Extending Castillo

[kaldaniels]

Not really.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Statcast has him with a .747 xOPS. Only 6 barrels so far this year, 4% compared to 11% last year. He also has lower exit velocity and higher launch angle.

I know he will hit eventually, but he’s in a genuine slump right now.

I think you are using his WOBA to somehow calculate his xOBP.

I mean his xBA is .301 and his xSLG is .455 so I don’t see how his xOPS could be .747.

[757690]

I think you are using his WOBA to somehow calculate his xOBP.

I mean his xBA is .301 and his xSLG is .455 so I don’t see how his xOPS could be .747.

Thanks for the correction.

But the numbers still show that he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he has the last two seasons. He’s hitting more like he did when he started his career with a .845 OPS. Better than his .641 OPS, but with his defense and baserunning, not exactly someone a team would covet.

[kaldaniels]

Thanks for the correction.

But the numbers still show that he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he has the last two seasons. He’s hitting more like he did when he started his career with a .845 OPS. Better than his .641 OPS, but with his defense and baserunning, not exactly someone a team would covet.

Then I respectfully ask you to see what I wrote before the rebuttal came in.

“He hasn’t been bad, he’s been unlucky.”

I do believe that to be very accurate when one accounts for his xBA, xSLG and walk rate.

The narrative around most places seems to be that Winker has been bad this year. I don’t believe that to be the case. He hasn’t been vintage Winker, no doubt.

But I’d love for there to be a way for him to come home to Cincinnati. Defense and base running be damned in his case. Now if we still had Castellanos I’d probably pass on Winker but I think we have room for one big bat/no defense guy here. And that’s acknowledging he probably (IS!) is best used vs RHP.

[757690]

Then I respectfully ask you to see what I wrote before the rebuttal came in.

“He hasn’t been bad, he’s been unlucky.”

I do believe that to be very accurate when one accounts for his xBA, xSLG and walk rate.

The narrative around most places seems to be that Winker has been bad this year. I don’t believe that to be the case. He hasn’t been vintage Winker, no doubt.

But I’d love for there to be a way for him to come home to Cincinnati. Defense and base running be damned in his case. Now if we still had Castellanos I’d probably pass on Winker but I think we have room for one big bat/no defense guy here. And that’s acknowledging he probably (IS!) is best used vs RHP.

He hasn’t just been unlucky. He has had trouble barreling up the ball, hitting it softer, and fewer line drives. Remember, he has a strong week, so all these numbers were much worse for most of the season. That’s my only point. You can’t blame his poor start on luck alone.

That said, I have always said that he will hit and it looks like he is starting to.

[HokieRed]

4th guy in the deal being the real target? Shades of Brian Reith.

I don't take it that the PTBNL business was anything but some gamesmanship going on.

[Kc61]

But I’d love for there to be a way for him to come home to Cincinnati. Defense and base running be damned in his case. Now if we still had Castellanos I’d probably pass on Winker but I think we have room for one big bat/no defense guy here. And that’s acknowledging he probably (IS!) is best used vs RHP.

Winker is on the Castillo/Mahle free agency timeline. He’s getting $7 million now, one more arb year, then FA after 2023. IMO Reds decided that they weren’t going to extend him. Same calculus as Castillo and Mahle, as some have opined in this thread.

They wouldn’t extend him because of his limited skill set. He’s a great lefty DH, but I don’t think Reds wanted to drop big dollars on that. And they were in a salary reducing mode.

So they traded him when he had good value. We can debate the use of that value to dump Suarez. Questionable. But in any event, Wink wasn’t a long-term keeper.

It’s notable that they traded Winker and (so far) not Mahle or Castillo. That suggests to me - perhaps - that Reds were driving a harder bargain for the starting pitchers.

[kaldaniels]

Winker is on the Castillo/Mahle free agency timeline. He’s getting $7 million now, one more arb year, then FA after 2023. IMO Reds decided that they weren’t going to extend him. Same calculus as Castillo and Mahle, as some have opined in this thread.

