2021-22 NBA playoffs, 2022 NBA off-season and 2022 NBA draft

[Betterread]

Blanchero, Smith and Holmgren are all very good prospects yet bring different skill packages. I think this looks like a good draft with good talent 1-25 and maybe more.
I just think the “too skinny” argument is not compelling in a league where Durant, Tatum, Morant, Curry are some of the top ten and they are all super skinny.

[M2]

Blanchero, Smith and Holmgren are all very good prospects yet bring different skill packages. I think this looks like a good draft with good talent 1-25 and maybe more.
I just think the “too skinny” argument is not compelling in a league where Durant, Tatum, Morant, Curry are some of the top ten and they are all super skinny.

Holmgren's a different kind of skinny. All of those other guys always had muscles. They were thin, but they were wiry. Holmgren's a collection of sticks.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Holmgren's a different kind of skinny. All of those other guys always had muscles. They were thin, but they were wiry. Holmgren's a collection of sticks.

Not sure that's true with Durant, but for the others, absolutely.

[M2]

Not sure that's true with Durant, but for the others, absolutely.

I looked up some young Durant pics to make sure he wasn't the outlier, and he had biceps and quad muscles visible to the human eye.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I looked up some young Durant pics to make sure he wasn't the outlier, and he had biceps and quad muscles visible to the human eye.

Indeed.

[M2]

Rookie season -



To be fair to Chet, maybe he's got that too. I'd say the one thing that Durant always had was he's explosive on the court. Is Chet? Legitimately don't know.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'd say the one thing that Durant always had was he's explosive on the court. Is Chet? Legitimately don't know.

I think that's Holmgren's biggest issue (aside from just getting manhandled by men). A lack of explosive plays mean he'll need to be very clever or develop moves to combat that. Then again, he's ridiculously tall with ridiculously long arms. How much explosion will he need?

[RedTeamGo!]

Shawn Bradley was really tall, couldn't do a damn thing in the NBA.

I watch a lot of Gonzaga, Chet tore apart teams in the WAC. When he faced better teams with bigger and better athletes he kind of disappeared, particularly on the offensive side.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Shawn Bradley was really tall, couldn't do a damn thing in the NBA.

Different game, and Holmgren is a far different player, despite their size similarity. Bradley had no offensive game at all; Holmgren's got a bag of tricks that should translate to the NBA-- if he's got enough heft to not get pushed out to the three-point line every play.

And Bradley wasn't a complete failure either. He was a solid to dominant defensive player for a decade. If that's Holmgren's floor (and I think it is), that's a super high floor.

[M2]

I think that's Holmgren's biggest issue (aside from just getting manhandled by men). A lack of explosive plays mean he'll need to be very clever or develop moves to combat that. Then again, he's ridiculously tall with ridiculously long arms. How much explosion will he need?

If he's going to have a career that justifies a #1 pick, I'd think that's pretty important. I'm under the impression he does not possess a Jokic amount of skill.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If he's going to have a career that justifies a #1 pick, I'd think that's pretty important. I'm under the impression he does not possess a Jokic amount of skill.

No one possesses a Jokic amount of skill.

But he's got the Dirk fadeaway and a really good handle.

[Rojo Rijo]

Game log for Holmgren, Smith, and Banchero against top opponents (10 games)

