Hunter Greene

[mth123]

Out of the top pitching prospects for Cincinnati, Lodolo's the one who needs innings the worst, IMO.

I'm all for him spending at least half a season in AAA and likely the entire season.

If he's dominant the entire way, a September call-up is a great reward. Otherwise, work on the innings and blister issues that plagued him last year. I think Greene is likely ticketed for at least half a season in the majors this year. Next season, assuming health and no hiccups, we should see Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Williamson as viable major league pitchers.

Were I GM, I'd try to sign either Castillo or Mahle to a three- or four-year contract and deal the other this year (as they aren't going to compete anyway) at the deadline for a big-time return. A Castillo/ Greene/ Ashcraft/ Lodolo/ Williamson starting quintet (with Dunn, Sanmartin, Gutierrez, O'Brien, and others as AAA depth) for four years control under $25M total is a great way to compete-- or, because the owners are penurious buttheads, collect as many millions as fans are dumb enough to spend.

sign 'em both, with Minor, Vlad and Greene in the rotation. Trade Minor at the deadline and bring up whichever kid is ready to take that slot. Next year Castillo, Greene, Mahle, Lodolo and Vlad for a while, then Williamson if he's ready. With Vlad is the emergency option. Ashcraft is the option if the others just aren't ready.

[Bourgeois Zee]

sign 'em both, with Minor, Vlad and Greene in the rotation. Trade Minor at the deadline and bring up whichever kid is ready to take that slot. Next year Castillo, Greene, Mahle, Lodolo and Vlad for a while, then Williamson if he's ready. With Vlad is the emergency option. Ashcraft is the option if the others just aren't ready.

Ashcraft showed elite ground ball tendencies and elite K peripherals without major BB issues. He's also shown an ability to handle a relatively heavy innings load.

Those types tend to be ready sooner rather than later and are typically dominant.

He is, IMO, on the same track as Lodolo, slightly behind Greene. I haven't done a deep dive into Williamson yet, so I'm not sure where he is.

We disagree philosophically on readiness-- I'm of the opinion that there are only so many bullets in most high-octane arms, and it's better to use them at the major league level than in the minors. You want your pitchers over-ready, or as close as they can be.

[mth123]

Ashcraft showed elite ground ball tendencies and elite K peripherals without major BB issues. He's also shown an ability to handle a relatively heavy innings load.

Those types tend to be ready sooner rather than later and are typically dominant.

He is, IMO, on the same track as Lodolo, slightly behind Greene. I haven't done a deep dive into Williamson yet, so I'm not sure where he is.

We disagree philosophically on readiness-- I'm of the opinion that there are only so many bullets in most high-octane arms, and it's better to use them at the major league level than in the minors. You want your pitchers over-ready, or as close as they can be.

Where we disagree is that the reds aren't going to use all the bullets before they become too expensive. Rush them before they are ready for the load or they have all their pitches and they'll end up with a lot fewer bullets. If these guys are all used up at age 32 or 33, they won't be Reds by then. Fiddle around and they may never be more than fringe guys and be done by 27 or 28.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Where we disagree is that the reds aren't going to use all the bullets before they become too expensive. Rush them before they are ready for the load or they have all their pitches and they'll end up with a lot fewer bullets. If these guys are all used up at age 32 or 33, they won't be Reds by then. Fiddle around and they may never be more than fringe guys and be done by 27 or 28.

And conversely, pitch them in the minors and watch them blow out their arm, and they'll never do anything for anyone.

[mth123]

And conversely, pitch them in the minors and watch them blow out their arm, and they'll never do anything for anyone.

Much less likely to blow out in the minors. Big leagues are where guys run up the pitch counts and cause guys to overthrow to impress their teammates.

I think they will all be ready by the end of 2023. I'm not in favor of all of them at once. Greene first. Then probably Lodolo, but maybe Williamson. Ashcraft doesn't seem to have the prospect respect of the others. He may be the closer. Looks like a two pitch pitcher.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Much less likely to blow out in the minors.

I'd like to see your numbers on this.

[mth123]

I'd like to see your numbers on this.

Numbers would be apples and oranges. There are a lot more guys in the minors, many of whom were drafted with iffy medical backgrounds, so you'd surely have more injuries there, but the minors are gauntlet to be run to get to the big leagues. Surviving with mechanics and health intact is part of the test.

