Hunter Greene

[Old school 1983]

I think his slider is promising. But it needs more seasoning. And yes, working on other offerings might help his slider to be a more effective. Here's a true Out pitch:



Greene's is pretty good, but it is not that.



Actually, if Greene had only a couple more Innings to qualify he'd have the highest P/IP (18.3) rate among all MLB pitching qualifiers. So far he's been the epitome of a guy who quickly racks up a ton of pitches over few Innings.

Rijo was so nasty. Hard to believe that was 32 years ago.

[membengal]

I know steel knows this, but Rijo's slider wasn't THAT when he was 21 and 22 getting hammered as a kid rushed with the A's. Reds got him in a trade and he finished developing over the next few years and...magic. Hoping that Greene has development in him for his secondary pitches too. But it isn't too late that it hasn't happened yet. Course, it may never happen.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...rijojo01.shtml

[Big Klu]

I know steel knows this, but Rijo's slider wasn't THAT when he was 21 and 22 getting hammered as a kid rushed with the A's. Reds got him in a trade and he finished developing over the next few years and...magic. Hoping that Greene has development in him for his secondary pitches too. But it isn't too late that it hasn't happened yet. Course, it may never happen.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...rijojo01.shtml

Rijo was rushed with the Yankees before he was rushed with the A's

[WrongVerb]

Rijo was rushed with the Yankees before he was rushed with the A's

Steinbrenner wanted a Yankees version of Doc Gooden. Couldn't handle the Mets getting all the press.

[Big Klu]

Steinbrenner wanted a Yankees version of Doc Gooden. Couldn't handle the Mets getting all the press.

Then they traded him to the A's for Rickey Henderson.

[membengal]

Rijo was rushed with the Yankees before he was rushed with the A's

that is also true

[GAC]

He's 22 and we hope he learns, preferably quickly.

He's being tutored by one of the best pitching coaches in baseball.

But I still say inexperience is the key issue. He played zero college baseball, was drafted right out of high school by the Reds (2017), and went into the Red's farm system. Yet the next three years (18-20), there's only little to go on because of injury/recovery and the pandemic (did not pitch). In '21 he was solid at Chattanooga (7 games), and alright at Louisville (14 games). But was shut down in Sept. due to pitch count. He threw 106 innings that season.

So I just think he needs more time/seasoning, a WIP, and he'll get it right. He's not going to make it relying so heavily on four-seam fastball IMO. Needs to further develop his slider and change-up.

https://www.rotoballer.com/pitch-rat...steele/1013867

[RedTeamGo!]

He's being tutored by one of the best pitching coaches in baseball.

ehhhhhh

[M2]

He's not going to make it relying so heavily on four-seam fastball IMO.

This is getting circular, but that's true because his four-seamer is not the devastating pitch we hoped it would be be. What you're basically saying is what we thought his meal ticket would be won't buy him a meal. That is true, but it's the sort of uncomfortable fact that should obliterate any complacency about the path Greene is on. He is not the phenom we imagined him to be (e.g. Dwight Gooden). How does he ultimately get good? IMO, it's going to take a lot of work to add the element(s) he needs more than repetition with an insufficient arsenal.

[lollipopcurve]

Greene's already come a long way, given that he had TJ. The Reds have taught him the slider -- he did not have one in high school. It's become a good one, if inconsistent. The fastball is as advertised -- very hard but easy to square up when it's got too much of the plate and is below the upper reaches of the zone. I think Greene has picked up some armside run with it by lowering his arm slot, so that's good. If he can get better command of the fastball, look out. Some progress with the off speed would be nice. Look at Mahle -- it has taken him several years to get that split he uses well now. Maybe Greene ends up with an off speed pitch like that. One thing for sure -- his development will continue well beyond this year and next.

[Kc61]

Greene is very much a work in progress. I wouldn’t form any conclusions about him right now. Other than he has a great arm and can be very effective in spots.

A year or two from now Hunter could be a very different pitcher.

The current snapshot of Greene is food for discussion, but it’s obvious that he needs refinement. He’s young, not too much minor league experience. Just developing some of his pitches. One can argue he belonged at AAA this season.

[RustyJ]

I think Greene has picked up some armside run with it by lowering his arm slot, so that's good.

To put on my fake pitching coach hat, I’d venture to say the boosted run has been a terrible development. Greene has average rise and above average run. That implies he has above average raw spin rates, but the outcome movement makes his 100mph fastball look like a batting tee. I’d be trading as much horizontal movement for vertical as I could.

[M2]

I suppose the question is would Greene be throwing more changes in AAA? If that's key to him adding verticality and a change of speed then he needs to be somewhere he can experiment with that pitch.

[lollipopcurve]

To put on my fake pitching coach hat, I’d venture to say the boosted run has been a terrible development. Greene has average rise and above average run. That implies he has above average raw spin rates, but the outcome movement makes his 100mph fastball look like a batting tee. I’d be trading as much horizontal movement for vertical as I could.

This is interesting, and I can’t say I know enough about the interplay of horizontal and vertical movement on hitting outcomes. I’m sure the Reds have that all sussed out, as would all teams these days. My guess is that it’s easier to gain horizontal movement (e.g., via arm slot), but just a guess. The sticky stuff has been helping pitchers gain vertical deception via higher spin rate…not sure to what extent MLB has been able to control that. I need to go read that article someone mentioned about how Greene’s stuff almost seeks barrels…..
In any case, it’s my understanding that to a meaningful extent pitchers are bound by their own mechanics to a range of gettable spin. Greene can still learn and perfect new pitches, and refine what he’s got, but I’m thinking that he’s never going to be a high-spin guy. He’s got brute force, athleticism and smarts.

[MoneyInTheBank]

One interesting thing about Greene's stats is his xERA is about a run and a half lower than his ERA, ditto for his xFIP vs FIP and his SIERA is under 4. Are we doing too much hand wringing about his "stuff" when those numbers portend future success? I hesitate to call it bad luck because he's given up the hard contact and HRs but there is certainly data to say he's not the total disaster his ERA would suggest.