Holmgren
vs. Texas - 2 pts (1-3), 5 rbs, 1 asst, 2 blk, 0 STL, 0-0 3pt, 0 TO, 4 fouls (23 min)
vs. UCLA - 15 pts (6-8), 6 rbs, 0 asst, 1 blk, 1 STL, 2-4 3pt, 4 TO, 3 fouls (28 min)
vs. Duke - 16 pts (8-13), 7 rbs, 0 asst, 3 blk, 0 STL, 0-3 3pt, 3 TO, 3 fouls (29 min)
vs. Alabama - 10 pts (3-9), 11 rbs, 2 asst, 4 blk, 0 STL, 0-4 3pt, 0 TO, 1 foul (22 min)
vs. Texas Tech - 5 pts (1-4), 11 rbs, 2 asst, 3 blk, 0 STL, 1-3 3pt, 1 TO, 4 fouls (24 min)
vs. St. Marys - 11 pts (5-10), 13 rbs, 2 asst, 3 blk, 2 STL, 1-2 3pt, 2 TO, 2 fouls (35 min)
at. St. Marys - 6 pts (3-7), 6 rbs, 1 asst, 4 blk, 2 STL, 0-1 3 pt, 2 TO, 5 fouls (32 min)
vs. St. Marys - 8 pts (3-9), 8 rbs, 1 asst, 1 blk, 2 STL, 0-4 3 pt, 3 TO, 4 fouls (26 min)
vs. Memphis - 9 pts (4-7), 9 rbs, 2 asst, 4 blk, 0 STL, 0-3 3pt, 2 TO, 5 fouls (30 min)
vs. Arkansas - 11 pts (5-9), 14 rbs, 1 asst, 2 blk, 0 STL, 1-3 3pt, 1 TO, 5 fouls (23 min)

Average - 9.3 pts (3.9-7.9=.493), 9 rbs, 1.2 asst, 2.7 blk, 0.7 STL, 5-25 3pt (20%), 1.8 TO, 3.6 fouls (27.2 MPG)

Smith
vs. UConn - 22 pts (4-13), 6 rbs, 3 asst, 0 blk, 2 STL, 2-6 3pt, 2 TO, 5 fouls (39 min)
vs. LSU - 16 pts (5-12), 4 rbs, 1 asst, 1 blk, 1 STL, 2-8 3pt, 4 TO, 2 fouls (30 min)
at Alabama - 25 pts (8-14), 7 rbs, 1 asst, 4 blk, 2 STL, 3-6 3pt, 2 TO, 3 fouls (34 min)
at Arkansas - 20 pts (6-16), 9 rbs, 0 asst, 0 blk, 1 STL, 3-8 3pt, 2 TO, 4 fouls (32 min)
vs. Texas A&M - 9 pts (3-10), 8 rbs, 2 asst, 1 blk, 2 STL, 1-4 3pt, 4 TO, 1 foul (24 min)
vs. Kentucky - 14 pts (5-10), 7 rbs, 2 asst, 2 blk, 1 STL, 1-4 3pt, 2 TO, 2 fouls (29 min)
vs. Alabama - 17 pts (5-10), 5 rbs, 0 asst, 1 blk, 1 STL, 1-2 3pt, 1 TO, 3 fouls (24 min)
at Tennessee - 27 pts (9-21), 8 rbs, 0 asst, 2 blk, 0 STL, 3-9 3pt, 2 TO, 2 fouls (35 min)
vs. Texas A&M - 17 pts (5-16), 9 rbs, 4 asst, 1 blk, 2 STL, 3-10 3pt, 1 TO, 2 fouls (31 min)
v. Miami - 10 pts (3-16), 15 rbs, 4 asst, 3 blk, 0 STL, 1-8 3pt, 2 TO, 4 fouls (35 min)

Average - 17.7 pts (5.3-13.8=.384), 6.7 rbs, 1.6 asst, 1.2 blk, 1.2 STL, 19-65 (29%), 2.4 TO, 2.8 fouls (31.3 MPG)

