GM Nick Krall On The Reds 3-19 Start

[Old school 1983]

Disagree.

Hard disagree.

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Hard disagree.

Want to cite my entire post? The rest of it matters on the take you disagree with. I’ll provide the entire paragraph:

“I get your point. IMO Pham and Solano or even Moran and Drury weren’t bad signings. However, those are the type of guys you bring in to fill a need on a good team, not carry the offense.”

Pham put up 1.4 bWAR last year. Solano 1.1. They are legit MLB players. But as the entire paragraph states, those are the kind of guys you bring in to supplement/round out your team. Not to carry the middle of the order and the brunt of offensive load. Same with Moran. As a platoon guy, he’s ok. Near 800 ops against RHP. Drury seemed to find something last year and has carried it to this year. Those are not bad players. They are good guys to bring to your team. Just not in the role they were brought in here. Which leads to the second paragraph.

“I keep hearing about the As model and moneyball, but the dirty secret of a lot of those teams was that they had high end talent and the gaps were filled with platoons, and bounce backs and undervalued players. They had the big 3. Chavez, Tejada, Donaldson, Olson and Chapman just to name a few off the top of my head. The Reds need to bring in elite offensive talent and fill in the pieces around it with guys like Solano and Pham. Not count on them to carry the team.”

Basically good players. Good signings. But wrong context. I agree with WK that deep down or not even so deep down, Krall knew this year was a punt. He grabbed those guys to try to catch lighting in a bottle, and, instead he got a bottle full of septic water.

Based on the moves they did, it’s pretty clear they were building for the next two seasons and were trying to get the kids experience while hoping to catch some magic. Those guys aren’t bad signings, they are just having way more expected of them than what should be. Like I said. Go get elite players this coming off-season

[mth123]

You are making the same faulty assumption that everyone here is making, that these moves were made with 2022 in mind. They were part of a larger effort to redesign the Reds into a lower payroll team that relies on young, cheap players. With so many bad contracts on the books, it was going to be ugly no matter what was done. They were going to have to cut out a chunk of the 2022 team.

Concerning the Winker/Suarez, Pham/Minor moves, they may be a wash payroll wise, but the Reds added two top pitching prospects and two young, cheap, role players with many years of team control. Pham and Minor were signed to help the 2022 team not suck so bad. That hasn't worked, but not because of those moves. Pham has been solid, and while Minor has been hurt, none of the possible replacements, Miley, Gray or Cueto, have been healthy enough to contribute this season yet either. My guess is none of the four produce much this season.

Krall's moves look real bad right now, but it's only 22 games into this season, a season that the moves weren't focused on anyway.

I reserve judgement on those pitching prospects. I'm not really impressed actually. Pham hasn't really been solid. He has a .703 OPS and has made some stupid outs on the bases and unwise choices in the OF. He looks good because everyone is slumping, but a .703 OPS from the number 3 hitter in LF isn't solid. Its more of the same declining mid-30s player he's been the last two years. Players like that go to terrible teams to play out the string and fade away. Like the Pirates. The Reds have become the Pirates.

I'm not down with those moves doing much for the future of the Reds. I get the idea of adding a young cheap foundation. I think the execution was terrible. Do you know what would have been a good way to build for the future, signing Jesse Winker to anchor the line-up or dealing him for a real return that wasn't dragged down by coupling him with Suarez (whose contract isn't even all that bad). They gave them a payroll number to hit and Krall peed his pants in anxiety trying to get there IMO. Dealing your best bat and ending up with a couple of C+ prospects isn't building a foundation for the future, its a Pittsburgh death spiral.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Want to cite my entire post? The rest of it matters on the take you disagree with. I’ll provide the entire paragraph:

Why? I disagree that they're good moves.

[Kc61]

You are making the same faulty assumption that everyone here is making, that these moves were made with 2022 in mind. They were part of a larger effort to redesign the Reds into a lower payroll team that relies on young, cheap players. With so many bad contracts on the books, it was going to be ugly no matter what was done. They were going to have to cut out a chunk of the 2022 team.

Concerning the Winker/Suarez, Pham/Minor moves, they may be a wash payroll wise, but the Reds added two top pitching prospects and two young, cheap, role players with many years of team control. Pham and Minor were signed to help the 2022 team not suck so bad. That hasn't worked, but not because of those moves. Pham has been solid, and while Minor has been hurt, none of the possible replacements, Miley, Gray or Cueto, have been healthy enough to contribute this season yet either. My guess is none of the four produce much this season.

