Will Votto be traded?

[RedsManRick]

Votto projects at something like a 2 WAR deficit relative to his guaranteed money. His substantial subjective value to the Reds, the upside potential given what he showed last year after fundamentally changing his approach, and the likely inability (or unwillingness) to replace his production (especially in light of our precarious relation to being competitive) makes it make very unlikely and, IMHO, unwise for the Reds to trade him. I don't think you can understate the damage to the brand that would happen -- especially in light of the Bengals finally getting off the playoff schneid.

The upside of trading him is basically non-existent. There's no scenario in which you're getting real long-term surplus value coming back. There's basically no scenario in which it makes the team more competitive in the short run. And it would infuriate a fan base that already has a shaky opinion of ownership.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Votto projects at something like a 2 WAR deficit relative to his guaranteed money.

Is that moving forward only, or does that add all WAR from the signing of his contract to now and ignore future production?

[Falls City Beer]

I agree the organization would love to shed his salary number but I don't think they want to shed Joey Votto. Castellini has historically been acutely aware of marketability and is a bit nostalgic. He has been late in purging long tenured and popular players. I think they would use Mahle to shed Moose well before they would even consider it for Votto.

I think you’re being emotional about Bob Castellini/the ownership group. They don’t care about any of that fundamentally. They want to field the cheapest team possible that still keeps the turnstiles moving. If that’s with Votto, then so be it. If it’s not, Votto will go. But it’s moot. He’s got a no-trade.

[Falls City Beer]

Votto projects at something like a 2 WAR deficit relative to his guaranteed money. His substantial subjective value to the Reds, the upside potential given what he showed last year after fundamentally changing his approach, and the likely inability (or unwillingness) to replace his production (especially in light of our precarious relation to being competitive) makes it make very unlikely and, IMHO, unwise for the Reds to trade him. I don't think you can understate the damage to the brand that would happen -- especially in light of the Bengals finally getting off the playoff schneid.

The upside of trading him is basically non-existent. There's no scenario in which you're getting real long-term surplus value coming back. There's basically no scenario in which it makes the team more competitive in the short run. And it would infuriate a fan base that already has a shaky opinion of ownership.

Shaky opinion? I’d say that’s being generous.

[CaiGuy]

I think you’re being emotional about Bob Castellini/the ownership group. They don’t care about any of that fundamentally. They want to field the cheapest team possible that still keeps the turnstiles moving. If that’s with Votto, then so be it. If it’s not, Votto will go. But it’s moot. He’s got a no-trade.

If they want to field the cheapest team possible, why don't they field the cheapest team possible?

[westofyou]

If they want to field the cheapest team possible, why don't they field the cheapest team possible?

Yep, they aren't exactly pulling a Pirates approach year in and year out.

[Falls City Beer]

If they want to field the cheapest team possible, why don't they field the cheapest team possible?

They want to keep the turnstiles moving, selling products, etc. But notice how little they invest in the architecture of winning—drafting, development, international scouting, etc.

Further, big franchises have to love having outfits like the Reds, Pirates, and Orioles around. Pads their records with fewer dollars expended in having to compete for talent. The status quo works entirely too well for all involved. Except small market fans. And let’s face it, we don’t matter.

[CaiGuy]

They want to keep the turnstiles moving, selling products, etc. But notice how little they invest in the architecture of winning—drafting, development, international scouting, etc.

Further, big franchises have to love having outfits like the Reds, Pirates, and Orioles around. Pads their records with fewer dollars expended in having to compete for talent. The status quo works entirely too well for all involved. Except small market fans. And let’s face it, we don’t matter.

Eh, that's not really true, though. They spend as much as anybody on drafting and international amatures. I don't know about development spending, but there in is a lot of talk about their investment in tech and analytics. They even dabble on the FA market.

I do wonder if they skimp on some areas to pay for a relatively oversized major league payroll vs. their peers.

