Senzel's Simple Goal: Stay On The Field

[TNRED]

Maybe he can be third base coach.

[Ron Madden]

Again

Charlie Goldsmith @CharlieG__

Speaking about the outfield as a whole yesterday, David Bell specifically mentioned, “A big key to it is having Nick Senzel back and healthy.”

Nick Senzel just homered, and he’s hitting .382 with an OPS of 1.094 this spring.


Jesse Borek @JesseABorek

With an opposite-field three-run homer in the third, Nick Senzel (1.094) becomes the 3rd Reds regular to bring his OPS over 1.094 during Cactus League play:
Jonathan India (1.072)
Tyler Stephenson (1.047)

[marcshoe]

Statistician, radio announcer, dude who plays the organ, HR fireworks guy... lots of options!

No! Keep him away from fireworks!

[Ron Madden]

Charlie Goldsmith @CharlieG__

'I’ve learned to have more patience.' Nick Senzel is ready to start fresh in 2022

[gonelong]

I have always held the belief if you get to the third "if" with your team you are probably not making the playoffs.

Senzels heath is one if. There are a few more.

[Bob Sheed]

There was a play last night... Ball hit to the gap in shallow left-center. Senzel comes charging hard for it. I'm thinking, "oh no...."

But then he let up at the last minute, let it fall for a single, and the game continued.

Little, but big picture decisions like that, to let the ball drop and live to fight another day, are what Senzel needs to do out there in CF to stay healthy.

[Old school 1983]

I have always held the belief if you get to the third "if" with your team you are probably not making the playoffs.

Senzels heath is one if. There are a few more.

To me there are 2 major Ifs. If Senzel and If the young starting pitching. Should those Ifs play in the Reds’ favor, everyone else needs to generally do what they do and the Reds will be in the playoff conversation IMO.

[Bourgeois Zee]

To me there are 2 major Ifs. If Senzel and If the young starting pitching. Should those Ifs play in the Reds’ favor, everyone else needs to generally do what they do and the Reds will be in the playoff conversation IMO.

I've got 13 win-changing "ifs":

If Senzel is healthy and productive...
If Castillo and Minor can get and stay healthy...
If Castillo has a good April and/or is his elite self when returning from injury...
If Krall doesn't trade anymore salary...
If Moustakas isn't washed...
If Santillan can handle closing duties...
If Pham has more in the tank then he's showed for the last two years...
If Votto isn't slapped by Father Time yet...
If Greene can learn before being blasted at a Homer Bailey level...
If Gutierrez or Sanmartin can continue to fool the leauge at a league average level...
If Lodolo is for real as a starter...
If Mahle can take that next step forward toward TOR SP...
If Art Warren (or another arm beyond Santillan and Cessa) proves for real in the pen...

5 of those answered positively, they'll be around .500. 8 of them, and they'll be somewhere over 80 wins and in the playoff hunt.

This assumes India and Stephenson aren't going to backslide, Aramis Garcia is a league average-ish backup backstop, and the depth of arms in the bullpen are adequate enough to be depth options. It also assumes no injuries to front-line team starters/ stars (which would be a rarity) and that Krall is allowed to acquire a modicum of help at the Trading Deadline.

[Old school 1983]

I've got 13 win-changing "ifs":

If Senzel is healthy and productive...
If Castillo and Minor can get and stay healthy...
If Castillo has a good April and/or is his elite self when returning from injury...
If Krall doesn't trade anymore salary...
If Moustakas isn't washed...
If Santillan can handle closing duties...
If Pham has more in the tank then he's showed for the last two years...
If Votto isn't slapped by Father Time yet...
If Greene can learn before being blasted at a Homer Bailey level...
If Gutierrez or Sanmartin can continue to fool the leauge at a league average level...
If Lodolo is for real as a starter...
If Mahle can take that next step forward toward TOR SP...
If Art Warren (or another arm beyond Santillan and Cessa) proves for real in the pen...

5 of those answered positively, they'll be around .500. 8 of them, and they'll be somewhere over 80 wins and in the playoff hunt.

This assumes India and Stephenson aren't going to backslide, Aramis Garcia is a league average-ish backup backstop, and the depth of arms in the bullpen are adequate enough to be depth options. It also assumes no injuries to front-line team starters/ stars (which would be a rarity) and that Krall is allowed to acquire a modicum of help at the Trading Deadline.

I was assuming Gonelong was being high level, so I was too. If you wanted to get really into the weeds, a laundry list of ifs could likely be found for most teams. Not saying your list doesn’t pose some legitimate issues, but I was being more high level and general.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I was assuming Gonelong was being high level, so I was too. If you wanted to get really into the weeds, a laundry list of ifs could likely be found for most teams. Not saying your list doesn’t pose some legitimate issues, but I was being more high level and general.

High level?

You mean differences of three or four wins?

Still have four:

-- Can Greene match Miley or Gray?
-- Can Lodolo match the other?
-- Can Senzel get healthy and produce?
-- Can the revamped corner OF (Pham/ Fraley/ Naquin) come close to matching the wins of Castellanos and Winker?

