It’s a shame William Farr isn’t around to take his victory lap.
It’s a shame William Farr isn’t around to take his victory lap.
About what? This looks nothing like Farr’s law’s bell curveOriginally Posted by kaldaniels
Attachment 18046
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
The Omnicron outbreak, which was the topic at hand (the swift rise and fall) sure follows it.
Tough crowd.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/229...cases-vaccines
As the article states Farr’s Law isn’t always perfect when it comes to outbreaks but the Omnicron graph sure fits the bill.
I wouldn't take a victory lap if my law was wrong most of the time with a certain virus, but right once.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Look, I don’t know who Sea Ray was referring to when he said the ones who said cases would drop as fast as they rose were absolutely correct - but I wanted Farr to get his due on that one!
Ok. To me it’s like crediting Tucker Barnhart for a seeing eye single on a night when he struck out in his four other at bats, but if it’s important to you…
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
An interesting quote from that Vox article:
"If public health measures like masking and social distancing are relaxed too soon, cases can bounce back up on their way down. The UK, for instance, reopened schools and relaxed Covid-19 rules before the omicron wave flattened out. Then infections stopped dropping."
Cases in Ohio peaked and then dropped after students came back from Winter Break. That's pretty much the case everywhere in the US.
Post Delta we only got down to around 70k cases/day whereas in June we got down to about 12k cases. We're down to 140k cases on the 7 day average now, and the slope is starting to flatten just a touch (which it has to from a completely vertical drop). It will be interesting to see whether we get to pre-Delta levels or only to post-Delta levels before the next wave.
141k sounds like a pretty big number (and it is), but it represents an 83% drop in daily new cases in a month. Deaths/day just started falling two weeks ago, so hopefully we will start to see those fall just as dramatically as cases very, very soon.
Last edited by Boston Red; 02-16-2022 at 09:30 AM.
Ohio has dropped below post-Delta. With Omicron's transmissibility and evasion of vaccines and non-Omicron prior immunity, I don't know if we will get back to pre-Delta case numbers.
Just received my Government provided test kits in the mail. It only took a month to get here. I hope I never have to use them. To my knowledge I have not had COVID. Still haven't worn a KN95 mask yet. Only the cloth ones.
Reds Fan Since 1971
Sea Ray (02-16-2022)
Good for these students:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/californi...s-mask-mandateStudents from Oak Ridge High School in California protested mask mandates and won!
After their walk out the school relented and will no longer enforce the mandate.
goreds2 (02-16-2022)
Last week it was numbers we hadn't seen since November. This week it's numbers we haven't seen since July.
Last edited by Boston Red; 02-16-2022 at 02:06 PM.
Sea Ray (02-16-2022)
National Guard leaving hospitals is another sign things are getting back to normal
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...er/6753695001/
goreds2 (02-17-2022)
The thing to watch with Omicron is where do the death numbers drop to? We caught Omicron on the heels of the Delta wave, and now more than 300,000 have died off as a result. We haven't had lowish overall death numbers (as a nation) since July, even then it only got down to 250 a day on average. We'll call it a victory if we can get back down to there, but it's still more than 90,000 dead people every year. It's possible we're only going down to double or triple that number as our baseline until the next wave rolls through.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Sure, but it's almost all due to the unvaccinated. It isn't like the deaths are going to hit the general public.
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