Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
So Shaedon Sharpe's almost certainly gone. His "camp" has repeatedly professed that they're dedicated to playing a year in Kentucky, but if he's a top five pick, he has to go. (Really questioning why Calipari didn't play that top five pick at all last season, but that ship sailed.) There's too much money at stake-- even with the promise of somewhere around a million (or perhaps more) in NIL money.
TyTy Washington probably is too. He's been projected as a one-and-done since signing, basically. That said, his second half didn't do him many favors in terms of draft position. Right now, Washington's 16th in the NBA Draft Room mock draft. He's 10th in NBC Sports mock up and 11th in NBA Draft.net. If he has a lottery pick promise, it makes sense for Washington to bolt.
Brooks wants to go, I'm sure. Were I he, I'd put my name in the draft and hope to get a second round promise. If not, I'd really consider transferring to a place to be the primary scorer rather than play as a piece in Kentucky. That might force him into a more aggressive frame of mind (and much better numbers). Regardless, I think he's done at UK too.
Sahvir Wheeler is probably in the same spot. He wants to go make money, but isn't going to be drafted. Were he to return, I'm guessing he has a starting spot sewn up. Wheeler might be thinking about playing overseas, but the Ukraine War might limit his opportunities a bit. No Russian teams means those teams can be a bit more choosy, and a waterbug who can't shoot very well and turns it over too much might not be a great gamble. I'm guessing he stays.
CJ Fredrick comes back healthy, and he's a sneaky good add. (They certainly could have used him last season. Another guy who was probably ready to play by the end of the year that Calipari decided against using because *reasons*.) He's a deadeye shooter and underrated tertiary ball handler. As a combo guard, he's going to be a good wing shooter and will be fine as a defender. (He'll be asked to defend the third-best shooter on other teams, but Kentucky will almost assuredly switch everything.) Like that he knows the system (such as it is) and would be a veteran player. I'd pencil him in as a starter in Washington's spot, but Calipari will probably push him to a 6th man role.
Damion Collins is staying. He's a condor. Kid needs to get in the weight room. With minutes and girth, he'll be a shot-blocking defensive force capable of shooting out to 15 feet. If he slacks off over the summer, he's still a solid contributor capable of 15 - 25 mpg off the bench. I really like him as a center in a five-out offense, but Calipari just embraced the four-out offense last year, so asking him to go five-out seems like a step too far. As a PF, he can play off Tshiebwe defensively, for sure. Offensively, both would have to really embrace shooting from distance.
If Collins is the starting PF, that puts Jacob Toppin in a bit of a pickle. He's ready to showcase his skills now. He just needs to opportunity, and with transfer rules what they are, he can absolutely find that just about anywhere. If everybody comes back, Toppin will again play second or third fiddle in the frontcourt. If Brooks leaves, Toppin becomes an erstwhile starter-- unless Collins makes the sophomore leap. If Tshiebwe comes back, I think Toppin leaves for greener pastures. If Tshiebwe leaves, I think Toppin and Collins tag-team the frontcourt as PF on the floor at the same time. (That athleticism would be a sight to behold.)
Bryce Hopkins is probably gone. He got stuck behind better, veteran players last year and couldn't shed enough weight to play the wing. If he does come back, he's another PF, but one with a solid three-point stroke and ball handling ability. For Calipari, that means he's a small forward. (Sigh.) That said, I'm guessing he's gone-- too much playing time available elsewhere.
Lance Ware is probably back-- unless he wants to play a bunch. A move to a lesser program might be in the offing. Kid might end up a double-double at Long Beach State or a place of that ilk. That's got to be enticing.
So the big decision is Tshiebwe's. He's the Player of the Year and a modern-day Wes Unseld. Right now, he's a mid-2nd rounder. That would seem to make his decision quite easy: stick around, reap the benefits of the NIL, earn a million bucks or so, and try to extend your range/ show off your ball handling. (Calipari's capable of doing just that with a big, fwiw. PJ Washington and Terrence Jones both came back and showed specific skills.) His issue, however, is one of opportunity and compliance. As an immigrant, he can't earn as much as a naturalized citizen. I'm guessing he still stays, and they find a way to get him paid. A second POTY award might well be enough to get him first round money next year. (Or at least another All-American season.)
Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston are probably going to start, Wallace at the PG spot and Livingston at the wing. Starting two freshmen would seem to be good news for Calipari and company-- that's far less than is normal. Too, with multiple guys coming back, they should have a solid nucleus of experience on which to draw. Both kids have shown a penchant for defense. That bodes well for early playing time. They're also big. Wallace is 6'4" and Livingston is 6'6".
If I had to guess, then, the 2022-2023 Kentucky roster before transfer additions would be:
C Tshiebwe/ Ware
PF Collins/ Toppin
SF Livingston
2G Wallace/ Fredrick
PG Wheeler
They're going to need some backup bodies, particularly in the backcourt. At least three of them, IMO.