Nick Lodolo

[757690]

You'll have to try to sell that line on a site not populated by people who weren't talking about the price of burning Mahle's extra service year when they were doing it.

Around that time there was, Finnegan, Reed, Lamb, Garrett, Lorenzen, Cingrani, Romano, Stephenson, and others you would have to manipulate if you were to justify manipulating Mahle. I am sure there was talk about manipulating the time of many of them too.

Looking back, it's easy to say "I told you so" on the one player who may be productive in this sixth season. But at that time,it was anyone's guess who it may be.

[M2]

Around that time there was, Finnegan, Reed, Lamb, Garrett, Lorenzen, Cingrani, Romano, Stephenson, and others you would have to manipulate if you were to justify manipulating Mahle. I am sure there was talk about manipulating the time of many of them too.

Looking back, it's easy to say "I told you so" on the one player who may be productive in this sixth season. But at that time,it was anyone's guess who it may be.

No, there were those of us who thought Mahle profiled as a keeper. I don't recall any particular service time discussions around those others (mostly because they burst into flames so quickly there wasn't much to discuss). We did discuss Mahle's extra service year when the Reds were burning it. So try that hindsight line somewhere else. There was plenty of foresight around here.

[kaldaniels]

No, there were those of us who thought Mahle profiled as a keeper. I don't recall any particular service time discussions around those others (mostly because they burst into flames so quickly there wasn't much to discuss). We did discuss Mahle's extra service year when the Reds were burning it. So try that hindsight line somewhere else. There was plenty of foresight around here.

^^^ This man was high on Mahle from the beginning and I recall him opening my eyes to Tyler.

[RedTeamGo!]

Lodolo is 24 years old. If he were 21 years old, yeah, manipulate his service time. I don’t really care about the extra year. Get him up here and start letting him learn at mlb level. If he proves good and his arm holds up offer him an extension.

[757690]

No, there were those of us who thought Mahle profiled as a keeper. I don't recall any particular service time discussions around those others (mostly because they burst into flames so quickly there wasn't much to discuss). We did discuss Mahle's extra service year when the Reds were burning it. So try that hindsight line somewhere else. There was plenty of foresight around here.

If you were projecting that out of that group, Mahle would be the one to last until his sixth season (which he hasn't yet) then you deserve praise for your Nostradamus skills, because at the time he profiled way behind most of them. From a pure objective perspective, if you wanted to manipulate Mahle's time, you would have to have manipulated most of those other young pitcher's time.

Btw, there absolutely was talk of manipulating Garrett's and Stephenson's time, at the very least. The Reds actually did try to manipulate Garrett's time and it failed miserably.

[Wonderful Monds]

By the time Mahle came up, most of those guys were already clearly garbage or obviously relievers.

Mahle was widely viewed as being a potential #2 guy, the only one of those pitchers who looked like they might have that ceiling by then were Finnegan and maybe Garrett but he hit the pen pretty quick too. Reed was quickly looking overwhelmed, Romano was never more than a BOR hopeful, Lorenzen was firmly a reliever, I don’t even remember Lamb being around still by then. Cingrani either for that matter, who had been a reliever for years at that point (and not a particularly great one.)

Mahle was heads above everyone except maybe 1 or 2 those dudes by the time he got called up. It was pretty clear.

[M2]

^^^ This man was high on Mahle from the beginning and I recall him opening my eyes to Tyler.

I don't want to make it about me, because I was hardly the only person on this board who thought Mahle was a guy whose service time you didn't want fritter away. We had ongoing discussions on that topic in early 2018. This was an issue that got hashed out pretty well on this site. Wasn't like we were unaware Mahle's service time was getting burned and we might really want the guy come 2025.

That said...

If you were projecting that out of that group, Mahle would be the one to last until his sixth season (which he hasn't yet) then you deserve praise for your Nostradamus skills, because at the time he profiled way behind most of them.

You do realize I posted exactly that a whole bunch of times, right? Practically wore out a keyboard typing that Castillo and Mahle were likely the only two SPs who were going to emerge from all the young arms they flung into the rotation.

[Wonderful Monds]

That was all off the top of my head but I just looked it up:

Stephenson: looking like a bust or at least wildly mediocre as far back as 2014 still in the minor leagues. Held on to prospect status just by pure stuff at that point. Got called up and looked fairly not good in September 2016.

Garrett: called up, had a few good starts, got sent down, had a bunch of awful starts, sent to the pen never to return

Finnegan: looked pretty good but injured in back to back years. Made even fewer starts in 2017 and 18 than I thought.

Lamb: Had an ERA over 6 and obviously sucked right away, missed 2017 I think with the drug thing, pitched one more game in MLB for the Angels a year later and that was it. Clearly sucked after his first few appearances as a Red.

Cingrani: hadn’t been a starter since 2014 and had been a 4+ ERA reliever for years by that point. Complete non factor. Out of baseball after 2018 after clearly heading that direction for at least a couple seasons.

