2022 Prospect List Season (Who's in the Top 100? These Guys)

[Benihana]

MLBPipeline’s list seems reasonable to me. I think the top 9 is solid. Hendrick needs to bounce back this year.

[M2]

Also because he throws 100 and scouts like what they see. You can hate the trade and still recognize him as a talent. It’s not his fault he was traded for Gray. No need to **** on him.

Most HS flamethrowers blow up. Riley Pints and Tyler Koleks. There are very few things that impress me less than 18 and throws hard. 21 and throws hard? All in.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Most HS flamethrowers blow up. Riley Pints and Tyler Koleks. There are very few things that impress me less than 18 and throws hard. 21 and throws hard? All in.

Meh, I think recent developments have helped limit that massive attrition rate. Petty's a wildcard, as all pitching prospects are, but all things considered, I'd rather have a guy who throws hard than a guy who doesn't. What I like about Petty is his scouting report-- throws hard, throws an occasional plus often enough to think it'll be a major league weapon, and has a feel for a changeup.

It's not just the fastball.

That said, yeah, he's a long, long way away. I'd rank him below Allen for sure. In my personal top 10, he's at number 10, with Callihan and Hinds ahead of him. He's similar to Christian Roa and Bryce Bonnin-- hard-throwing guys with at least one other pitch, decent control, and some pedigree. Petty's four years younger, so he gets the edge.

My top 15:
1. Greene
Easiest gas in the game and a plus slider. He's ready to give it a go now, but could use a developing changeup. Could be an ace.
2. Lodolo
Equalled Greene in production, but not innings. That alone makes him the second pick. Increased velocity might mean he reaches a MOR ceiling. When he's on, he looks nearly impossible. To wit:

3. De La Cruz
Electric talent. Boom or bust. Will be fascinating to watch. I can't get the ED comparisons out of my skull.
4. McLain
A surer thing than most prospects. Want to see his hit tool develop. How nice would it be to have a .300+ hitter again at the top of the order? His load and swing look a lot like Nick Senzel's.

5. Williamson
He and Ashcraft are really hard to gauge. Their minor league numbers are close. Williamson gets the nod (today) because his scouting report says he has four pitches.
6. Ashcraft
Can't see how anyone separates he and Wiliamson. Upper 90s late in the game with a 60 slider is a weapon. A body made for starting makes me think TOR thoughts. Love that elite groundball tendency too.
7. Allen
Hated this pick in the draft. What do I know? Scouting report indicates he has more in the tank, but a .328/ .440/ .558 debut is sterling. In year's past, he's a top three prospect.
8. Hinds
The Reds have largely focused high draft picks on power bats. And no one in the minor league system seems to be reaching more of his power than Hinds. I think he gets to 30 HR this season, assuming health.
9. Callihan
I'm a sucker for a 60 hit tool. I'm guessing, with Hinds' moves to RF, Callihan moves to 3B. I see Ray Knight comparisons if he can stay healthy. Might eventually get to more power, but a .330 hitting 20/20 guy would be fantastic at the top of the Red lineup.
10. Petty
Throws 100 and has two other pitches. The benefit of the Red pipeline at present is that he has time to refine. He might need it. He'll stay around this slot until AA, but he could well reach that level rather quickly. I'm guessing low A Daytona this season. In a pitcher's park, he could dominate.
11. Roa
Four solid to above average offerings and a 3.73 ERA overall while moving three levels in 2021. Needs to work on his control. AA bound? That'd be aggressive-- I think more likely A+ Dayton right now. (That team may be stacked.)
12. Bonnin
Bonnin went Super Saiyan on the minor last season, but in too few innings for many to take notice. I'm guessing he and Roa form a TOR tandem in Dayton to begin the season, then move to AA at the halfway mark. Could, IMO, be a closer if they were aggressive in less than a year. (Two 60 pitches are lovely to dream on.) But I'd see if he might reach that TOR ceiling first.
13. Torres
All he did was go .333/ .387/ .591/ .977 in 119 PAs after being drafted. The 5 HR give me pause. That bears watching, especially for a supposed defensively plus SS.
14. Abbott
Barely got his feet wet, but he's LH and has two good pitches. I'm a sucker for a lollopop curveball. He's got one. Look at 1:30 for confirmation.)

