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Thread: Reds Offense 2022

  1. #61
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by TNRED View Post
    Considering past history, I think it’s pretty foolish to bank on Senzel in any shape form or fashion. I have also been troubled troubled by the free passes given to this team in April and May. People use excuses like slow start and cold weather and small sample size . A game in April carries as much weight as one in September. The team getting hot in July doesn’t seem very important when they are 15 games under .500.
    There’s a difference between giving excuses for excuses sake. The cold weather thing always drives me nuts. You’re a team in a cold weather city. As far as slow starts, it drives me nuts the Reds seemingly come out of the gate cold a lot of years. Steps need to be taken to fix that. However, which team where their ace starter is out and 3-4 starting positions are filled with 2nd and 3rd options have a prayer against LA in LA? The Reds could have come into LA fully healthy and rolling and no one would have been shocked if they got swept.

    So yeah. The cold weather excuses and slow start stuff drives me nuts. But it’s a huge task to ask a heavily depleted team to go into LA and not get their brains beat in. If the Reds only had a guy or two dinged up, IMO it’s be an excuse. Injuries happen. The Reds have had multiple pieces out as well as the second options to those pieces. It’s a real bummer.


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  3. #62
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    Senzel has a sub .700 ops in a full season's worth of ab's so far in his career. He is 2-17 so far this year. To say his health is the key to the team being good is something I can't wrap my head around. This is a player who has yet to show he can hit major league pitching. Anything positive Senzel gives the team should be looked at as a bonus and not something that's counted on.
    Cobbling together a sample size from smaller injured campaigns doesn’t show full potential IMO. But, no one with a straight face can say that he isn’t a better option than Aquino. That he isn’t a better option defensively than Naquin in CF. Likely Fraley too. His health provides that and and keeps Aquino and Fraley from being over exposed to unfavorable matchups.

  4. #63
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Cobbling together a sample size from smaller injured campaigns doesn’t show full potential IMO. But, no one with a straight face can say that he isn’t a better option than Aquino. That he isn’t a better option defensively than Naquin in CF. Likely Fraley too. His health provides that and and keeps Aquino and Fraley from being over exposed to unfavorable matchups.
    The fact that I have to cobble together small sample sizes from injury riddled campaigns is another reason why Senzel shouldn't be counted on as a key piece. BEing better than Aquino doesn't mean he's a good MLB player. I'm pretty sure you could find a handful of people in the stands that could make better contact than Aquino. This should be the last chance Senzel gets in Cincy to show he's an everyday player. It's put up or shut up time for him in 2022 because you can't keep going into seasons counting on a guy who never plays and is below mediocre when he does play to be a starter. Barrero and Freidl can play CF, and I would image McLain can as well.

  5. #64
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    That’s why I said Senzels health was a key to the team being good. If he’s out you either get Naquin playing out of position in CF like last year or the Aquino K show like we have seen this year. That and Fraley being overexposed to LH pitching. The team couldn’t stomach a loss to Votto or Pham. I get that. At 3b though, it needs to be Moran and Drury since they seem to stubbornly refuse to give Lopez any chances.

    I also get depth is a concern, but it’s not only the starters that went down. It was the depth too. Barerro, Schrock, Solano. The Reds are playing with option 3 at some positions. Most teams can’t cover that deep.

    The results of it all over been absolutely brutal, but people need to stop acting like this is the 1982 team. What we just watched was the primary World Series favorite in the NL beat up on a slumping and depleted Reds team. It really really stinks, but I don’t think it’s indicative of the actual ability level of the team even if they are a little dinged up.
    I'm more optimistic about the Reds not having to face the Dodgers day after day thats for sure. I struggle to argue with you too much on the health of this team, because again, I agree completely that if healthy this team isn't nearly as bad as their current record suggests. My concern has way more to do with their ability to stay healthy. Schrock is out for an extended period, Barerro has a wrist injury. Reports seem to be that his are more a pain threshold issue, but historically wrist issues tend to linger. Solano I dont remember seeing a recent update so I'm not sure what the situation is, but often hamstrings + no news isnt great. Without even talk of a rehab stint yet it's possible even Barerro beats him back to the lineup.

    For a team that said India could be back Saturday, now is debating an IL trip. Senzel still is not back, etc. I've just grown pessimistic on the depth of this team. Seems as if every injury ends up being worst case scenario from how it was originally diagnosed. Plus an early bad start that doesn't get corrected quick is going to see all these one year deals moved mid year anyways.

    I'm not complete doom and gloom for this year so far, but with every L right now it seems less and less likely of flirting with .500 ball around the break where the Reds may actually have an opportunity to be entertaining in August/September with the expanded playoffs. I'll still get some joy out of seeing the young pitching, even the bullpen guys develop, but after the last couple years and sitting through several rebuilding years prior its really hard to be emotionally involved with a team that has been projected as a 4th/5th place division finisher preseason, starting out with a .200 winning percentage, and Phil Castellini basically giving me a kick in twins to top it off. For those reasons I'm probably more optimistic on the Reds than I show right now, but I'm almost mentally just preparing myself for the letdown, even in a year where expectations arent all that high to begin with.