Banchero
vs. Kentucky - 22 pts (7-11), 7 rbs, 0 asst, 0 blk, 2 STL, 0-3 3pt, 1 TO, 2 fouls (31 min)
vs. Gonzaga - 21 pts (8-17), 5 rbs, 2 asst, 0 blk, 1 STL, 3-8 3pt, 1 TO, 2 fouls (30 min)
at Ohio State - 14 pts (4-14), 5 rbs, 1 asst, 0 blk, 1 STL, 1-3 3pt, 3 TO, 4 fouls (35 min)
at Carolina - 13 pts (5-14), 10 rbs, 2 asst, 0 blk, 0 STL, 2-4 3pt, 1 TO, 2 fouls (31 min)
vs. Carolina - 23 pts (11-26), 5 rbs, 5 asst, 0 blk, 0 STL, 1-5 3pt, 4 TO, 2 fouls (38 min)
vs. Virginia Tech - 20 pts (8-11), 5 rbs, 1 asst, 1 blk, 0 STL, 0-1 3pt, 2 TO, 3 fouls (37 min)
vs. Michigan St - 19 pts (8-14), 7 rbs, 4 asst, 1 blk, 0 STL, 2-5 3pt, 5 TO, 3 fouls (38 min)
vs. Texas Tech - 22 pts (7-12), 4 rbs, 4 asst, 0 blk, 3 STL, 3-4 3pt, 1 TO, 0 fouls (37 min)
vs. Arkansas - 16 pts (4-11), 7 rbs, 3 asst, 1 blk, 1 STL, 1-2 3pt, 1 TO, 4 fouls (38 min)
vs. Carolina - 20 pts (8-17), 10 rbs, 2 asst, 2 blk, 0 STL, 2-4 3pt, 1 TO, 2 fouls (39 min)

Average - 19.0 pts (7.0-14.7=.476), 6.5 rbs, 2.4 asst, 0.5 blk, 0.9 STL, 15-39 3pt (38.4%) 2.0 TO, 2.4 fouls (35.4 mpg)

So you're looking at:
Chet - 9.3 ppg / 9.0 rpg / 1.2 apg / 2.7 bpg / 0.7 spg on .493 fgp and .200 3pt % over 27.2 mpg
Jabari - 17.7 ppg / 6.7 rpg / 1.6 apg / 1.2 bpg / 1.2 spg on .384 fgp and .290 3pt % over 31.3 mpg
Paolo - 19.0 ppg / 6.5 rpg / 2.4 apg / 0.5 bpg / 0.9 spg on .476 fgp and .384 3pt % over 35.4 mpg


Free throw %
Holmgren - 71.7% (71-99)
Smith - 79.9% (131-164)
Banchero - 72.9% (137-188)

These #s make Paolo look like the prize but he's clearly not on the same level as the other 2 defensively (and 5 of his 10 games were in the postseason where he played very well). Smith will be capable of defending anywhere on the floor and defense is Holmgrens calling card. Banchero on the other hand projects to be an average defender at best.

When you look at the complete package and consider their age - Jabari Smith 19.0, Chet Holmgren 20.0, Paolo Banchero 19.6 I just think Smith takes the top spot.

[Rojo Rijo]

For the Durant talk, he was a monster his one year at Texas.

25.8/11.1/1.3/1.9/1.9/2.8/2.0 on .505/.404/.816 over 35.9 mpg.

He also got to the line 256 times. As you see in my last post none of those guys came close to that. Durant had some sizing issues but those probably should've been pushed aside by the fact he was a cold blooded killer on the court.

[M2]

No one possesses a Jokic amount of skill.

But he's got the Dirk fadeaway and a really good handle.

But is that a #1 pick or a #7 pick?

[dubc47834]

Different game, and Holmgren is a far different player, despite their size similarity. Bradley had no offensive game at all; Holmgren's got a bag of tricks that should translate to the NBA-- if he's got enough heft to not get pushed out to the three-point line every play.

And Bradley wasn't a complete failure either. He was a solid to dominant defensive player for a decade. If that's Holmgren's floor (and I think it is), that's a super high floor.

Exactly...different era and different game for bigs. Bigs in Bradley's era were generally expected to bang down low. I'm not even sure that the athletic bigs had started arriving to the NBA yet. Bradley wasn't a bang down low guy because of his build. If he had Chets game, maybe he has a different career.