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Thread: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

  1. #346
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    For Greene and Lodolo, that time is now.
    Is it? Because it could be June or July. FWIW, I get the argument the Reds had too many SPs headed for the exit at the same time and that they need to get their top prospects established to lessen that blow. Yet they really didn't think through the plan very well. What they should have been after is moving one SP for a big haul with a piece or two they could immediately plug into the team. Then they'd have three established arms and room for Greene and Lodolo to move into the rotation.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  4. #347
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I’ve been around here for 9 or so years. In that time I can count on 0 fingers the times I remember where you have thought a pitching prospect is ready to go to the majors. If there was some sort of variance where I thought you possibly could declare a prospect ready, I’d be more apt to agree more with your take on expensive vet arms that act as security blankets. Everyone has their standards and you’re sticking to yours. I can respect that. But at a point, you have to let the prospects sink or swim. For Greene and Lodolo, that time is now. Teams with the Reds market size can’t afford 2-3 $10MM security blankets at all times. If they have the talent they’ll work. If not they won’t.
    Its because the Reds have consistently rushed them to save money. It ended up costing them a lot more money in the long run by ruining the young cheap foundation they were developing. I also think the degree of readiness is based on the situation, I think Greene is OK to come up this year, but its much more risky having him come-up in a rotation with Vlad and whichever other question mark is in the rotation alongside him. Castillo, Mahle, Gray, Miley and a Greene would have been the perfect way to develop him. Vlad as a spot starter, injury fill in (probably still would get 20 starts).

    Its not like the Reds have had a lot of solid pitching prospects to begin with and they certainly haven't had success just throwing these guys in there. I think Greene is a generational prospect, so he may be an exception (though the prospect ranking guys can't even put him in the top 20) but Lodolo, Williamson, Ashcraft are no more highly regarded than Reed, Stephenson, Finnegan and Garrett were a few years ago. (Ashcraft is more similar to Sal Romano than any of the guys who were top 100 prospects). We saw how that turned out, Reed still has the yips after being left in to take the shellings he did. To a lesser extent, the same thing happened to Garrett. Finnegan was ridden way to hard at too young an age in a rotation where he was about the only reasonable arm and he's been toast ever since. Stephenson had no control of his pitches and was an obvious fail before he even was promoted, but they did it anyway because they needed bodies. Sal Romano, who at the time was very comparable to Ashcraft, battled hard and was actually more successful than the others for a while, but he didn't have the pitch assortment to adjust to big league hitters once they caught on to him. Had he been left in AAA for a while to develop his change-up, maybe it would have been different, but he came to the big leagues and stopped throwing it. (I actually doubt more time would have helped much, he still doesn't have a change-up).

    So you want a timeline, Greene now, Lodolo at the All Star break, Williamson or Ashcraft next opening day (I'm still guessing Ashcraft ends up in the bullpen and will thrive there). 2023 Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo, Williamson with Vlad as the sixth starter.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  6. #348
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is it? Because it could be June or July. FWIW, I get the argument the Reds had too many SPs headed for the exit at the same time and that they need to get their top prospects established to lessen that blow. Yet they really didn't think through the plan very well. What they should have been after is moving one SP for a big haul with a piece or two they could immediately plug into the team. Then they'd have three established arms and room for Greene and Lodolo to move into the rotation.
    They have 3 arms right now. Mahle, Castillo and minor. Injuries happen. Vlad was pretty decent. Seems like Santillian is being considered. They have the arms here already. While I do agree with your big haul theory, that’s not where we are at currently. I’d rather see these guys take their first major league lumps than watch Godley or Lively start.

  7. #349
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    They have 3 arms right now. Mahle, Castillo and minor. Injuries happen. Vlad was pretty decent. Seems like Santillian is being considered. They have the arms here already. While I do agree with your big haul theory, that’s not where we are at currently. I’d rather see these guys take their first major league lumps than watch Godley or Lively start.
    We really disagree about Minor compared to Miley and Gray. Minor is more Vlad than any of the others and the fly balls he gives up are going to haunt him in GABP.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  8. #350
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    They have 3 arms right now. Mahle, Castillo and minor. Injuries happen. Vlad was pretty decent. Seems like Santillian is being considered. They have the arms here already. While I do agree with your big haul theory, that’s not where we are at currently. I’d rather see these guys take their first major league lumps than watch Godley or Lively start.
    - Minor is a shoddy substitute, IMO.

    - No problem with Vlad being a bridge starter if one or both Greene/Lodolo take a little more time.

    - Santillan really should be kept in the bullpen.

    - I'd make all Greene/Lodolo decisions based on Greene/Lodolo and not on team factors. The Reds probably won't do that, though they probably will look to get some service time manipulation out of the early part of the season.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  9. #351
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Its because the Reds have consistently rushed them to save money. It ended up costing them a lot more money in the long run by ruining the young cheap foundation they were developing. I also think the degree of readiness is based on the situation, I think Greene is OK to come up this year, but its much more risky having him come-up in a rotation with Vlad and whichever other question mark is in the rotation alongside him. Castillo, Mahle, Gray, Miley and a Greene would have been the perfect way to develop him. Vlad as a spot starter, injury fill in (probably still would get 20 starts).