Krall's moves look real bad right now, but it's only 22 games into this season, a season that the moves weren't focused on anyway.

The Reds could have re-tooled, re-designed, rebuilt, whatever you call it, without hitting rock bottom again.

Based on everything I’ve read, including from Reds’ own comments, this path was chosen to limit payroll as much as possible. With some poor personnel decisions along the way.

[Old school 1983]

I get the anger at getting rid or Winker and letting Castellanos walk. Think about it this way. Cast wanted 20M a year. And To extend Winker after last year probably runs you like 15M a year. Winker and Cast were excellent last year. I don’t think they could have hit any better than they did. Likely peak offensive performances. Yet still. Winker 2.7 bWAR. Cast 3.2 bWAR. That’s in years where they probably peaked out what they could do with the bat. They fall back a little and you’re looking at a ton of jack for Winker 1-1.5 bWAR or for Cast 2-2.5bWAR. There are run of the mill guys or even scrap head guys that can do that available every year. Guys like you know Solano and Pham. And yes. I get the $10M per WAR is market value stuff. So, with the budgetary constraints the Reds have, you want to pay too dollar to guys that barely give you above the market value of the deal. To me it seems like a better bet to spend a little more money on higher quality guys that if they fall off a little bit, they are still producing peak Winker and Cast bWAR. And if they have an avocet average season, they are way above their dollar to bWAR value ratio. In other words, don’t give big money to guys who, if they drop off a tad, pretty much put up journeyman numbers. Give a little more for guys that have the possibility to be extremely better.

[757690]

The Reds could have re-tooled, re-designed, rebuilt, whatever you call it, without hitting rock bottom again.

Based on everything I’ve read, including from Reds’ own comments, this path was chosen to limit payroll as much as possible. With some poor personnel decisions along the way.

I've commented on why they are so bad right now, and the offseason moves play the smallest part in that. It mostly is because of how ownership has handled everything, especially the comments made before the home opener. I can't imagine any group of players responding well to that. And of course, an insane number of injuries.

Regardless, the offseason moves look bad if you only if you judge them solely with 2022 in mind. Looking at them long term, and they makes sense. I am rather certain these moves will improve with time.

[757690]

I reserve judgement on those pitching prospects. I'm not really impressed actually. Pham hasn't really been solid. He has a .703 OPS and has made some stupid outs on the bases and unwise choices in the OF. He looks good because everyone is slumping, but a .703 OPS from the number 3 hitter in LF isn't solid. Its more of the same declining mid-30s player he's been the last two years. Players like that go to terrible teams to play out the string and fade away. Like the Pirates. The Reds have become the Pirates.

I'm not down with those moves doing much for the future of the Reds. I get the idea of adding a young cheap foundation. I think the execution was terrible. Do you know what would have been a good way to build for the future, signing Jesse Winker to anchor the line-up or dealing him for a real return that wasn't dragged down by coupling him with Suarez (whose contract isn't even all that bad). They gave them a payroll number to hit and Krall peed his pants in anxiety trying to get there IMO. Dealing your best bat and ending up with a couple of C+ prospects isn't building a foundation for the future, its a Pittsburgh death spiral.

They didn't get C+ prospects. They got 3 solid pitching prospects, all top draft picks with elite arms, all in the 100 top prospect category. Odds are the Reds will get a solid started and a reliever out of these three. They add to an already deep farm system, and that is the goal, deepen the farm. The more prospects, the higher the odds that some will develop into MLB players.

[REDREAD]

No argument here. I'm going off the idea that the Reds ownership basically punted on 2022 anyways. These were solid fill the gap, try to keep baseball interested for a few months, and flip them at the deadline

That was not the plan at all There's no way a contender is going to see Pham, Solano, Moran, Minor, or Drury as a great add for a pennant chase. Every year, there's far better players given away for nothing at the deadline. These guys were not acquired to flip at the deadline. Just watch, the trade deadline will come, and if they are traded, it will be for nothing or just salary relief. More than likely, no one wants them and they finish the year as Reds.

