2022 Prospect List Season (Who's in the Top 100? These Guys)

[Danny Serafini]

Well, this is a dishonest frame, obviously.

Ashcraft wasn't even in Chattanooga for half the year-- and his ERA while in AA was more than acceptable. (And let's not discuss ERA as the end-all, be-all of development.)

And yeah, in a small sample, Sims absolutely could have horrid numbers in AA.

This isn't dishonest in the least. First off, how is 4.70 more than acceptable? It's not even good. ERA may not be everything, but it still matters. So does that 1.38 WHIP. And that's why he's not on the top 100 lists. The back half of his time in AA cast some doubt on the front half. He needs to prove he's more of the June/July pitcher in order to get that recognition.

As for Sims, in a short sample size of 2 innings, sure he could put up bad numbers. In the same sample size as large as Ashcraft's last eight games, I'm very confident in saying no, he's not giving up that many runs and hits for that long.

There is literally no one expecting him to be in the major league right now.

No one.

Go check the main board, there have been people putting him in the mix for the 5th starter spot. Not everyone of course, but it's not "literally no one" either.

Not to mention the fact that you yourself just said he's Lucas Sims. You're telling me he's ready to pitch in the Major Leagues right now.

[Bourgeois Zee]

This isn't dishonest in the least.

He was only in AA for half the season. His ERA in AA was not 4.70. You're parsing the numbers dishonestly. In AA, over half a season, Graham Ashcraft had a 3.36 ERA. Full stop. You can parse the numbers beyond that, but you're dealing with a small sample size as is-- making it smaller doesn't help you.

[Bourgeois Zee]

This isn't dishonest in the least. First off, how is 4.70 more than acceptable? It's not even good. ERA may not be everything, but it still matters. So does that 1.38 WHIP. And that's why he's not on the top 100 lists. The back half of his time in AA cast some doubt on the front half. He needs to prove he's more of the June/July pitcher in order to get that recognition.

As for Sims, in a short sample size of 2 innings, sure he could put up bad numbers. In the same sample size as large as Ashcraft's last eight games, I'm very confident in saying no, he's not giving up that many runs and hits for that long.



Go check the main board, there have been people putting him in the mix for the 5th starter spot.

I did check the main board.

Unless I'm missing something, the only people who are talking about Ashcraft as a possible 5th starter mention him as a possibilty well into the season, were that the Reds' decision. I can find no one advocating for Ashcraft to skip over Greene, Lodolo, Sanmartin, and others in order to be the team's 5th starter.

And I am indeed telling you that, IMO, Graham Ashcraft has the stuff to be effective in short innings out of a major league bullpen. He could produce, IMO, a league average-ish ERA with solid to exceptional peripherals right now as a bullpen arm. His stuff is superior to every bullpen arm the Reds trot out there. His fastball has a history of upper 90s (99 consistently). His slider has monster RPM rates. He has elite ground ball rates. He has exceptional K rates. All of these are indicators of future success.

Now, the reason why the Reds haven't done just that is because they see his change-up and cutter as viable teritiary pitches. They see him as a MOR or TOR SP candidate. Some of those don't pan out. Some of them do. As he moves through the upper minors, he's going to be given every opportunity to prove he can find those pitches. If not, he will then rely on his plus fastball velocity and plus slider in the pen. Two plus pitches in the bullpen, btw, is really good.

[Danny Serafini]

He was only in AA for half the season. His ERA in AA was not 4.70. You're parsing the numbers dishonestly. In AA, over half a season, Graham Ashcraft had a 3.36 ERA. Full stop. You can parse the numbers beyond that, but you're dealing with a small sample size as is-- making it smaller doesn't help you.

First off, I never said he had a 4.70 ERA for the year, I said that was his ERA over his final eight (of 14, so over half his AA) starts. I will say I'm tired of you calling me dishonest when it's clear you didn't read the post correctly.

As far as sample size, it is 1/3 of his season. It's a fair amount, it wasn't impressive, and that's why you're not seeing him on top 100 lists. It looks like the league may have adjusted to him, it's his turn to adjust back.

He could produce, IMO, a league average-ish ERA with solid to exceptional peripherals right now as a bullpen arm.

We're just going to disagree on that. I'm not rolling him out there in the 7th inning of a 1 run game right now like Lucas Sims, I don't think he's ready yet. Of course it's all hypothetical, it's not like this is in the Reds plans anyway, so I guess there's not really much more to say about that.