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  7. #65
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    The fact that I have to cobble together small sample sizes from injury riddled campaigns is another reason why Senzel shouldn't be counted on as a key piece. BEing better than Aquino doesn't mean he's a good MLB player. I'm pretty sure you could find a handful of people in the stands that could make better contact than Aquino. This should be the last chance Senzel gets in Cincy to show he's an everyday player. It's put up or shut up time for him in 2022 because you can't keep going into seasons counting on a guy who never plays and is below mediocre when he does play to be a starter. Barrero and Freidl can play CF, and I would image McLain can as well.
    The Reds have serious draft and developmental capital invested in Senzel. He has very high end potential despite the injury concerns. I agree you can’t keep going into seasons expecting him to be your guy. IMO this year should be the final chance to show he can stay on the field. Barerro is also out, but he needs to be playing SS when he comes back. He offers way more potential value and skill there. Senzel has tons of more potential than Friedl, even though I like the guy a lot. Senzel needs that shot. If he stays out and Friedl Wally Pipps him, that’s another story.

  8. #66
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne Krivsky View Post
    I'm more optimistic about the Reds not having to face the Dodgers day after day thats for sure. I struggle to argue with you too much on the health of this team, because again, I agree completely that if healthy this team isn't nearly as bad as their current record suggests. My concern has way more to do with their ability to stay healthy. Schrock is out for an extended period, Barerro has a wrist injury. Reports seem to be that his are more a pain threshold issue, but historically wrist issues tend to linger. Solano I dont remember seeing a recent update so I'm not sure what the situation is, but often hamstrings + no news isnt great. Without even talk of a rehab stint yet it's possible even Barerro beats him back to the lineup.

    For a team that said India could be back Saturday, now is debating an IL trip. Senzel still is not back, etc. I've just grown pessimistic on the depth of this team. Seems as if every injury ends up being worst case scenario from how it was originally diagnosed. Plus an early bad start that doesn't get corrected quick is going to see all these one year deals moved mid year anyways.

    I'm not complete doom and gloom for this year so far, but with every L right now it seems less and less likely of flirting with .500 ball around the break where the Reds may actually have an opportunity to be entertaining in August/September with the expanded playoffs. I'll still get some joy out of seeing the young pitching, even the bullpen guys develop, but after the last couple years and sitting through several rebuilding years prior its really hard to be emotionally involved with a team that has been projected as a 4th/5th place division finisher preseason, starting out with a .200 winning percentage, and Phil Castellini basically giving me a kick in twins to top it off. For those reasons I'm probably more optimistic on the Reds than I show right now, but I'm almost mentally just preparing myself for the letdown, even in a year where expectations arent all that high to begin with.
    There’s really nothing to argue with there.

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  10. #67
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    I believe the offense will get better when we get guys back from the IL. Right now we are at the mercy of LHP, it's not getting any easier having to face LHP Sean Manaea tonight.

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  12. #68
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Dodgers LH the crap out of the Reds who have 4 RH's on the IL, just brutal.

    That said, they still suck so far against RH's. But the BABIP is .209 so it has to get better, getting back home will always help too. Still less than 1/10th of the season, have to think they'll improve above a deadball team OPS (Reds worse was 1908 .582, problem is the league was .603)

    Code:
    Split			Year		G	PA	GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
    vs RH Starter		2022		70	247	63	221	25	39	10	0	6	24	4	1	20	58	.177	.256	.303	.559	67	.209	107	62	
    vs RHP			2022		9	215		193	19	35	9	0	4	19	2	1	18	59	.181	.257	.290	.547	56	.237	103	59
    vs LHP			2022		9	136		123	15	22	3	0	3	14	2	1	8	39	.179	.250	.276	.526	34	.232	95	55
    vs RHP as RHB		2022		9	123		113	12	21	5	0	3	12	2	0	7	35	.186	.246	.310	.556	35	.240	106	64	
    vs LH Starter		2022		30	104	27	95	9	18	2	0	1	9	0	1	6	40	.190	.250	.242	.492	23	.309	83	45	
    vs RHP as LHB		2022		9	92		80	7	14	4	0	1	7	0	1	11	24	.175	.272	.263	.534	21	.232	99	52	
    vs LHP as RHB		2022		9	81		70	10	14	2	0	2	9	1	0	8	18	.200	.296	.314	.611	22	.235	127	72	
    vs LHP as LHB		2022		9	55		53	5	8	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	21	.151	.182	.226	.408	12	.226	51	42

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  14. #69
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by CrosleyVet View Post
    Keep battling, and it’ll break through at some point,”

    Bell's mantra year after year, they never break through however.
    It really does reflect his philosophy. You have an idea or a strategy, you try it, it doesn't work, and so the solution is to keep trying it until it does work (even though it never actually does).