This still assumes lots and lots of things go right, including:
- The bullpen being league average or better despite being among the cheapest in the game
- Gutierrez or Sanmartin not failing completely
- Castillo and Mahle producing at levels commensurate with last year and remaining just as healthy
- India, Votto, Stephenson, and Farmer continuing to be productive
- Health just about everywhere for the entirety of the season

[Old school 1983]

High level?

You mean differences of three or four wins?

Still have four:

-- Can Greene match Miley or Gray?
-- Can Lodolo match the other?
-- Can Senzel get healthy and produce?
-- Can the revamped corner OF (Pham/ Fraley/ Naquin) come close to matching the wins of Castellanos and Winker?

This still assumes lots and lots of things go right, including:
- The bullpen being league average or better despite being among the cheapest in the game
- Gutierrez or Sanmartin not failing completely
- Castillo and Mahle producing at levels commensurate with last year and remaining just as healthy
- India, Votto, Stephenson, and Farmer continuing to be productive
- Health just about everywhere for the entirety of the season

I made a general comment. You could take any team and say what if last years performance will be repeated to any player or what if health to any player. That’s why I took it as a general high level comment. If it wasn’t construed that way, any and every team would have more than 3 what if’s and it would pretty much make the point self defeating.

But I do think the vast majority of your points tie back to the two higher level ones mentioned.

If Senzel is healthy and productive...One of my two
If Castillo and Minor can get and stay healthy...Castillo I’ll give you as a third if the injury lingers. IMO Minor just needs to be ok. The young starters stepping up is more important than minor.
If Castillo has a good April and/or is his elite self when returning from injury...duplicate of your last “if”
If Krall doesn't trade anymore salary...That depends on the teams performance. It’s not an independent if in and of itself. If my 2 higher level ifs play out in the Reds favor, I doubt this is triggered.
If Moustakas isn't washed...
If Santillan can handle closing duties...IMO this isn’t an if. He proved his ability to come out of the pen last year and in ST
If Pham has more in the tank then he's showed for the last two years...IMO he doesn’t need to. Would be great if he does but Senzel is more important to the overall production of the outfield matching last years. Shogo was an anchor on the overall performance and he’s gone.
If Votto isn't slapped by Father Time yet...goes to health and repeating last years numbers. It’s a concern for virtually every team and every player.
If Greene can learn before being blasted at a Homer Bailey level...goes to my high level young pitchers point.
If Gutierrez or Sanmartin can continue to fool the leauge at a league average level...goes to my high level pitchers point, but I don’t think they necessarily have to. Unless Greene or Lodolo implode those 2 are probably first on the Louisville shuttle.
If Lodolo is for real as a starter...goes to young pitchers point.
If Mahle can take that next step forward toward TOR SP...would be great, but IMO it’s not imperative. Just do what he did last year.
If Art Warren (or another arm beyond Santillan and Cessa) proves for real in the pen...IMO they already did last season.

Guess my point is, we aren’t far off as far as being in agreement. I have a 50,000 foot view because I read the comment I was responding to as speaking to that level. You gave a more point by point take.

Edit:
Missed Moose. It would be great if he wasn’t washed, but idk how much that matters. Reds got less than squat out of 3b last year. They have guys that can cover third better than it was last season even if Moose is toast.

[Ron Madden]

Senzel solid
Having a healthy and productive Nick Senzel in the lineup daily would be an all-around boost for the Reds after three injury-filled seasons.

For the second out in the second inning, Senzel ran in and made a nice sliding catch to take a hit away from Albies. It was originally ruled a trap play, but it was overturned on a replay challenge by Bell. To end the third inning, Senzel made a great running catch at the wall on a deep drive off the bat of Matt Olson. According to Statcast, it had a 50 percent catch probability, as Senzel ran 92 feet.

"He's playing great," Bell said. "He's anticipating, he's covering a ton of ground, making great plays. It's so nice to have Nick out on the field and he's impacting the game in all areas already."

Mark Sheldon reds.com

[UPRedsFan]

I have always held the belief if you get to the third "if" with your team you are probably not making the playoffs.

Senzels heath is one if. There are a few more.

How many ifs went right for the Giants last year?
It can happen. That’s why we watch and that’s why they play the games.

[UPRedsFan]

I would be ordering Mr Senzel to cease all diving in the outfield. Feet first sliding catches or let em fall. And no running into walls.

[GAC]

There was a play last night... Ball hit to the gap in shallow left-center. Senzel comes charging hard for it. I'm thinking, "oh no...."

But then he let up at the last minute, let it fall for a single, and the game continued.

Little, but big picture decisions like that, to let the ball drop and live to fight another day, are what Senzel needs to do out there in CF to stay healthy.

Yep. But he's still going to take the shot every once in a while.

https://www.mlb.com/reds/video/nick-...s-diving-catch

Certainly rootin' for the kid. But for one who has shown to be fragile (too date). CF is a very demanding position on one's body.