Lorenzen: started in 2015, had the shoulder injury, missed half of 2016 again with injury, was good that season but clearly cemented in the bullpen.

Reed: came over, got called up mid 2016, got bashed and looked like a dear in the headlights while doing it. Everyone was losing confidence already by the end of that season.

Romano: struggled to keep his ERA below 4 as a minor leaguer, was never considered much of a prospect. Whatever.

Mahle on the other hand was throwing no hitters and a perfect game in 2017 and came into 2018 as a top 100 prospect. By the time he was pitching more than a few games, the shine was way off all those other guys, not even speaking of the ones who were on their way out of the game, while Mahle was rising fast. Complete nonsense to say he was anywhere behind basically any of those dudes.

[mgbrown66]

Lodolo looks the part from the few innings I’ve seen this year. It’s been a long time coming for a dominant lefty on a reds mound.

[M2]

Lodolo looks the part from the few innings I’ve seen this year. It’s been a long time coming for a dominant lefty on a reds mound.

This is the thing I think needs to stressed about Lodolo. I don't think he'll have uninterrupted sailing upon entering the majors, but some people have tried to slap a MOR label on him and he absolutely has TOR potential. Among other things, I expect him to keep adding velo.

[redsfan9988]

Lodolo seems to have the pieces… solid build, good velocity, solid stuff. I don’t know if he’s TOR material… his ceiling is lower than Greene and (maybe) Williamson/Ashcraft, but I think his floor is higher. There’s very little bust potential here. He’s going to throw innings at the MLB level and get guys out - as a SP. I’m more confident in that path for Nick than for any other SP prospect in the system.

[757690]

That was all off the top of my head but I just looked it up:

Stephenson: looking like a bust or at least wildly mediocre as far back as 2014 still in the minor leagues. Held on to prospect status just by pure stuff at that point. Got called up and looked fairly not good in September 2016.

Garrett: called up, had a few good starts, got sent down, had a bunch of awful starts, sent to the pen never to return

Finnegan: looked pretty good but injured in back to back years. Made even fewer starts in 2017 and 18 than I thought.

Lamb: Had an ERA over 6 and obviously sucked right away, missed 2017 I think with the drug thing, pitched one more game in MLB for the Angels a year later and that was it. Clearly sucked after his first few appearances as a Red.

Cingrani: hadn’t been a starter since 2014 and had been a 4+ ERA reliever for years by that point. Complete non factor. Out of baseball after 2018 after clearly heading that direction for at least a couple seasons.

Lorenzen: started in 2015, had the shoulder injury, missed half of 2016 again with injury, was good that season but clearly cemented in the bullpen.

Reed: came over, got called up mid 2016, got bashed and looked like a dear in the headlights while doing it. Everyone was losing confidence already by the end of that season.

Romano: struggled to keep his ERA below 4 as a minor leaguer, was never considered much of a prospect. Whatever.

Mahle on the other hand was throwing no hitters and a perfect game in 2017 and came into 2018 as a top 100 prospect. By the time he was pitching more than a few games, the shine was way off all those other guys, not even speaking of the ones who were on their way out of the game, while Mahle was rising fast. Complete nonsense to say he was anywhere behind basically any of those dudes.

We are talking about where these pitchers were before they were called up to the majors. Most of them were ahead of, o.r at the very least, the same as Mahle before they were called up. That is when the decision must be made, not after they get called up.

The fact that most of them flamed out after they were called up proved my point. Thanks for the research that proves my point.

[757690]

If Lodolo makes it to his sixth season, it almost definitely will be with another team.

Adding that extra year of control will add to his trade value, but it will also create a potential rift between him and the Reds. Do this with every prospect and you have a clubhouse full of players who can’t wait to leave this organization.

[757690]

To make my point clearer, right now the Reds have 6 prospects near ready for the majors.

Lodolo
Greene
Ashcraft
Williamson
Sanmartin
McLain

Which ones are going to be productive in MLB in six years? Pick them right now. If you can’t, you need to manipulate all of their service time. That is going to go over great in the clubhouse.

[MikeS21]

This is the thing I think needs to stressed about Lodolo. I don't think he'll have uninterrupted sailing upon entering the majors, but some people have tried to slap a MOR label on him and he absolutely has TOR potential. Among other things, I expect him to keep adding velo.

I think the thing about Lodolo is that folks have been so misled by scouting prognosticators overhyping of Reds’ pitching prospects, and burned so many times that calling Lodolo a MOR guy is a way of tempering expectations. I always thought Lodolo had a higher ceiling than many folks gave him credit for. And if he can become a solid #2-#3 starter over the next six years, that’s a win. The one thing many folks forget is the mentality of pitching to major league hitters, and the learning curve that goes with it. I suspect that it will take Lodolo - and Greene - at least a couple seasons to figure out pitching as opposed to throwing.