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Thread: Hunter Greene

  1. #916
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by thejanitor View Post
    Lodolo didn't have a back injury in 2021. He had blister issues and shoulder fatigue. But you are right, I would wait a little longer before giving him a long term deals. I would also hold off on Greene until another season.
    We had three major pitchers miss time with shoulder injuries this year. On top of having a couple rosters worth of other injuries in general.


    I think it’s time to start questioning this team’s strength and conditioning staff. They cut corners to a cheap and pathetic degree everywhere else, why wouldn’t they do so there too?


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  3. #917
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    I’d say the Reds are betting their future on these 3 pitchers. At least for the next 5 years. If these guys flame out, the Reds are beyond screwed (currently, they are just your garden variety screwed).

    If the Reds are making an all-in bet on these 3, I’d say pay them appropriately.
    I intend to live forever. So far, so good.

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  5. #918
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    We had three major pitchers miss time with shoulder injuries this year.
    I think at least two of those "injuries" should be viewed as questionable, at best.

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  7. #919
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I think at least two of those "injuries" should be viewed as questionable, at best.
    Dang 4 actually now that you mention that

  8. #920
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Extending all three rookie pitchers makes sense.

    The Reds will be paying their arbitration salaries almost no matter what, so locking them in is low risk. The only risk is in the free agent years, but that will only be for 2-3 years each. Odds are good that at least one of them will earn it, so with extending all 3, they reduce the risk for those years too.

    And as Roy said, if the Reds don’t bet on these three, there’s not much hope for the future.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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  10. #921
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Dang 4 actually now that you mention that
    Are you counting Dunn?

  11. #922
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Are you counting Dunn?
    Nope lmao, so at least 5

    Castillo
    Mahle
    Greene
    Lodolo
    Dunn

  12. #923
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Nope lmao, so at least 5

    Castillo
    Mahle
    Greene
    Lodolo
    Dunn
    None of those would be real injuries, fwiw. All four starters were largely preventative-- and none proved injured at all.

    Dunn's was a previous issue.

    This is a nothingburger.

  13. #924
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    As a 23/24 year old pitcher would you bet yourself, production and health against a guaranteed generational wealth? They're only making what, about 700K a year right now?

    I'd offer Greene 7/120, and he'll be a FA between his age 29 and 30 seasons. Give him 10/10/15/15/20/25/25.
    I'd offer Lodolo 6/95, and he'll be a FA between his age 29 and 30 seasons. Give him 10/10/15/15/20/25.
    Spencer Strider, the likely 2022 NL ROY winner, has just inked his extension with the Braves.

    The Braves take on a great deal of financial risk, especially considering they were on the hook for essentially just 3/4's of a million that he's set to make next season. But they've clearly bought into him being a fixture for the next half decade plus.

    The contract is for 6 years and 75 M$, but could be worth 92 M$ over 7 years if the 2029 team option is picked up.

    The contract bypasses Strider's arb years and buys out 1 guaranteed FA year of his --- possibly 2 FA years (assuming he was never sent back to the minors).

    He'll enter the 2023 season with 1.003 years of service (just 3 more days than Lodolo and Greene).

    He was set to make close to league minimum in 2023, and 2024. Have his salaries in 2025, 2026, and 2027 decided via arbitration. Before becoming eligible for FA in November of 2027. Again, these dates are assuming he actually accumulated an additional 5 years of service over the next 5 seasons.

    He'll now make...
    1 M$ in 2023
    1 M$ in 2024
    4 M$ in 2025
    20 M$ in 2026
    22 M$ in 2027
    22 M$ in 2028
    22 M$ TOPT W/ 5 M$ BUYOUT in 2029

    The Braves - trying to win back to back World Series Championships as we speak are owned by a publicly traded company and are thus required to show their books, they are likely to top 200M$ next year in team salaries.

  14. #925
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    In other words if you want to offer Greene or Lodolo an extension right now, that's the ballpark that it'll cost. Since Strider is/was better, they'd both be looking at slightly less but not much less. 7/120 or 6/95 as you've proposed is too much as I stated earlier in the thread.

    Strider is approximately a year younger than Lodolo but a year older than Greene, fwiw.



    EDIT: ---> Something close to these figures is what the Reds would probably have to offer get either to bite:

    1 M$
    2 M$
    9 M$
    13.5 M$
    18 M$
    22.5 M$
    22.5 M$ w/ 5 M$ BUYOUT
    Last edited by Kinsm; 10-12-2022 at 02:21 AM.

  15. #926
    Winning is fun. RiverRat13's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    If the Reds are going to extend either pitcher, they should be creative. They have no money on the books for 2024. Make those big salary years for Greene and Lodolo. It's appealing for the players as they get their money sooner.

  16. #927
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    In other words if you want to offer Greene or Lodolo an extension right now, that's the ballpark that it'll cost. Since Strider is/was better, they'd both be looking at slightly less but not much less. 7/120 or 6/95 as you've proposed is too much as I stated earlier in the thread.

    Strider is approximately a year younger than Lodolo but a year older than Greene, fwiw.



    EDIT: ---> Something close to these figures is what the Reds would probably have to offer get either to bite:

    1 M$
    2 M$
    9 M$
    13.5 M$
    18 M$
    22.5 M$
    22.5 M$ w/ 5 M$ BUYOUT
    That's good. I wasnt sure where the overall value would need to fall to reasonably think Greene & Lodolo would sign. A 6/75 with a 22 mm option for the 7th year, making it a potential 7/97 makes even more sense for the Reds to get out in front of this thing now.

    Heck Bob might even like this specific type of deal structure as it pays minimal $ over the first two years of the deal.

    So the ? becomes, have we seen enough from Hunter and Nick to consider them worthy of the deal/risk? IMO, yes.

  17. #928
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    That's good. I wasnt sure where the overall value would need to fall to reasonably think Greene & Lodolo would sign. A 6/75 with a 22 mm option for the 7th year, making it a potential 7/97 makes even more sense for the Reds to get out in front of this thing now.

    Heck Bob might even like this specific type of deal structure as it pays minimal $ over the first two years of the deal.

    So the ? becomes, have we seen enough from Hunter and Nick to consider them worthy of the deal/risk? IMO, yes.
    Greene yes. Lodolo no. Lets see if he can make it through a season without 90 days on the IL.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  18. #929
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    I would consider offering Greene a 7 or 8 year deal in 70 million range.
    2023 1M
    2024 2M
    2025 7M
    2026 10M
    2027 12M
    2028 20M
    2029 20M

    That comes out to 7/72 and buys out two free agent years for 40 million, and let's Greene hit FA at age 30. You could throw in a team option to bring it to the 8/100 range. I think Greene has the physical ability and makeup to be a Verlander type stud ace. The Reds have to take a risk at some point so do it with a potential ace.

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  20. #930
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    It's far too early to offer Greene a long deal. He's ours for at least another 5 yrs. He needs to show he can stay healthy. We also don't know if he'll age well


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