Ownership sucks, but Krall deserves some blame too. If nothing else, when the fans got mad and he got extra money to spend, how about acquiring a useful starting pitcher instead of Minor?
Why not approach another tanking club that is anxious to cut loose young talent that's about to be expensive? He could trade the guys he got in his trades for someone else's good players. Or trade
someone from our farm. The only thing dumber he could have done was not spend the money at all. Yea, these filler guys will get the Reds a few more wins this year, but then they are gone.
That is not a plan. That is a panic move. Also, Seattle approached Krall with idea of packaging Suarez in with Winker and getting junk instead of a good return.. and Krall accepted that idea.
Ownership didn't force him to do that. Krall did that.. He could have gotten more for Winker. There was money to keep Suarez if he had to. Krall is on board with the salary cutting, in fact, one theory is that by dumping Suarez, he went above and beyond what ownership asked him to cut. I Can't prove it, but that's a reasonable theory.

[REDREAD]

The front office gets plenty of blame. They are responsible for the personnel. I doubt Bob or Phil insisted that Sanmartin be the fill-in starter. Or that Reds choose Mike Minor to sign (currently with a sore shoulder).

Yep, Krall was given a budget, like all GMs do, and he made a bunch of bad moves. He needs to own that.

[REDREAD]

When you have to cut a big chunk of salary, there's only so many ways in which you can do it. Were all well aware that Castellini has insisted on certain guys not being traded in the past too, further complicating things.
.

He didn't know that Winker, Suarez, Gray, Miley (aka Hulk) were fan favorites?
Also, we heard rumors swirling about Castillo and Mahle being available too, so they weren't protected.

Maybe Krall wasn't allowed to trade Greene, Lodollo, Tyler or India, but I can't imagine any one else being off limits.
In fact, I bet ownership would have had no problem attaching Greene and Lodollo to Moose to get rid of that contract.

[REDREAD]

If it was that in vacuum I’d agree. But the lockout occurred m between. I have a feeling he was told to cut dollars prior to the lockout, and that was the easiest way to do it. After the lockout, they moved more money, plus they knew they would actually play games, so the money opened back up. It’s use on Minor, considering his injury, is pretty moronic. But the whole they had Minor when they could have had Miley thing isn’t a one to one match unless it’s in hindsight. And we’ll..no matter which one they had, they’d still be shelved.

So they decided to cut salary and take the easiest path to do it, then "the money opened back up".
How is that a plan? That seems like the worst possible way to execute an offseason.

Only 3 possible reasons why money "opened up"
1. Fans got pissed, so owners upped the budget
2. Krall cut more payroll than he had to , so he had some payflex. He actually thinks this is what "Rebuilding" is.
3. The owners do not have a budget, everything is done by the seat of their pants. No plan.

So they either had no plan/budget (just reactionary) or Krall is incompetent.. or both.

[kaldaniels]

I guess this as good a place as any to post.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Reds/commen...e_against_the/

[MoneyInTheBank]

My biggest issue is the doctors that gave the go ahead on the Minor deal (Justin Dunn too, but less of an issue because he was a throw in). With some of the recent injury history in the organization and its poor handling, you'd think Dr. Nick was in charge of things.

As far as we've been told, there was no pre-existing injury and there is no injury now. Not sure we can blame this one on the docs

[Coopdaddy67]

He didn't know that Winker, Suarez, Gray, Miley (aka Hulk) were fan favorites?
Also, we heard rumors swirling about Castillo and Mahle being available too, so they weren't protected.

Maybe Krall wasn't allowed to trade Greene, Lodollo, Tyler or India, but I can't imagine any one else being off limits.
In fact, I bet ownership would have had no problem attaching Greene and Lodollo to Moose to get rid of that contract.

The issue is trading guys solely to get out from under contracts and using assets to do that rather than eating salary. There's no way in hell they were going to use Greene or Lodolo as a way to unload Moustakas, Suarez, etc. The fan base would have revolted. Even this ownership group isn't that stupid.

Trading the likes of Castillo and Mahle at least makes baseball sense, provided you're getting a premium return and not using them as a vehicle to get rid of another bad contract.

I actually think Castellini was most surprised by the media tearing him apart, both locally and nationally. I don't think he expected the kind of pushback he's gotten the past few months. He has to know that everybody hates his guts.

[Kc61]

Regardless, the offseason moves look bad if you only if you judge them solely with 2022 in mind. Looking at them long term, and they makes sense. I am rather certain these moves will improve with time.

Reds just had a four-year gut rebuild. Lost over 90 each season. We all looked to the long term. Not again, nope. Team owed the fans better than another tear down. There is no silver lining to this off-season.