Reds Offense 2022

[InsaneinthBrame]

I am just mystified with the expectations for Senzel. If he had been a fifth round pic would anyone even care? I can’t remember but has he even had one healthy season since he has been in the organization? What was his health like in college? I remember back about 2017 and everyone here was sky high on him. It was like just wait until he gets to the Biggs and all of the Red’s problems are solved. He will be an all star. In the short stints he has been healthy he looks like a good batter but I just don’t see the greatness. What am I missing?

I never got the big hype on Senzel especially after a couple of years in the minors or when they moved him to CF. (at that point started to remind me more of Stubbs in overall value) BTW the thing most people here under appreciated valued Stubbs (8.2 fwar in 3+ seasons) Reds fans would go nuts if Senzel can do 2 fwar a year

[LeatherPants]

I never got the big hype on Senzel especially after a couple of years in the minors or when they moved him to CF. (at that point started to remind me more of Stubbs in overall value) BTW the thing most people here under appreciated valued Stubbs (8.2 fwar in 3+ seasons) Reds fans would go nuts if Senzel can do 2 fwar a year

The hype about Senzel shouldn't be surprising as he had a line of .311/.385/.505 in +1,000 minor league plate appearances. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy. It happens.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I never got the big hype on Senzel especially after a couple of years in the minors or when they moved him to CF. (at that point started to remind me more of Stubbs in overall value) BTW the thing most people here under appreciated valued Stubbs (8.2 fwar in 3+ seasons) Reds fans would go nuts if Senzel can do 2 fwar a year

If Senzel plays a full season, his defense is going to be good, IMO. If he's healthy, he'll also put up good speed scores (especially now that Bell and company are preaching aggressiveness on the basepaths and at the margins). I'm a believer, but I see his healthy floor as 1.5 bWAR this season.

If he can find some of that missing power, he could be well north of that.

[InsaneinthBrame]

If Senzel plays a full season, his defense is going to be good, IMO. If he's healthy, he'll also put up good speed scores (especially now that Bell and company are preaching aggressiveness on the basepaths and at the margins). I'm a believer, but I see his healthy floor as 1.5 bWAR this season.

If he can find some of that missing power, he could be well north of that.

He may have speed but is bad on the basepaths as shown by his 2 sb and 5 cs last year. He has had a negative baserunning score every year in majors. His defense is not good in centerfield He may get better.
He is negative on basepaths and defense when you look at his mlb bwar.
He has a -.5 bwar in 162 games of MLB and he was healthy for most of his rookie year and could only post .1 bwar

[Bourgeois Zee]

His defense is above average in CF. He's among the fastest players in baseball-- I assume he'll get better on the basepaths with more experience.

Both his glove and his speed are, IMO, scouting strengths, if not production strengths.

That's why they bring up prospects and let them play.

[InsaneinthBrame]

The hype about Senzel shouldn't be surprising as he had a line of .311/.385/.505 in +1,000 minor league plate appearances. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy. It happens.

That is one of the mistakes of just looking at OPS in the minors without looking at the numbers that create that ops. Senzel was a babip darling that ops was sustained by a .370 babip which he was not going to do in the majors. Dropping that down to 310 cuts about .04 off all those numbers .270/.345/.465 is what his non luck ops in minors would be which paints a way different picture

This is the same reason why India surprised people last year. He had real good underlying numbers that project better to major league production.

[Bourgeois Zee]

That is one of the mistakes of just looking at OPS in the minors without looking at the numbers that create that ops. Senzel was a babip darling that ops was sustained by a .370 babip which he was not going to do in the majors. Dropping that down to 310 cuts about .04 off all those numbers .270/.345/.465 is what his non luck ops in minors would be which paints a way different picture

This is the same reason why India surprised people last year. He had real good underlying numbers that project better to major league production.

Why would you cut down Senzel's minor league BABiP to .310? He has elite speed and an above average hit tool.

The reason Senzel's MLB numbers are poor (aside from the general paucity of them) is that his power has largely dried up. A career Iso of .149 just doesn't get the job done. Worse, he's going the wrong way-- last season, his Iso was a putrid .063.

