mth123 (10-05-2022),Old school 1983 (10-05-2022),Ron Madden (10-04-2022)
It's definitely a risk but based on what they did this season, and seeing them both live, i'd do it and stabilize the top of the rotation for the next 6 years.
Both of them have massively high ceilings.
If the Reds want to create a club that is going to be consistently competitive they need stability, like pillars, within the organization. I can't imagine a better place to start than to lock down two likely TOR starters.
Last edited by Rojo Rijo; 10-05-2022 at 08:06 AM.
I think as Reds fan we tend to overvalue the idea of players being turned off by Cincinnati because they want to play for a winning organization. I also think its more logical to think that of a FA who's never played in Cincinnati than it is for guys who were drafted/developed by the Reds.
Lodolo's back seems like it should be more concerning than it seems to be. He missed half of 2021 with back issues and half of 2022 with back issues. I think he's a very good pitcher and like when he's out there, but I wouldn't be planning on him as a "pillar" at this point and certainly not a guy to give a long-term deal to. If he makes through 2023 without any back issues, I might consider trying to lock him up.
I'd be OK if they locked Greene up to a win-win deal where he makes more money in pre-arb and the Reds get a couple extra years at a reasonable price. Right now while the payroll is pretty low is the time to front load a deal or two.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Old school 1983 (10-05-2022),Revering4Blue (10-05-2022)
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Revering4Blue (10-05-2022)
It seems like the percent of pre-arb pitchers that get scared into team friendly deals is less than we as fans would expect, and Greene seems better situated than most to wait it out, so I'm gonna put the odds on that as long unless the Reds are making a serious financial commitment. And we're talking about the Reds here.
List of SP in their first 100+ IP seasons starting:
2.69 ERA / 144K-43BB / 140.1 IP / 128 ERA+ / 9.2 K9 - 2.8 BB / Age 26
4.12 ERA / 174K-63BB / 170.1 IP / 108 ERA+ / 9.2 K9 - 3.3 BB9 / Age 24
3.22 ERA / 100K-28BB / 117.1 IP / 111 ERA+ / 7.7 K9 - 2.1 BB9 / Age 22
2.96 ERA / 195K-38BB / 185.2 IP / 143 ERA+ / 9.5 K9 - 1.8 BB9 / Age 24
3.75 ERA / 139K-71BB / 139.1 IP / 104 ERA+ / 9.0 K9 - 4.6 BB / Age 22
3.91 ERA / 226K-68BB / 165.2 IP / 112 ERA+ / 12.3 K9 - 3.7 BB9 / Age 25
4.26 ERA / 100K-52BB / 107.2 IP / 98 ERA+ / 8.4 K9 - 4.3 BB / Age 20
4.78 ERA / 121K-29BB / 111.0 IP / 87 ERA+ / 9.8 K9 - 2.4 BB9 / Age 23
4.55 ERA / 118K-23BB / 114.2 IP / 95 ERA+ / 9.3 K9 - 1.8 BB9 / Age 23
3.42 ERA / 84K-46BB / 100.0 IP/ 104 ERA+ / 7.6 K9 - 4.1 BB9 / Age 23
3.52 ERA / 119K-49BB / 127.2 IP / 117 ERA+ / 8.4 K9 - 3.5 BB9 / Age 23
4.04 ERA / 119K-59BB / 129.1 IP / 104 ERA+ / 8.3 K9 - 4.1 BB9 / Age 24
4.44 ERA / 164K-48BB / 125.2 IP / 100 ERA+ / 11.7 K9 - 3.4 BB9 / Age 22
3.66 ERA / 131-39BB / 103.1 IP / 122 ERA+ / 11.4 K9 - 3.4 BB9 / Age 24
The pitchers listed above in order:
deGrom
Scherzer
Cole
Urias
Rodon
Cease
Kershaw
Nola
Bieber
Wheeler
Ray
Snell
Greene
Lodolo
What stands out?
Greene and Lodolo rank #2 and #3 on the list in K per 9.
Greene and Lodolo are middle of the pack, tied for 7th (out of 13) with a 3.4 BB per 9.
Lodolo ranks 2nd in ERA+ - 122.
While Greenes ERA sticks out at 4.44 I would suggest looking at his 2nd half stats:
35.1 IP / 51 K / 8 BB / 1.03 ERA
My point here is I think Greene and Lodolo are going to be an absolute legit 1-2 TOR for this club and again I would try and buyout 2-3 of their FA years this winter. It's not completely ridiculous to think that both of these guys could compete for Cy Young awards over the next decade. The above group holds 11 of the last 22 Cy Young awards.
Last edited by Rojo Rijo; 10-05-2022 at 09:22 AM.
Old school 1983 (10-05-2022),Red Raindog (10-05-2022),Roy Tucker (10-05-2022)
“It’s the mathematical potential for a single game to last forever, in a suspended world where no clock rules the day, that aligns baseball as much with the dead as the living.”
---- Bill Vaughn
"Science adjusts its views based on what's observed. Faith is the denial of observation so that belief can be preserved." ---Tim Minchin("Storm")
Tom Servo (10-05-2022)
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Revering4Blue (10-05-2022)
Old school 1983 (10-05-2022)
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