2022 Prospect List Season (Who's in the Top 100? These Guys)

[Tom Servo]

Yeah I don’t get the Jay Allen stuff at all beyond the point of his swing resembling one that could falter in the higher levels. He looks like a stud of a prospect.

They did get me excited about Yerlin Confidan tho so there’s that

[RedTeamGo!]

McLain has yet to do anything in pro ball but I’ll give him a few moths before lowering expectations.

Fangraphs has been a bit down on the system for a while now, meanwhile the Reds have recently produced some guys who’ve exceeded their evaluations. Hopefully Greene and Lodolo can do the same.

Yep, I honestly immediately stopped taking FG seriously, with regard to the Reds farm, the offseason before 2020.

[RedTeamGo!]

The FV are crazy for many of the prospects on the page. So crazy as to be unusable. Present Value is nearly as bad.

I mean, Nick Lodolo has a 45/50 fastball scouting grade. It sits 92-95 and tops out at 97. It's praised as being botable for its sinking action and "incredible" horizontal run. Now, a LHSP who sits 92-95 already has a fastball that's above average. Add in its movements, and you'd think that grade should be higher. Well, you're right. It should. Longenhagen has screwed up his scouting grades pretty much across the board.

Lodolo, again, is a prime example. His slider is a 70/70 plus-plus pitch right now and in the future. His changeup is below average now (which makes no sense according to the peripherals, but I digress), but profiles to be slightly better than league average. His command should allow his stuff to play up, as it's 55/60. Despite grades wherein no pitch is below 55 FV, his value sits at... 50.

The writeups are glowing of nearly every prospect so as to protect the writers, IMO. Really tough grades, but glowing writeups mean you can have your cake and eat it too.

Just a lot less than I expected.

They're far, far lower than industry expectations on Jay Allen (which is truly asinine, when you read his report), Rece Hinds, Graham Ashcraft (17th?! WTF?!), Christian Roa (three above average to plus pitches and a 40+ grade makes no sense in any scouting world), and Jose Torres. Production and peripherals don't seem to count for anything. At all. Tools aren't graded evenly across prospects on the same teams, let alone the same within a farm system or all of baseball. (This was supposed to be a strength of having a small team analyze prospects.)

The second I saw Allen below Hendrick on the list I immediately closed the browser. Not kidding.

[RED VAN HOT]

IMO, very good write-ups. I learned something about the lesser known prospects. References to projectable frames provided some insight into the Reds' drafting/signing strategy. Lots of high upside potential within the numbers game.

[kaldaniels]

Williamson just got bumped up to #100 on MLB Pipeline with Joey Bart’s graduation.

So we got that goin’ for us.

[mth123]

I've been looking through the list. Other than Cerda being higher than I expected and maybe a little lower on McLain than I expected, I don't think it's that far off of how I'd rank them. I'd have probably swapped spot between Hinds and Callihan, but I can see the reasoning they have.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I've been looking through the list. Other than Cerda being higher than I expected and maybe a little lower on McLain than I expected, I don't think it's that far off of how I'd rank them. I'd have probably swapped spot between Hinds and Callihan, but I can see the reasoning they have.

I look forward to telling you how wrong you are in the future.

All kidding aside, I like Jay Allen as much as any prospect currently in the minor leagues.

That he ranks 12th on this list is just breath-taking. Worse, the "analysis" they've chosen to go with on he in particular-- a questionable bat-to-ball foundation-- flies in the face of his current swing and his (limited) production while a professional. 12 Ks last year in 75 PAs isn't a bat-to-ball issue, nor is a .328 BA. Regardless, according to the write-up, he's already worked on his long HS swing and found success with it, yet they grade the former swing rather than his current one. Too, in an earlier write-up (that of Allan Cerda, they all but dismiss a K rate nearly double that of Allen's in favor of his burgeoning power.

It makes absolutely no sense. You can't have it both ways, yet that's just what they're attempting to do.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Fangraphs revised their pre-season lists a bit, ranking the players currently in the minors again.

It is remarkable how badly they did projecting the Reds' players.

EDLC is now the 6th-rated prospect. Marte is 14th.

There's not another Red in the top 100. (That's asinine, quite honestly.)

Beyond that, Brandon Williamson is #102. Allan Cerda is still their 4th ranked Red. (Remember, this is the group who ranked Graham Ashcraft the 17th-best Red prospect in 2021-- after a dominant AA season.) Cam Collier is ranked just the spot below Cerda.

It is at that point that I threw my laptop across the room because, really, what's the use?

[RedTeamGo!]

Fangraphs revised their pre-season lists a bit, ranking the players currently in the minors again.

It is remarkable how badly they did projecting the Reds' players.

EDLC is now the 6th-rated prospect. Marte is 14th.

There's not another Red in the top 100. (That's asinine, quite honestly.)

Beyond that, Brandon Williamson is #102. Allan Cerda is still their 4th ranked Red. (Remember, this is the group who ranked Graham Ashcraft the 17th-best Red prospect in 2021-- after a dominant AA season.) Cam Collier is ranked just the spot below Cerda.

It is at that point that I threw my laptop across the room because, really, what's the use?

FG isn’t even worth looking at anymore

[MikeS21]

Any thoughts as to why Marte actually dropped a spot after coming over to the Reds, when it seems that he kicked it up a notch after coming over?

[mth123]

Any thoughts as to why Marte actually dropped a spot after coming over to the Reds, when it seems that he kicked it up a notch after coming over?

Marte didn't "drop." Elly de la Cruz just has better all-around tools and outranks him. MLB doesn't re-rank guys when others drop off the list or are traded, they are just slotted in where their previous rankings put them. When they finally do re-rank them, more recent information is included. Marte didn't lose any luster, Elly de la Cruz just shot past him with his big year.