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    The Reds have serious draft and developmental capital invested in Senzel. He has very high end potential despite the injury concerns. I agree you can’t keep going into seasons expecting him to be your guy. IMO this year should be the final chance to show he can stay on the field. Barerro is also out, but he needs to be playing SS when he comes back. He offers way more potential value and skill there. Senzel has tons of more potential than Friedl, even though I like the guy a lot. Senzel needs that shot. If he stays out and Friedl Wally Pipps him, that’s another story.
    If Nick Senzel stays on the field the whole year, it will look to me like he used up his anomaly on a season that it makes no difference. If he stays on the field, all it proves is he can play a full season once every 4 years. Does anybody really think that if Senzel somehow stays on the field for one whole season, that means his history of being injury prone is fixed? I sure don't.

  16. #71
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by foster15 View Post
    If Nick Senzel stays on the field the whole year, it will look to me like he used up his anomaly on a season that it makes no difference. If he stays on the field, all it proves is he can play a full season once every 4 years. Does anybody really think that if Senzel somehow stays on the field for one whole season, that means his history of being injury prone is fixed? I sure don't.
    If he stays on the field 120+ games, you really gotta think about trading him at peak value

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  18. #72
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Meanwhile across baseball yesterday

    https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/...-home-runs-go?

    On Sunday, 28 of the 30 teams played — the Tigers-Royals game was rained out. And in the 14 games played, there were exactly 15 home runs hit.

    That’s all. Fifteen home runs in 14 games, according to young baseball statistician and author Jeremy Frank, is the fewest since 2014, when baseball was very different from the past few seasons. And it’s the fewest for an April day since 1993, which is like 500 years ago in baseball terms.

    So what’s the problem? I mean, we all know that the home run thing got out of control, particularly in 2019, when apparently even I hit 27 homers*, and you can say that maybe it’s a good thing to see some balance restored to the game. I’ve long believed that home runs are better as uncommon events; when everyone’s doing it all the time, the homer loses so much of its specialness.

    So what’s the problem?

    Well, the problem is that if this is a real trend — teams are averaging fewer than one home run per game, and that hasn’t happened since the aforementioned 2014 season — hitters are basically helpless. Home runs (since 2014) have masked the absolute cratering of offense in baseball. Batting averages, hits, triples, these are all at historic lows. Strikeouts, as everybody knows, are at historic highs.

    And while the deluge of home runs may have become repetitive, they’re just about the only thing that has kept baseball from going back to 1968, when so few runs scored that the powers-that-be in baseball freaked out and just started changing stuff — OK, uh, let’s lower the mound, and uh, make the strike zone smaller, and, uh, maybe the pitcher shouldn’t hit anymore? And, uh, let’s crack down on those spitballs. Right? And, um, maybe we should call more balks? And, any other ideas out there?

    In 1968, batters hit .237 — the lowest batting average on record.

    This year — and again, it’s SUPER early, so let’s not jump to any conclusions — batters are hitting .233. That is not out of line from the last few seasons. Last year, batters hit .244, which was the lowest average since, you guessed it, 1968.

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  20. #73
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022


    Charlie Goldsmith
    @CharlieG__

    When the Reds return home on Friday to play the Cardinals, they’ll face left-handed starter Steven Matz.

    The run of left-handed starters on the Reds schedule continues.

    Last 2 games and next 3 games

    Hunter Greene vs. LHP Julio Urias
    Tyler Mahle vs. LHP Andrew Heaney
    Nick Lodolo vs. Padres LHP Sean Manea
    Reiver Sanmartin vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
    Vladimir Gutierrez vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

    Last edited by Ron Madden; 04-18-2022 at 02:30 PM.

  21. #74
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    If a fighter leads with his right and leaves his left open he's gonna keep getting popped.

  22. #75
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    For the sixth straight game the Reds failed to score more than three runs. There were plenty of opportunities. The Reds left eight runners on base and hit 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position.

    It was untimely hitting, yet still an improvement for the slumping offense. The Reds totaled 57 hits during their first 10 games of the season, the lowest total through 10 games in franchise history, according to High Heat Stats.

    It was the Reds’ seventh consecutive loss, which matches their longest losing streak from last season.

    "We're facing really good pitching right now, you can't disregard that," Pham said. "One thing about good pitching, you have to do your best job not making it easier for them. As a team, we could definitely do a little bit better job at that, getting pitchers in the strike zone. It's easier said than done. These guys are good for a reason."
    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...s-answers-boos loss/7360945001
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 04-19-2022 at 05:53 AM.


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