and Ashcraft-- ahead of him in the AAA pecking order and three-- Santillan, Gutierrez, and Sanmartin-- as major leaguers. He's stuck last in line. If he wants to have a viable major league career, best, IMO, to begin as a reliever. He's unlikely to get a chance at a starter spot.

Tenerowicz had a monster second half and may end up in Louisville in lieu of Santana (or with Santana). But the Reds went out and signed that guy for a reason. I'm guessing Bird is a backup in AAA or AA. (I'd start him, but I'm guessing this is what Krall and company will do.)

[M2]

I would keep Ashcraft as a starter until he proves that he can’t be. What about Tenerowicz at 3B? What about Brian Rey? Chattanooga or Louisville? I think I agree with you about OBrian, I don’t see him being a starter long term with the competition he has. Should go ahead and move him to the pen.

I fine with Ashcraft getting fast-tracked to the bigs in the pen. Nothing wrong with a transition season as a reliever/spot starter.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I fine with Ashcraft getting fast-tracked to the bigs in the pen. Nothing wrong with a transition season as a reliever/spot starter.

If they're going to move him to the rotation next season, perhaps it would work.

The issue is that the Reds rarely seem to do that. Chapman was a one-year relief guy who's still doing a closer's job a decade and a half later. Antone got stuck as a fireman. Santillan seems similarly stuck.

Putting Ashcraft there seems a waste of resources.

If that's the new plan, I'm here for it, but I think it should start with Greene.

[M2]

If that's the new plan, I'm here for it, but I think it should start with Greene.

FWIW, I'd like to see teams break in tandems of young guys as swing men. Take every other start, work in the pen in between. Strikes me as a good way to manage load, fatigue and exposure.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Bats released their roster. Doug Gray has it here.

Some interesting notes:

- No Brandon Williamson. I guess he starts in AA?

- No Mark Kolozsvary either. Again, AA, I guess?

- Some interesting depth in Friedl and Alejo Lopez. Maybe Jake Bauers, JT Riddle, Ronnie Dawson, and Trey Amburgey can play in a break glass in case of emergency kind of way.

- Graham Ashcraft is the ace of the staff. He'll have to be nearly perfect all season. Good training for playing in Cincinnati.

[Hamilton95]

Not sure if anyone has already posted this but P Lyon Richardson had Tommy John surgery.

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/where-...ng-2022-season