Now, the reason why the Reds haven't done just that is because they see his change-up and cutter as viable teritiary pitches. They see him as a MOR or TOR SP candidate. Some of those don't pan out. Some of them do. As he moves through the upper minors, he's going to be given every opportunity to prove he can find those pitches. If not, he will then rely on his plus fastball velocity and plus slider in the pen. Two plus pitches in the bullpen, btw, is really good.

I think we're actually in agreement on his future. He's got the chance to be a really good starting pitcher, we're just disagreeing on how close he is and where he should be in terms of hype. You're surprised he's not getting top 100 love, I'm not because his last two months didn't go well.

[Bourgeois Zee]

First off, I never said he had a 4.70 ERA for the year,

What you wrote:

If you dropped Lucas Sims into Chattanooga today, would he spend half the year with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP?

This is what I wrote in response:

Ashcraft wasn't even in Chattanooga for half the year-- and his ERA while in AA was more than acceptable.

[Danny Serafini]

Ashcraft spent half of his time in AA (actually over half, 8 of 14 starts) pitching 4.70 ball. That was the point. Your second comment is straight up wrong, he spent almost 2/3 of the year in Chattanooga (14 of 22 starts, the other 8 in Dayton).

[Bourgeois Zee]

Ashcraft spent half of his time in AA (actually over half, 8 of 14 starts) pitching 4.70 ball. That was the point. Your second comment is straight up wrong, he spent almost 2/3 of the year in Chattanooga (14 of 22 starts, the other 8 in Dayton).

He didn't spend half the season pitching to a 4.70 ERA.

That's what you typed.

It was wrong.

I was wrong when I stated that he didn't spend half the season in Chattanooga.

Regardless, half of his season was not spent pitching to a 4.60 ERA. Framing it that way is wrong.

[Danny Serafini]

I NEVER SAID GRAHAM ASHCRAFT SPENT HALF THE YEAR PITCHING TO 4.70 ERA. Go show me where I said that, I'd love to see the quote. Quit misrepresenting what I said.

What he did do is spent over half his time in AA, the last 8 of 14 starts, pitching to a 4.70 ERA. That is basic fact.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Nevermind.

Not worth it.

[Tom Servo]

I'm high on Aschraft but I definitely get why he isn't in the Top 100 mix yet. It's hard not to be excited about how high all the analysts are on Elly De La Cruz. Wonder if they plan on starting him back in Daytona next year or bump him up to Dayton.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm high on Aschraft but I definitely get why he isn't in the Top 100 mix yet. It's hard not to be excited about how high all the analysts are on Elly De La Cruz. Wonder if they plan on starting him back in Daytona next year or bump him up to Dayton.

De La Cruz reminds me of Jose Siri-- complete with the prospect fatigue inherent in loving a kid with swing issues a long, long way away from the majors.

[klw]

Baseball Prospectus did indeed come out with their list of 101 top prospects today. They chose not to count Barrero as a prospect (which is weird). )

Per Doug, because of the way BP defines prospect Barrero was not eligible for their list.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Per Doug, because of the way BP defines prospect Barrero was not eligible for their list.

Yeah, it's weird that there's a split between BA and BP on this, not that Barrero isn't included. I should have been clearer.

If he was included, BP would rank four Reds in the top 100, three of them in the upper half. That'd be among the best systems in the league, fwiw.

That doesn't include Jay Allen, Ricardo Cabrera and others who are of the age, pedigree, and possible production level to explode onto the national scene. It also doesn't include guys like Sanmartin, Diaz, Friedl, Lopez, and Johnson who look like they're going to be solid depth but not difference-makers.

[M2]

Ashcraft spent half of his time in AA (actually over half, 8 of 14 starts) pitching 4.70 ball. That was the point. Your second comment is straight up wrong, he spent almost 2/3 of the year in Chattanooga (14 of 22 starts, the other 8 in Dayton).

Pitchers do that all the time. Even good ones. It's why you should pay attention to larger sample sizes and not get hung up on smaller ones. Every player who has ever played baseball has had in-season hot and cold streaks. Ashcraft had a good season.

Also, Lucas Sims wasn't a particularly good minor league pitcher. It was 800+ IP of building the case for why he wasn't going to make it as a SP and needed to become a reliever. Tony Santillan is on the same journey. Maybe the same happens to Ashcraft, maybe not. Pretty nice consolation prize provided you recognize the kid's value is in the pen before you trade him.