Just based on the eye test, I suspect that corrects quite a bit if he remains healthy. If he can correct that to minor league numbers (near .200 from 2016 - 2018), he'll be an above average regular. If it's somewhere in the middle, he'll be Drew Stubbs. There is (slight) reason for optimism envinced on his Spring Training numbers (.357/ .438/ .464/ .902).

[RedsManRick]

That is one of the mistakes of just looking at OPS in the minors without looking at the numbers that create that ops. Senzel was a babip darling that ops was sustained by a .370 babip which he was not going to do in the majors. Dropping that down to 310 cuts about .04 off all those numbers .270/.345/.465 is what his non luck ops in minors would be which paints a way different picture

This is the same reason why India surprised people last year. He had real good underlying numbers that project better to major league production.

But a good defensive CF who puts up that .800+ OPS slash line is an All-Star caliber player. I don't think anybody expected him to be the next face of the franchise. But there was justified hope that could be an important part of the next winning core.

[TeamSelig]

Senzel is a good player when healthy, just hasn’t been healthy at all.

[RustyJ]

Senzel is a good player when healthy, just hasn’t been healthy at all.

He’s had a weird 163 game career, but it’s also pretty Kyle Farmer-y so far. I’d say it’s likely he’s a lot better than what he’s shown, but I’d also like to see it at this point.

[InsaneinthBrame]

But a good defensive CF who puts up that .800+ OPS slash line is an All-Star caliber player. I don't think anybody expected him to be the next face of the franchise. But there was justified hope that could be an important part of the next winning core.

That is a minor leagues slash line. You figure the majors pitching is better so a few less walks and a few more strikeout so you get what Senzel did in his rookie year .742 ops. I think he should show more pop than rookie year he is likely .760-780 ops bat. His problem is being right handed and he does not hit righties well because of that I think he will likely be platooned but for now I think the Reds will play him.

He has long way to go to be a good CFer.

BTW he has not showed an elite hit tool in the minors. He did in college but reports have never adjusted when he has seen better pitching Winker had elite hit tool in minors.

I have seen enough Guys like Redus, Householder, Francisco, Hamilton, Larson have big numbers in the minors to realize when those numbers are a mirage. Senzel seems like a middle of the road player.

[MoneyInTheBank]

That is a minor leagues slash line. You figure the majors pitching is better so a few less walks and a few more strikeout so you get what Senzel did in his rookie year .742 ops. I think he should show more pop than rookie year he is likely .760-780 ops bat. His problem is being right handed and he does not hit righties well because of that I think he will likely be platooned but for now I think the Reds will play him.

He has long way to go to be a good CFer.

BTW he has not showed an elite hit tool in the minors. He did in college but reports have never adjusted when he has seen better pitching Winker had elite hit tool in minors.

I have seen enough Guys like Redus, Householder, Francisco, Hamilton, Larson have big numbers in the minors to realize when those numbers are a mirage. Senzel seems like a middle of the road player.

But your hypothesis of a high BABIP in the minors being luck just doesn't track. Having a high BABIP across multiple seasons also can mean you're just good.

[Ron Madden]

Jesse Borek
@JesseABorek

With an opposite-field three-run homer in the third, Nick Senzel (1.094) becomes the 3rd #Reds regular to bring his OPS over 1.000 during Cactus League play:
Jonathan India (1.072)
Tyler Stephenson (1.047)

[TNRED]

The hype about Senzel shouldn't be surprising as he had a line of .311/.385/.505 in +1,000 minor league plate appearances. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy. It happens.

Maybe they should send him back to the minors where he is much more successful.

[GADawg]

speaking of the offense even though i'm not a big DH guy I have to admit to being a little excited to see some guys get in some more ab's. Obviously these guys (Moose, Aquino, Naquin, etc..) should be able to stay sharp...you know if they ever sharpen up to begin with. I still feel like the NL teams will eventually learn to bring on a more regular DH in the future instead of rotating guys through. I can't help but wonder how often our DH will hit ninth.