    Its not like the Reds have had a lot of solid pitching prospects to begin with and they certainly haven't had success just throwing these guys in there. I think Greene is a generational prospect, so he may be an exception (though the prospect ranking guys can't even put him in the top 20) but Lodolo, Williamson, Ashcraft are no more highly regarded than Reed, Stephenson, Finnegan and Garrett were a few years ago. (Ashcraft is more similar to Sal Romano than any of the guys who were top 100 prospects). We saw how that turned out, Reed still has the yips after being left in to take the shellings he did. To a lesser extent, the same thing happened to Garrett. Finnegan was ridden way to hard at too young an age in a rotation where he was about the only reasonable arm and he's been toast ever since. Stephenson had no control of his pitches and was an obvious fail before he even was promoted, but they did it anyway because they needed bodies. Sal Romano, who at the time was very comparable to Ashcraft, battled hard and was actually more successful than the others for a while, but he didn't have the pitch assortment to adjust to big league hitters once they caught on to him. Had he been left in AAA for a while to develop his change-up, maybe it would have been different, but he came to the big leagues and stopped throwing it. (I actually doubt more time would have helped much, he still doesn't have a change-up).

    So you want a timeline, Greene now, Lodolo at the All Star break, Williamson or Ashcraft next opening day (I'm still guessing Ashcraft ends up in the bullpen and will thrive there). 2023 Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo, Williamson with Vlad as the sixth starter.
    A lot of the guys that get mentioned as rushed, I think really weren’t as good as we thought to start with. I think the only guy that might have been rushed and abused was Reed.

    After some more thought, this is my rotation if I were Bell

    Mahle
    Vlad
    Santillian
    Lodolo
    Greene

    As Castillo and Minor come back, take guys out based upon performance. Low man on the totem pole goes to the Pen or AAA. Pitch well you stay. If you don’t you go.

  10. #352
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    If the young guys seem able to handle MLB hitters, let ‘em loose.

    They don’t need to gestate in AAA under a “one-size-fits-all” view of development.

    Each guy is different, the Reds have some real good arms, they’ll all need a break-in period anyway.

    Watch ST, and if the coaches think they can handle it, go for it.

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  12. #353
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    - Minor is a shoddy substitute, IMO.

    - No problem with Vlad being a bridge starter if one or both Greene/Lodolo take a little more time.

    - Santillan really should be kept in the bullpen.

    - I'd make all Greene/Lodolo decisions based on Greene/Lodolo and not on team factors. The Reds probably won't do that, though they probably will look to get some service time manipulation out of the early part of the season.
    Minor is shoddy most likely. But he’s the quincentennial thing that the put a vet in the rotation crowd wants. Cheap. Short term. Can eat innings. Maybe he’ll have a flashback to the year he was good.

    Agreed on Santillian. But he’s looked sharp this spring. Give him a start. If he melts down back to the pen with him. If not, you may have found a nice rotation piece.

    Give Vlad a shot to establish himself as a 4/5 starter type. A cheap one of those can go a long way in allowing the team to spend elsewhere.

    Agreed on Greene and Lodolo should be setting their own bar. Lodolo is earning a spot on the the opening day roster IMO. Greene is right there with him. Let see how it goes today i his start to determine if that path continues.

    As an extra point. Unless they trade Castillo or Mahle. There’s no need for the Godley’s or Lively’s of the world to see any rotation time until the kids hit inning limits.

  13. #354
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    One thing to remember is that every team this April is going to be using mountains of pitchers, especially with the expanded rosters, and almost no starters are going 5+ inning in this first month. The shorten spring means that April is going to be more like the end of spring training for pitchers, as they work on getting their strength back up.

    We need to move away from thinking of a rotation of 5 starters and a pen of relievers and instead think of a staff of at least 15 pitchers, all picking up innings where they can. There is no reason why Greene and Lodolo and maybe even Ashcraft can’t be a part of those 15 pitchers. They can be judged on their performance and sent down if they aren’t up to pitching in the bigs yet. That shouldn’t hurt their development, it might even help it.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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  15. #355
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Btw. Pham signing official.

  16. #356
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    They have done so
    I think Greene may have, but I definitely have no idea about Lodolo.

  17. #357
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think Greene may have, but I definitely have no idea about Lodolo.
    The Reds probably have a better idea on Lodolo than you or I. You will probably say “ha, the Reds have an idea?!?l” here, but I think they’ve been pretty spot on with their young arms the last 5-6 years with regard to when they are ready for the bigs. They’ve already said Lodolo is competing for a spot in the rotation this spring. That means they think he’s ready.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  18. #358
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Agreed on Santillian. But he’s looked sharp this spring. Give him a start. If he melts down back to the pen with him. If not, you may have found a nice rotation piece.
    Santillan looks sharp because he always looks sharp in short stints on the mound. That's why he's a reliever. He will look less sharp if they try to make him throw ~100 pitches, and then his stuff/control becomes marginal. I'd just like them to not have to relearn lessons from previous years. Plus, a rational bullpen would help a lot in the early portions of this hastily arranged season.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  20. #359
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think Greene may have, but I definitely have no idea about Lodolo.
    Watched any spring games?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Santillan looks sharp because he always looks sharp in short stints on the mound. That's why he's a reliever. He will look less sharp if they try to make him throw ~100 pitches, and then his stuff/control becomes marginal. I'd just like them to not have to relearn lessons from previous years. Plus, a rational bullpen would help a lot in the early portions of this hastily arranged season.
    Not disagreeing with you. Put San Martin in his rotation spot and put Santillian in the pen. I think he’d do great there.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 03-26-2022 at 01:35 PM.

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  22. #360
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    Re: Reds signing Tommy Pham pending physical

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Watched any spring games?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Not disagreeing with you. Put San Martin in his rotation spot and put Santillian in the pen. I think he’s do great there.
    So now 10 spring innings is “ready?”


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