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Thread: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

  1. #1
    Member KeefeCato's Avatar
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    In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    How well do you think a healthy future rotation of
    Greene
    Lodolo
    Ashcraft and
    Williamson fare?

    I know it's a longshot they will all be healthy and productive.
    But lets dream and say they all put together a couple healthy seasons. Would they be above, below or league average as a rotation in your opinion?

    Throw in a Veteran innings eater to fill out the rotation. Maybe Overton? But he is soon to be 29 and I hope to be wrong but I think he is a time bomb and the smoke is about to explode. Maybe he will continue success and is a late bloomer. He will be 29 soon. But low k/9 guys usually don't fare well long term.


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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Next year if you want to go the all in house route.

    Greene
    Lodolo
    Ashcraft
    Abbott or Williamson
    Antone

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Mahle could still be in there next year if we think we have a shot to be good. At least until the deadline.

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    KeefeCato (05-23-2022)

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Next year if you want to go the all in house route.

    Greene
    Lodolo
    Ashcraft
    Abbott or Williamson
    Antone
    Antone is a interesting option to start. One I hadn't thought about. Teams need a minimum of 8 options these days and more like 10. With all the pitching injuries.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    Mahle could still be in there next year if we think we have a shot to be good. At least until the deadline.
    He very well could be. I was thinking more like two years down the road.

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    Old school 1983 (05-23-2022)

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeefeCato View Post
    Antone is a interesting option to start. One I hadn't thought about. Teams need a minimum of 8 options these days and more like 10. With all the pitching injuries.

    - - - Updated - - -



    He very well could be. I was thinking more like two years down the road.
    Whatever they do with him, his role needs to be consistent. If he’s a reliever. 1 or 2 innings max. No more go 4 2 times a week. I would see what he has as a starter. The guy reminded me of peak Jake Arrieta when he was healthy

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    KeefeCato (05-23-2022)

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    I believe this team has a chance to win the division next year if the rotation is Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo and one other, maybe Ashcraft, Overton, FA acquisition, maybe even Minor. So if the FO decides to trade for prospects, that certainly makes one kind of sense, but, IMO, they will do so at the expense of contention next year.

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I believe this team has a chance to win the division next year if the rotation is Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo and one other, maybe Ashcraft, Overton, FA acquisition, maybe even Minor. So if the FO decides to trade for prospects, that certainly makes one kind of sense, but, IMO, they will do so at the expense of contention next year.
    That rotation healthy would with out a doubt could win the division. But I would say 100% chance one of Castillo or Mahle will be traded in July. And 75% chance they both will be.

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    If Krall and Red ownership decides to go as cheap as possible with the rotation, I expect they'll struggle to match the 2020 and 2021 seasons. I suspect they'll be slightly below average as a group and perhaps much worse depending on injury or struggles to throw strikes. Young guys need at least one veteran, IMO, from which to learn. (That's why Sonny Gray was such a great acquisition. And a bitter loss.)

    I do think Greene has such a high upside that he'll end up being fine. He needs to learn how to limit his HRs, especially with runners on. He also needs to limit his walks. Fortunately, he didn't have a massive issue with walks in his minor league career-- I think he'll end up more than acceptable and one of the better starters in the league.

    Lodolo might well be okay, but I worry about the physicality of pitching and his frame. He's struggled to stay healthy for a couple of seasons now. That's not ideal. Antone is in the same boat. Were I GM, I'd likely have one spot for the two of them-- if they can both stay healthy, all the better for your team.

    I do like Graham Ashcraft quite a bit and think he might be underrated by most prognosticators and Red fans here on RedsZone. I worry about his surgically-repaired hips and his heavy frame. I wonder if he can withstand pitching long innings for five or six years. I wouldn't count on him, at any rate, until he could show me 180 innings without breaking down.

    Abbott seems really solid, but his stuff is slightly short. I think he might well end up a Mike Leake type-- lots of innings just slightly better than league average. As a lefty, he does provide a different viewpoint. Really like that.

    Williamson has struggled to throw strikes. That worries me. He should be dominating AA, but that's not been the case. Hoping to see him blossom a bit as the season wears on.

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    KeefeCato (05-23-2022)

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    They can and should be adding some major league arms (ie like they did Gray, Bauer, Miley) to that group. Maybe if they are lucky they get like 2 good pitchers out of all of these guys, so they need to add at least 2 staters from the outside, and maybe use the 5th spot at most for the rest.

    They've done it in the recent past, and they have the payflex and prospect capital to do it again as soon as next offseason. And they should.
    Last edited by CaiGuy; 05-23-2022 at 04:11 PM.