[WrongVerb]

Keith Law's top 100:

12. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Age: 22 | 6-5 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2017

Previous ranking: No. 28

Greene will hit 98-101 mph as a starter most nights, and has been up to 104 mph in games, although I don’t think that’s necessary or even advisable for him to try to do too often. Since being the second overall pick in 2017, he’s shown remarkable progress as a pitcher. In high school, he had the same incredible arm strength, but his offspeed stuff wasn’t great and he was also serving as his team’s shortstop, showing some power at the plate but below-average bat speed. He’s added a slider in pro ball, a pitch that’s already average to above-average and should end up plus given his arm speed; while he’s also improved his changeup substantially, allowing him to close his platoon split by more than half since 2018. His fastball doesn’t have great life or spin, so the continued development of those offspeed pitches is key. Greene had Tommy John surgery in 2018, then missed 2019 while rehabbing and 2020 to the pandemic, so he’d gone 33 months between regulation games when he took the mound this past May. He dominated Double A, and his home run troubles in Triple A boiled down to two disaster starts (seven home runs allowed in 6 2/3 innings), outside of which he had little trouble with the longball. His bigger issue remains allowing more good contact than he should given his stuff, but the trend line is positive as he continues to develop his arsenal. Greene was scratched from one August start with irritation in the AC joint of his throwing shoulder, returned to make five more starts, then was shut down as he reached his innings limit for the year, with 106 1/3 innings in his first year back, along with 139 strikeouts — enough to put him in the top 30 in minor league baseball. He’ll see the majors this year, and if nothing else, big league hitters will force him to use his whole repertoire and make more adjustments. His ranking here is a bet on that continued growth, on his incredible athleticism and makeup, and that he’ll end up outperforming other pitchers who’ve had better results in the minors so far.

69. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds

Age: 20 | 6-2 | 150 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right

Previous ranking: Unranked

De La Cruz is the highest-beta prospect on this list — he has a chance to be a superstar, and he has a non-trivial chance to have no major-league value at all. He has incredible tools, with 70 speed, a 70 arm, absurd bat speed, and plus power already even though he’s barely begun to fill out his 6-4 or 6-5 frame. (He’s listed everywhere at 6-2, which was his height when he signed, but unlike me, he grew after he turned 16.) His wrists are loose and quick, and the ball flies off his bat in a way you wouldn’t expect from a kid who’s still lanky and wiry. His approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired, however; there’s a lot of chase and not much pitch recognition, in part because at lower levels he knows he can put his bat on the ball even if he guesses wrong. You could see hints of this in his 50 games in Low-A Daytona, where he was one of the youngest players at the level, with 10 walks against 65 strikeouts. He has the quickness and actions for shortstop, but not the consistency, and of course he’s going to get a lot bigger from here and may need to move to another position. There are a lot more Reggie Abercrombies and Charlton Jimersons in MLB history than there are Sammy Sosas and Alfonso Sorianos, but the upside for De La Cruz is in that 6+ WAR territory, especially if he manages to stay on the dirt.

72. Matt McLain, SS, Cincinnati Reds

Age: 22 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2021

Previous ranking: Ineligible

McLain was a top-10 talent in the 2021 draft, and a first-rounder (who didn’t sign) back in 2018, but slid to the 17th pick, possibly because his spring was interrupted by a broken thumb. He had a breakout year for UCLA before the draft, then carried it right on into pro ball, where he hit .273/.387/.424 in a month with Low-A Daytona, setting him up well to try to reach Double A by the end of this year. McLain is a shortstop for now, although he’s probably no more than a 50 defender there and a contending club would probably push him to second in favor of a plus defender; the Reds even drafted one after McLain, taking Jose Torres, a gifted shortstop with a below-average hit tool, in the third round. McLain’s real standout tool is his bat, as he has great feel for the barrel, controls the zone, and shows gap power, a bit like Jonathan India (who was No. 88 on last year’s top 100) but with less future power than the reigning Rookie of the Year and more speed. He’s also likely to move quickly through the minors with his advanced hit tool, especially if the Reds decide to just move him to second base now because Jose Barrero is ahead of him. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other players ahead of him on the list, but projects as a longtime regular who might make the occasional All-Star team in his peak batting average seasons.

No Nick Lodolo.