My question is.... why are areas all of a sudden dropping mandates when the rolling 7 day olling average on covid deaths is still approximately 2500/daily? What has changed?
My question is.... why are areas all of a sudden dropping mandates when the rolling 7 day olling average on covid deaths is still approximately 2500/daily? What has changed?
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Because they don't really change anything? Places with/without mandates had an absolute ton of cases from Omicron. The difference in deaths was vaccination rate.
We don’t have enough data yet to draw that conclusion about how effective masks were, especially when many were asked to switch to more effective masks in the middle of Omicron.Originally Posted by Boston Red
Places are dropping masks mandates because cases are plummeting in those areas. Cases are around now 1/10 of their highest point in those areas.
Deaths are a lagging indicator, and they are predicted to drop at the same rate in the next few weeks. Same with hospital rates. That said, there is disagreement in the scientific community about the timing of the dropping of the mask mandate. Some would like to wait until deaths and hospital rates drop as well, just be sure. Many scientists are asking the same question GAC posed.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
The reason is that cases numbers will continue to decline.
Think of the number of cases as the speed of a semi truck driving on a hilly road. The hills represent the natural forces of the pandemic. Each new variant is the start of a new downhill section that the semi is going to roll down and pick up speed as it travels downhill. How contagious the variant is, the steeper the hill and the faster the truck accelerates. Omicron was a very steep hill. Conversely, the populations' natural resistance to the virus is an uphill stretch of road. The more collective immunity we have, the steeper the uphill section and the faster the semi will slow. We are able to understand how steep each downhill and uphill section of the road is by testing and monitoring case levels and their rates of change. The truck can be moving very slowly, but if we know it's about to run down a very steep hill, it's time to sound the alarm and use the tools at our disposal. We can't move the hills or choose where they are or how steep they will be, but we can understand whether we're running uphill or downhill. The other thing is, the disease has a slow response. What this means is the truck is fully loaded with weight and has a lot of inertia. It takes a lot of force to get it to speed up or slow down. In other words, because the number of cases of declining sharply right now, cases will continue to decline.
The tools at our disposal act as external forces. Think vaccines, masking, social distancing and restrictions on gatherings. These are things that we choose to use and when to use them (or not). External forces are like the driver pushing the accelerator or brake, but the engine isn't strong enough to cause the truck to speed up while running uphill, and the brakes aren't strong enough to stop the truck while going downhill. The truck is still going to get to the bottom of the valley, but the brakes will mean it's slower than had it just been left to gravity. The opposite is also true. Removing restrictions and mask mandates is like the truck pushing the gas a bit while running steeply up hill. The truck will be slow by the time it gets to the top of the hill, though it might be going a little faster by pushing the gas on the way.
The situation right now is that we're halfway up a very steep hill.
Last edited by paintmered; 02-12-2022 at 11:00 AM.
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
GAC (02-13-2022),Roy Tucker (02-26-2022)
Based on the Super Bowl, I'm glad to see there's no reason for anyone to ever wear a mask in LA!
goreds2 (02-14-2022)
I think school kids still have to wear a mask.
* Attended the 1990 and 2010 Reds Division clinchers *
Go 76ers, Go Steelers and Go Bucks
Agreed. Requiring proof of vaccination or negative test (as was done), was really enough.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
http://dalmady.blogspot.com
Based on feedback from people who were there, that wasn’t enforced either.
I think mask mandates getting dropped is just because people are tired of it.
What would you say.....ya do here?
757690 (02-14-2022)
The state wide mask mandate ends tomorrow.
Over the past two years, this has happened multiple times everywhere. Numbers drop, people stop following protocols and then numbers rise again.
Maybe this time the cycle will end. I’m not betting on it.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
You think dropping of mandates/laxity in following protocols has something to do with the cases rising again? That's a pretty dubious claim IMO.
alwaysawarrior (02-15-2022)
The data is rather obvious on this. It’s not a direct correlation, there are many other factors, but this has been true in nearly every pandemic around the world for quite some time, not just this one. RTG put it perfectly. People get tired of the restrictions. That results in them getting lifted too early in some places, and that helps the virus to keep spreading.
Denmark is a good example right now. It’s about to become the new Sweden:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-...evel/100812736
They lifted all restrictions a few weeks ago and cases have shot up, while they are plummeting everywhere else around the world.COVID-19 cases rise every day in Denmark, but the country is confident it can live without restrictions for now
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I don't think it is. It seems obvious to me that they're pretty much unrelated. Just look at omicron in the US. Adherence to covid protocols varied incredibly widely depending on where you were in the country, and yet the entire country had essentially the same experience with omicron with respect to cases. The difference, of course, came in number of deaths, and that was correlated to vaccine uptake and not adherence to other protocols.
alwaysawarrior (02-15-2022)
First, I said there was no direct correlation, and there never has been, it’s been extremely complex. Density, weather, how many tourists visit, so many factors to consider, and Omicron was a game changer, as it avoided nearly all protocols. We can play this game all day long.
One point to make: I would guess that any correlation to vaccine status also was to mask wearing. People who didn’t get vaccinated were less likely to wear a mask and follow other protocols, while those who were vaccinated were more likely to wear a mask and follow other protocols. I don’t think we can separate them out.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
There's no direct corrleation, but it's obvious. Good to know. And the statement about correlation between vaccine and mask wearing being meaningful is pretty silly in this context. I'll let you figure out why.
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