15. Hendrick
At the beginning of last season, he was squarely in the top five. That's what a nearly 40% K% will do. He's got to halve that moving forward, and that's a huge ask.

[RedTeamGo!]

That’s a very good write-up, thanks for doing it.

With that said, I’m just not seeing Callihan. The career .313 OBP / .750 OPS for a player supposed to known for his bat is a yikes from me.

[Bourgeois Zee]

That’s a very good write-up, thanks for doing it.

With that said, I’m just not seeing Callihan. The career .313 OBP / .750 OPS for a player supposed to known for his bat is a yikes from me.

Too few PAs to show his real worth. Last season, he was on his way to mashing in the Florida State League. That'll play, I suspect. Reports from instructs and elsewhere paint an equally rosy picture. He'll have to do it on the field, of course, but I really like that bat.

[Mitri]

I like Callihan but his production so far gives me pause too. It’s a critical season for him. Hoping for a strong BA, 20-HR power and decent corner defense type. I’d take that.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I like Callihan but his production so far gives me pause too. It’s a critical season for him. Hoping for a strong BA, 20-HR power and decent corner defense type. I’d take that.

God, yes. That'd be swell.

The last Red 3B to top 20 HR in the minors.

Anyone know?

[camisadelgolf]

God, yes. That'd be swell.

The last Red 3B to top 20 HR in the minors.

Anyone know?

David Vidal?

[Bourgeois Zee]

David Vidal?

You're absolutely correct.

2011, for those of you keeping score.

[Bourgeois Zee]

According to the last prospects' chat with Eric Longenhagen, the Reds' prospect list drops next on Fangraphs.

This is perhaps the latest I can remember Fangraphs has taken with prospect evaluation. They still have half the league to write up, and we're a week from Opening Day.

That, IMO, is really bad for business. I wonder if their business model is suffering and this is the result.

[Tom Servo]

According to the last prospects' chat with Eric Longenhagen, the Reds' prospect list drops next on Fangraphs.

This is perhaps the latest I can remember Fangraphs has taken with prospect evaluation. They still have half the league to write up, and we're a week from Opening Day.

That, IMO, is really bad for business. I wonder if their business model is suffering and this is the result.

I think they admitted in 2020 that the pandemic and shortened season really messed them up.

Personally I've never loved Longenhagen's analysis, its useable but Kiley McDaniel is far superior so it's not surprising ESPN scooped him up and put him behind a paywall.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think they admitted in 2020 that the pandemic and shortened season really messed them up.

Longenhagen is a lesser star, sure, but it's the missed "deadlines" that are problematic.

And those are eminently fixable. You just start these analyses earlier.

(As in, just after the season.)

Longenhagen and Fangraphs chose not to do that, and it's cost them.

[mth123]

Longenhagen is a lesser star, sure, but it's the missed "deadlines" that are problematic.

And those are eminently fixable. You just start these analyses earlier.

(As in, just after the season.)

Longenhagen and Fangraphs chose not to do that, and it's cost them.

What did it cost them? Seems like this is a non-issue. They chose to suspend what they were doing until after the lockout was over. Several prospects have moved around. Their stuff might be more accurate by waiting. What are the consequences of not doing this until now? I don't see any. Once they post it , the people likely to read that stuff, like many of us, will still read it.

[Benihana]

David Vidal?

Nice. Seth Mejias-Brean would’ve been my guess

[klw]

Nice. Seth Mejias-Brean would’ve been my guess

I was going to go with Brandon Larson so I really lose.