Reds bullpen, currently

[Ron Madden]

Bobby Nightengale
@nightengalejr

Reds notebook: T.J. Zeuch will pitch Wednesday for his hometown team;

David Bell says they'll look for different spots to use Hunter Strickland;

Jeff Hoffman, on the 15-day IL, will be examined in Cincy because his arm is still bothering him.

[Kc61]

Do the Reds have any “hidden gem” relievers in the high minor leagues? I don’t mean starters who might convert like, maybe, Williamson.

I had never focused on Alexis Diaz before this season. Is there another Diaz lurking at AA or AAA?

[WrongVerb]

Do the Reds have any “hidden gem” relievers in the high minor leagues? I don’t mean starters who might convert like, maybe, Williamson.

I had never focused on Alexis Diaz before this season. Is there another Diaz lurking at AA or AAA?

I tend to think that if a pitcher is purely a reliever in the minors, he's going to flame out at the major league level. Diaz is an outlier. Conversions are better.

[mth123]

I tend to think that if a pitcher is purely a reliever in the minors, he's going to flame out at the major league level. Diaz is an outlier. Conversions are better.

Agree completely. Teams don't move guys they think have the pitches and the stuff to start to the bullpen. They are moved there when they are already judged a lesser arm in some way. Now some guys may have one devastating pitch that they can consistently use in short stints and still be great relievers, but usually in the minors guys like that are trying to be developed as starters with the hope they can add another pitch or two. If they've already given up on that idea by AA, chances are small. Diaz has has 40 or so innings this year. He looks great but we have to remember that for relievers, an entire season is a small sample size. That's the real reason relievers are so "volatile." It just takes a couple of seasons to see what we really have.

Another issue making it so hard to get a read on relievers is that relievers are usually matched up in favorable circumstances. So not only are the samples small, but they aren't "random" samples, making them even less statistically significant. I hope Diaz can be a reliable reliever for a few years, but it's still really too soon to judge. It's another reason they need 5 or 6 guys who look like Diaz going in, because some are proven to be mirages. Art Warren is a great example of this. It's something the Reds should have seen coming. Late 20's minor leaguers rarely become anything more than minor leaguers.

Diaz is young and just watching him pitch, he has some good stuff, so I'm hopeful, but I hope the reds are planning for a lot of redundancy in the bullpen, because it disappears quickly.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I tend to think that if a pitcher is purely a reliever in the minors, he's going to flame out at the major league level. Diaz is an outlier. Conversions are better.

That's not as true in today's farm system (at least for other teams). Houston, Tampa, LA, New York, Seattle and others often develop pitchers as srictly relief arms.

The advantage of that is that the pitchers tend to move quickly.

The disadvantage is that they're pigeon-holed for their entire career-- and they seem to flame out a bit more. (Though that may be statistical noise due to relatively small samples.)

[Bourgeois Zee]

I wouldn't put Antone in stone yet. Two TJS is quite a bit to come back from.

I wouldn't think I'd have to write "if healthy," but assume I put that at the beginning of my post.

If Tejay Antone is healthy, he should be written in stone as a bullpen member.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Do the Reds have any “hidden gem” relievers in the high minor leagues?

Jared Solomon is as close as they have, and he's been underwhelming both from a stuff and performance standpoint this season.

After TJ surgery, his stuff's backed up to merely solidly decent.

[Big Klu]

I wouldn't think I'd have to write "if healthy," but assume I put that at the beginning of my post.

If Tejay Antone is healthy, he should be written in stone as a bullpen member.

Even if he's healthy, beware small sample size.

Do we really know who Tejay Antone is? He has thrown only 69 innings in his career (good innings, I'll admit), and has already been under the knife twice. Unfortunately, I think he's still in "prove it" mode.

[Kc61]

Jared Solomon is as close as they have, and he's been underwhelming both from a stuff and performance standpoint this season.

After TJ surgery, his stuff's backed up to merely solidly decent.

Appreciate your direct answers to my question. I know about the minor league starters, I know that converted starters can be good relievers. But was asking about relievers flying “under the radar.” One name I focused on was Andy Fisher at AA, a lefty. Walk rate and ERA a bit high, has the strikeouts, might be a decent lefty reliever at some point.

[757690]

Even if he's healthy, beware small sample size.

Do we really know who Tejay Antone is? He has thrown only 69 innings in his career (good innings, I'll admit), and has already been under the knife twice. Unfortunately, I think he's still in "prove it" mode.

He’s also not pitched since the crack down on the sticky stuff. He had crazy high spin rates, a sign of using the stuff. Even if he gets 100% healthy, he may have trouble pitching “clean.”

[Tony Cloninger]

Jared Solomon is as close as they have, and he's been underwhelming both from a stuff and performance standpoint this season.

After TJ surgery, his stuff's backed up to merely solidly decent.

He’s been worse in AAA. As it’s always asked. Is he hurt?

Ricky Alvarez looks like a possible bullpen chap.

Spencer Stockton.

They all seem to have decent numbers until it seems they get here.

[Kc61]

He’s been worse in AAA. As it’s always asked. Is he hurt?

Ricky Alvarez looks like a possible bullpen chap.

Spencer Stockton.

They all seem to have decent numbers until it seems they get here.

I don’t think looking at minor league numbers tells the full story for these relief pitchers. A couple of bad outings can mess up the ERA/FIP pretty badly. And some require patience, especially with control.

[Tony Cloninger]

I don’t think looking at minor league numbers tells the full story for these relief pitchers. A couple of bad outings can mess up the ERA/FIP pretty badly. And some require patience, especially with control.

That is true. However I have seen more than a few with ERA at this point and since about May-June. At 5.00 or 6.00. Some of these guys are allowing 4-5 runs one game. Then go a few games with no runs allowed. Then get tagged for 2-3 here and there.

Basically they look like Farmer or Girud. They look good for a few outings. Then blow up a few games. After you start trusting them.

I’m looking at the ones who have been good enough not to have ERA over 3.50 with good hits to IP ratios or good BB to SO ratios.

I do see several issues with control that seem to permeate through the system.

At this point Joe Boyle should probably be made into a middle long reliever but not be overused like Antone
Seemed to be at points last year. For necessity

[Bourgeois Zee]

Even if he's healthy, beware small sample size.

Do we really know who Tejay Antone is? He has thrown only 69 innings in his career (good innings, I'll admit), and has already been under the knife twice. Unfortunately, I think he's still in "prove it" mode.

Doesn't matter how small the sample or if it was done with sticky stuff.

He was among the best relievers in the entire game for every inning he pitched.

That type of arm is kept-- and penciled in as an absolute-- no matter how poorly he might pitch in Spring Training.

You can revisit whether he deserves his spot around Memorial Day, IMO. But until then, he's a lock for OD. (If healthy.)

[Big Klu]

Doesn't matter how small the sample or if it was done with sticky stuff.

He was among the best relievers in the entire game for every inning he pitched.

That type of arm is kept-- and penciled in as an absolute-- no matter how poorly he might pitch in Spring Training.

You can revisit whether he deserves his spot around Memorial Day, IMO. But until then, he's a lock for OD. (If healthy.)

No doubt about that. Unless they sign 7-8 arms that are unquestionably better than him, he's a lock to be in the bullpen and get his chance to prove it. (Provided he's healthy.)

But he is still less than a proven commodity over the long term.