[Kc61]

We disagree philosophically on readiness-- I'm of the opinion that there are only so many bullets in most high-octane arms, and it's better to use them at the major league level than in the minors. You want your pitchers over-ready, or as close as they can be.

Also, most pitchers do not arrive in big leagues instantaneously ready. Readiness requires exposure to big league hitters.

If one is going to delay that process there needs to be a good reason - once he has had a fair number of AAA reps.

Keep guys at AAA an extra few months, you may just be prolonging overall development.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Numbers would be apples and oranges. There are a lot more guys in the minors, many of whom were drafted with iffy medical backgrounds, so you'd surely have more injuries there, but the minors are gauntlet to be run to get to the big leagues. Surviving with mechanics and health intact is part of the test.

This is as old school as it gets.

And, IMO, a massive mistake in today's game.

[mth123]

Also, most pitchers do not arrive in big leagues instantaneously ready. Readiness requires exposure to big league hitters.

If one is going to delay that process there needs to be a good reason - once he has had a fair number of AAA reps.

Keep guys at AAA an extra few months, you may just be prolonging overall development.

Readiness doesn't mean perfect. It means he has three pitches he can locate and effectively change speeds with the stamina to throw 100 pitches 32 times per year. I think Greene is iffy from the stamina standpoint, but probably close enough as long as he doesn't have to be the guy to carry the load when the staff needs a long outing. I think Lodolo is definitely iffy from the stamina standpoint. Ashcraft lacks a third pitch, but his other two and stamina seem ready. Don't know about Williamson.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Readiness doesn't mean perfect. It means he has three pitches he can locate and effectively change speeds with the stamina to throw 100 pitches 32 times per year. I think Greene is iffy from the stamina standpoint, but probably close enough as long as he doesn't have to be the guy to carry the load when the staff needs a long outing. I think Lodolo is definitely iffy from the stamina standpoint. Ashcraft lacks a third pitch, but his other two and stamina seem ready. Don't know about Williamson.

Insisting a starter have three 50+ pitches before he's considered major league ready is so 1987.

Jack Flaherty, Luis Patino, Shance McClanahan, 2020 Tyler Glasnow, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Jr. (pre-slider addition), Kevin Gausman (as a Red moving forward), Lucas Giolito, Dinelson Lamet, and Framber Valdez are all two-pitch pitchers. In short, having two pitches instead of three has remarkably little to do with being a quality starter or going deep into games.

Interestingly, it seems pitchers up to 90% combined usage of their top two pitchers performed best. They tied for the highest strikeout rates and posted the lowest walk rates, lowest park and league adjusted FIPs, and the highest WAR accumulation rates of all the relevant bins. All of these figures steadily decrease as the pitch mixes become less concentrated in the top two pitches.

[JFLegal]

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/hunter...-reds-rotation

this kid is going to be a superstar

[UPRedsFan]

this kid is going to be a superstar

Perhaps we're underestimating our team. Maybe they can win with young pitching and a platoon based offense.
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft
Williamson
Santillan
Vlad
Dunn
Sanmartin

If Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft/Williamson don't have the ability to throw 180 innings yet, they can still do some tandem starts, 2 or 3 inning openers, middle relief. This could be a strong pitching staff behind Castillo and Mahle. I'd feel better if there was a veteran closer and another right hand bat to play the outfield

[MikeS21]

The main problem with bringing guys to the major leagues sooner is that too many folks forget that there are going to be growing pains. Fans expect Hunter Greene to show up and start blowing hitters away and winning Cy Young Awards for the next ten seasons. If he doesn’t do it, then he’s a “bust.”

Well, I am saying that after watching Greene pitch last year at AA and AAA, he had some issues with hitters the second and third time through the lineup. Mainly due to a lack of an off-speed pitch. Now, it’s been reported that his change has been worked on over the off-season. If that is true, it should help. But it may be another “best shape of my life” story.

If Greene gets promoted, no one should expect any All-Star games or Cy Young awards for a couple years. That doesn’t make him a bust.

[Ironman92]

I’ll continue to stick with my thoughts that a young pitcher gets hit around a little bit and demoted…..if he doesn’t have the makeup to not let it affect him…he probably doesn’t have what it takes to make it anyways.

That said I don’t trust the Reds organization to best develop him be it when he’s 22 and in the bigs or 25. I just don’t.

I see no reason he can’t be a young Luis Castilla