Anyways, this isn't an excuse for them. I think their real problem is even more challenging then poverty or plain cheapness... incompetence. They want to win, they have and do spend money. They just don't have the ability as an organization to turn that into consistent winning.

But to act like they are dying to get rid of salary commitments that they themselves added in recent years is silly. They aren't glad Castellanos walked. And they aren't giving up a Malhe or Castillo to "shed" Votto, their franchise player. Nor would they want to.

And they would net profit way more by staying away from contracts like Castellanos, Votto, Moustakas, Shogo, ect, and being more like the Pirates while ignoring attendance.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They want to keep the turnstiles moving, selling products, etc. But notice how little they invest in the architecture of winning—drafting, development, international scouting, etc.

This may have been a more prescient point before Cincinnati shelled out enough cash for sign the #3 rated international free agent in the game this year. Or signing/ spending among the most money in baseball on the draft.

[DayGameRedLegs]

I don't think Votto will be traded. I think it's a quaint but enjoyable comfort to see a star player play his whole career for one team.

Besides, he's making so much money in his twilight years, who else would want to pay that amount without us splitting the cost?

[Falls City Beer]

This may have been a more prescient point before Cincinnati shelled out enough cash for sign the #3 rated international free agent in the game this year. Or signing/ spending among the most money in baseball on the draft.

Maybe that will finally pay dividends in a few years.

[Falls City Beer]

Eh, that's not really true, though. They spend as much as anybody on drafting and international amatures. I don't know about development spending, but there in is a lot of talk about their investment in tech and analytics. They even dabble on the FA market.

I do wonder if they skimp on some areas to pay for a relatively oversized major league payroll vs. their peers.

Anyways, this isn't an excuse for them. I think their real problem is even more challenging then poverty or plain cheapness... incompetence. They want to win, they have and do spend money. They just don't have the ability as an organization to turn that into consistent winning.

But to act like they are dying to get rid of salary commitments that they themselves added in recent years is silly. They aren't glad Castellanos walked. And they aren't giving up a Malhe or Castillo to "shed" Votto, their franchise player. Nor would they want to.

And they would net profit way more by staying away from contracts like Castellanos, Votto, Moustakas, Shogo, ect, and being more like the Pirates while ignoring attendance.

They’ve spent more in the past couple seasons sure. But it’s pretty clear they’re retrenching again. It was a really small competitive window. And yes, they’re incompetent too. It’s a dreadful mixture.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Maybe that will finally pay dividends in a few years.

I mean, isn't that what player development is like for all teams?

Barrero and Gutierrez were big bonus babies on the international market. They're going to be big parts of the 2022 season. Hunter Greene is a top prospect (with one of the most expensive signing bonuses in baseball history). He's almost a shoo-in for time on the Queen City mound in 2022. Lodolo is a top prospect too, who's knocking on the door. And they spent relatively big cash on Boddy and Johnson to actually, y'know, develop that talent. Heck, Jonathan India wasn't cheap, but he's the reigning ROY. Sure, they've cheaped out in a number of ways, and Red ownership only seems to work in fits and starts. But the past few years, they've undenably spent big money on player development.

[Falls City Beer]

I mean, isn't that what player development is like for all teams?

Barrero and Gutierrez were big bonus babies on the international market. They're going to be big parts of the 2022 season. Hunter Greene is a top prospect (with one of the most expensive signing bonuses in baseball history). He's almost a shoo-in for time on the Queen City mound in 2022. Lodolo is a top prospect too, who's knocking on the door. And they spent relatively big cash on Boddy and Johnson to actually, y'know, develop that talent. Heck, Jonathan India wasn't cheap, but he's the reigning ROY. Sure, they've cheaped out in a number of ways, and Red ownership only seems to work in fits and starts. But the past few years, they've undenably spent big money on player development.

Didn’t Boddy tell them to kick rocks though?

[RedTeamGo!]

Didn’t Boddy tell them to kick rocks though?

No, other way around. They told Boddy to kick rocks and he still hasn’t latched on to another team. Which speaks volumes.