Hunter Greene

[cumberlandreds]

Because he said so

He is the all knowing Carnac the Magnificent!

[RiverRat13]

I am glad Hunter Greene is a Red.

[Tony Cloninger]

Because he said so

[Rojo Rijo]

Greene and Lodolo are set to make 3/4's of a million dollars each of the next two years.

Maximum arb raises if they pitch like 1st ballot HOF'ers year-in/year-out from here on out would probably be something like maximum 12M$, 21M$, 35M$ (more than Ohtani even made) in their 3 arb years.

Then a FA contract that would pay them mid 40 million per.

Why on earth would you give them 10M$ per next season when you're only buying up 1 or 2 of their FA years?

Those would easily be the largest contracts ever given to a pitcher with 1 year of service.

You better hope both turn into Cy Young and stay healthy.

It's definitely a risk but based on what they did this season, and seeing them both live, i'd do it and stabilize the top of the rotation for the next 6 years.

Both of them have massively high ceilings.

If the Reds want to create a club that is going to be consistently competitive they need stability, like pillars, within the organization. I can't imagine a better place to start than to lock down two likely TOR starters.

[Rojo Rijo]

A younger pitcher is more likely to bet on himself than an older pitcher. The older pitcher is more likely to look for security.

Also, they might want to play for a winning organization.

I think as Reds fan we tend to overvalue the idea of players being turned off by Cincinnati because they want to play for a winning organization. I also think its more logical to think that of a FA who's never played in Cincinnati than it is for guys who were drafted/developed by the Reds.

[mth123]

It's definitely a risk but based on what they did this season, and seeing them both live, i'd do it and stabilize the top of the rotation for the next 6 years.

Both of them have massively high ceilings.

If the Reds want to create a club that is going to be consistently competitive they need stability, like pillars, within the organization. I can't imagine a better place to start than to lock down two likely TOR starters.

Lodolo's back seems like it should be more concerning than it seems to be. He missed half of 2021 with back issues and half of 2022 with back issues. I think he's a very good pitcher and like when he's out there, but I wouldn't be planning on him as a "pillar" at this point and certainly not a guy to give a long-term deal to. If he makes through 2023 without any back issues, I might consider trying to lock him up.

I'd be OK if they locked Greene up to a win-win deal where he makes more money in pre-arb and the Reds get a couple extra years at a reasonable price. Right now while the payroll is pretty low is the time to front load a deal or two.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Lodolo's back seems like it should be more concerning than it seems to be. He missed half of 2021 with back issues and half of 2022 with back issues. I think he's a very good pitcher and like when he's out there, but I wouldn't be planning on him as a "pillar" at this point and certainly not a guy to give a long-term deal to. If he makes through 2023 without any back issues, I might consider trying to lock him up.

I'd be OK if they locked Greene up to a win-win deal where he makes more money in pre-arb and the Reds get a couple extra years at a reasonable price. Right now while the payroll is pretty low is the time to front load a deal or two.

I'd wait until arbitration until I look at a long-term deal, but that's just me.

Now's the time to add (massive) salary from outside the organization to add talent. That would be made more difficult with LTCs given to Lodolo and Greene.

[mth123]

I'd wait until arbitration until I look at a long-term deal, but that's just me.

Now's the time to add (massive) salary from outside the organization to add talent. That would be made more difficult with LTCs given to Lodolo and Greene.

True, but Moose and Votto will be coming of the books after this year. There is no reason they can't sign some longer term deals and sign Greene. Wait at least another year on Lodolo and see if he misses massive chunks of time again.

[Mitri]

True, but Moose and Votto will be coming of the books after this year. There is no reason they can't sign some longer term deals and sign Greene. Wait at least another year on Lodolo and see if he misses massive chunks of time again.

Agree on the first part, but I'd flip those priorities of the second. Try to sign Lodolo before he has another stellar season. Wait a year on Hunter to see how he holds up.

Or just extend them both now and make more modest FA investments, increasing as the team matures.

[RustyJ]

As a 23/24 year old pitcher would you bet yourself, production and health against a guaranteed generational wealth? They're only making what, about 700K a year right now?

It seems like the percent of pre-arb pitchers that get scared into team friendly deals is less than we as fans would expect, and Greene seems better situated than most to wait it out, so I'm gonna put the odds on that as long unless the Reds are making a serious financial commitment. And we're talking about the Reds here.