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    KeefeCato (05-23-2022),mth123 (05-23-2022)

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    They can and should be adding some major league arms (ie like they did Gray, Bauer, Miley) to that group. Maybe if they are lucky they get like 2 good pitchers out of all of these guys, so they need to add at least 2 staters from the outside, and maybe use the 5th spot at most for the rest.

    They've done it in the recent past, and they have the payflex and prospect capital to do it again as soon as next offseason. And they should.
    Agreed. I think they will need to trade a couple of these young arms for a bat or two. A rotation filled with kids all at the same time never works anyway. The best way to churn is one per season. The Reds just turned-over two spots with Miley and Gray and now the thought is two more with Castillo and Mahle traded all within the same year. If they do that, they need to brng in a couple of established arms and avoid the tryout camp approach we saw in 2016 through 2018.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-24-2022 at 09:03 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The best way to churn is one per season.
    You can't call your year, mostly.

    If Andrew Abbott continues to dominate, for example, Graham Ashcraft, and Brandon Williamson all show they're ready at the beginning of 2023, I'm fine with the Reds bringing them all up.

    Some might end up in the bullpen or piggybacking starts, of course.

    I do agree that veteran arms are needed in a rotation and bullpen.

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    You can't call your year, mostly.

    If Andrew Abbott continues to dominate, for example, Graham Ashcraft, and Brandon Williamson all show they're ready at the beginning of 2023, I'm fine with the Reds bringing them all up.

    Some might end up in the bullpen or piggybacking starts, of course.

    I do agree that veteran arms are needed in a rotation and bullpen.
    I'd be fine having them all compete for one spot. Pick the best one and let him have first crack at it. Opening a bunch of spots in the rotation and handing them over to kids, who we know have a high failure rate, is the best way to have a lousy rotation. Pick one, trade one and keep one in reserve.

    In your example, I guess Ashcraft gets first crack at it since he's already here. I think Abbott has the best chance at Success. Williamson is a guy I'd add to a deal with some one like Minor or whoever in order to get a better prospect back.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    I'd love to see them add one really solid, stable 3/4 type starter. This is assuming Lodolo is in good health (if he's not, they'll need 2 FA SP).

    That would give them:

    Greene
    Lodolo
    Free Agent/Trade acquisition
    Ashcraft
    Abbott
    Williamson
    Dunn
    Spiers
    Overton

    That is a very solid pool to work from for 2023. 9 guys should be enough to procure an interesting, and potentially good, rotation. It should even leave you with a strong swingman or 2. All of this is in-house aside from the free-agent acquisition.

    What I'd really love to see sorted out this season (rather than the first half of 2023) is - which guys should be shifted to the bullpen? Ashcraft could very well be a guy who is better suited as an elite setup man. I'd move Dunn to perma-pen as well. It's fair to assume they try Antone there next season as well. Santillan, Diaz and Solomon look like long-term options. Still no lefties! Gotta resolve that in these upcoming trades.
    Last edited by Mitri; 05-24-2022 at 09:50 AM.

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'd be fine having them all compete for one spot. Pick the best one and let him have first crack at it. Opening a bunch of spots in the rotation and handing them over to kids, who we know have a high failure rate, is the best way to have a lousy rotation. Pick one, trade one and keep one in reserve.

    In your example, I guess Ashcraft gets first crack at it since he's already here. I think Abbott has the best chance at Success. Williamson is a guy I'd add to a deal with some one like Minor or whoever in order to get a better prospect back.
    I just don't think you can be that rigid in creating a team roster. If they believe all three kids are ready and can help at the major league level, they should bring them up-- and let them pitch in the spot they can believe they'll provide the most help/ value.

    As to trades, if they can get value for Williamson and are willing to sign a good veteran arm, that's fine with me. I don't think they'll be willing to sign the going rate for real help or deal Williamson for as much as they paid for him.

    Might as well, then, let him help if they believe he's ready.

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    Re: In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

    i'm pretty optimistic we could have a very good rotation in 2024 (keep in mind the reds should be able to add to their pitching arsenal when/if they trade castillo and/or mahle). they could also add a #4 starter type on a one-year deal via free agency (something like $10M).

    that would give the reds a pitching staff that would include but would not be limited to:
    * greene
    * lodolo
    * ashcraft
    * williamson
    * abbott
    * phillips
    * pitcher from castillo trade (i'd like to see the reds get a near-MLB ready pitcher and OF for luis)
    * pitcher from mahle trade (ditto)
    * free agent

    that's 9 options right there for 5 spots.

    also, there is the possibility the reds could take a college pitcher with the 18th or 32nd picks in the draft this year. a college pitcher taken that high could be ready by 2024. that would be a 10th option.

    yeah, color me optimistic about the future of the reds' pitching staff. probably won't come together until 2024 though.

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