[Rojo Rijo]

List of SP in their first 100+ IP seasons starting:

2.69 ERA / 144K-43BB / 140.1 IP / 128 ERA+ / 9.2 K9 - 2.8 BB / Age 26
4.12 ERA / 174K-63BB / 170.1 IP / 108 ERA+ / 9.2 K9 - 3.3 BB9 / Age 24
3.22 ERA / 100K-28BB / 117.1 IP / 111 ERA+ / 7.7 K9 - 2.1 BB9 / Age 22
2.96 ERA / 195K-38BB / 185.2 IP / 143 ERA+ / 9.5 K9 - 1.8 BB9 / Age 24
3.75 ERA / 139K-71BB / 139.1 IP / 104 ERA+ / 9.0 K9 - 4.6 BB / Age 22
3.91 ERA / 226K-68BB / 165.2 IP / 112 ERA+ / 12.3 K9 - 3.7 BB9 / Age 25
4.26 ERA / 100K-52BB / 107.2 IP / 98 ERA+ / 8.4 K9 - 4.3 BB / Age 20
4.78 ERA / 121K-29BB / 111.0 IP / 87 ERA+ / 9.8 K9 - 2.4 BB9 / Age 23
4.55 ERA / 118K-23BB / 114.2 IP / 95 ERA+ / 9.3 K9 - 1.8 BB9 / Age 23
3.42 ERA / 84K-46BB / 100.0 IP/ 104 ERA+ / 7.6 K9 - 4.1 BB9 / Age 23
3.52 ERA / 119K-49BB / 127.2 IP / 117 ERA+ / 8.4 K9 - 3.5 BB9 / Age 23
4.04 ERA / 119K-59BB / 129.1 IP / 104 ERA+ / 8.3 K9 - 4.1 BB9 / Age 24
4.44 ERA / 164K-48BB / 125.2 IP / 100 ERA+ / 11.7 K9 - 3.4 BB9 / Age 22
3.66 ERA / 131-39BB / 103.1 IP / 122 ERA+ / 11.4 K9 - 3.4 BB9 / Age 24


The pitchers listed above in order:
deGrom
Scherzer
Cole
Urias
Rodon
Cease
Kershaw
Nola
Bieber
Wheeler
Ray
Snell
Greene
Lodolo

What stands out?
Greene and Lodolo rank #2 and #3 on the list in K per 9.
Greene and Lodolo are middle of the pack, tied for 7th (out of 13) with a 3.4 BB per 9.
Lodolo ranks 2nd in ERA+ - 122.

While Greenes ERA sticks out at 4.44 I would suggest looking at his 2nd half stats:
35.1 IP / 51 K / 8 BB / 1.03 ERA

My point here is I think Greene and Lodolo are going to be an absolute legit 1-2 TOR for this club and again I would try and buyout 2-3 of their FA years this winter. It's not completely ridiculous to think that both of these guys could compete for Cy Young awards over the next decade. The above group holds 11 of the last 22 Cy Young awards.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

For all the hand-wringing done earlier in the season Hunter put together a perfectly cromulent rookie season for a 22-year-old. As long as he can stay healthy I think he'll just get better.

I agree with your perfectly cromulent post. Well done, sir.

[Sea Ray]

Does anyone actually believe that Hunter Greene will have an ERA below 4.00 next season?

Sure, it's possible.

But, it's not going to happen.

Of Ashcraft, Lodolo and Greene, Ashcraft is the most likely to have the lowest ERA next season of the three, and is the most likely to have an ERA below 4.00.

In 2024, all three probably will, but not next year, with Lodolo likely having the lowest ERA of the three in 2024.

All three could do better if a little less pressure was place upon them by adding a Veteran Pitcher to serve as the team's #1 Starter, if only for one season.

How 'bout bringing back Cessa as that veteran pitcher?

[mth123]

Agree on the first part, but I'd flip those priorities of the second. Try to sign Lodolo before he has another stellar season. Wait a year on Hunter to see how he holds up.

Or just extend them both now and make more modest FA investments, increasing as the team matures.

I want to see if Lodolo can make it through a season without missing 3 months with back issues like he has in 2021 and 2022 before giving him a long-term deal. I'm not sure why something that looks like it could be a chronic issue is being completely glossed over.

[thejanitor]

I want to see if Lodolo can make it through a season without missing 3 months with back issues like he has in 2021 and 2022 before giving him a long-term deal. I'm not sure why something that looks like it could be a chronic issue is being completely glossed over.

Lodolo didn't have a back injury in 2021. He had blister issues and shoulder fatigue. But you are right, I would wait a little longer before giving him a long term deals. I would also hold off on Greene until another season.