They wouldn’t extend him because of his limited skill set. He’s a great lefty DH, but I don’t think Reds wanted to drop big dollars on that. And they were in a salary reducing mode.

So they traded him when he had good value. We can debate the use of that value to dump Suarez. Questionable. But in any event, Wink wasn’t a long-term keeper.

It’s notable that they traded Winker and (so far) not Mahle or Castillo. That suggests to me - perhaps - that Reds were driving a harder bargain for the starting pitchers.

It’s a matter of opinion whether to wish for him but Wink was a top-5 bat vs RHP and that’s a weapon I’d like to have.

I know he’s not coming back and my comment about plotting for him to come back was tongue-in-cheek. But I do wish he was still here.

[Kc61]

It’s a matter of opinion whether to wish for him but Wink was a top-5 bat vs RHP and that’s a weapon I’d like to have.

I know he’s not coming back and my comment about plotting for him to come back was tongue-in-cheek. But I do wish he was still here.

It’s a matter of opinion, but the Reds’ opinion seems clear. They could have attached Suarez to Mahle or some other combo of assets. They chose to move Winker, which IMO reflects their views on his future with the club.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Winker is on the Castillo/Mahle free agency timeline. He’s getting $7 million now, one more arb year, then FA after 2023. IMO Reds decided that they weren’t going to extend him. Same calculus as Castillo and Mahle, as some have opined in this thread.

They wouldn’t extend him because of his limited skill set. He’s a great lefty DH, but I don’t think Reds wanted to drop big dollars on that. And they were in a salary reducing mode.

So they traded him when he had good value. We can debate the use of that value to dump Suarez. Questionable. But in any event, Wink wasn’t a long-term keeper.

It’s notable that they traded Winker and (so far) not Mahle or Castillo. That suggests to me - perhaps - that Reds were driving a harder bargain for the starting pitchers.

Looks like trading Suarez that way looks very foolish(lowest value). Suarez has a 1.0 fwar .7 bwar so far this year and is on pace to be an above average starter (4.0 fwar 2.8 bwar)

[westofyou]

Looks like trading Suarez that way looks very foolish(lowest value). Suarez has a 1.0 fwar .7 bwar so far this year and is on pace to be an above average starter (4.0 fwar 2.8 bwar)

He might continue this year at least. I've seen the Mariners more than most on this board and he's looking a lot like he has the in the last two years much of the time. He's really turned into a feast or famine slugger since he made the AS team in 2018 and currently is K'ing 30% of his PA's. He's lost a lot base hits and added a lot of swings and misses. It's classic ballplayer aging

So while he might prove to be a good investment his year and he's a good guy so that would be great for him (and the M's) but I'm always hearing the Branch Rickey say, "It's better to trade a man a year early than a year too late."


2014-2018

BB/PA - 10.7
K/PA - 4.2
381 - singles
207 - EBH

2019-2022

BB/PA - 9.3
K/PA - 3.4
200 - singles
166 - EBH

[InsaneinthBrame]

He might continue this year at least. I've seen the Mariners more than most on this board and he's looking a lot like he has the in the last two years much of the time. He's really turned into a feast or famine slugger since he made the AS team in 2018 and currently is K'ing 30% of his PA's. He's lost a lot base hits and added a lot of swings and misses. It's classic ballplayer aging

So while he might prove to be a good investment his year and he's a good guy so that would be great for him (and the M's) but I'm always hearing the Branch Rickey say, "It's better to trade a man a year early than a year too late."


2014-2018

BB/PA - 10.7
K/PA - 4.2
381 - singles
207 - EBH

2019-2022

BB/PA - 9.3
K/PA - 3.4
200 - singles
166 - EBH

I am not sure what that has to do with the Reds selling low on him. He was bound to be better this year. He is hitting is what MLB has become I am not sure it all aging. Suarez has almost already earned his 10M salary and we have 3/4s of a year to go.
Why are you lumping this year with last two. This year hitting is down so with where he is hitting he is worth more hence the better WAR

[westofyou]

I am not sure what that has to do with the Reds selling low on him. He was bound to be better this year. He is hitting is what MLB has become I am not sure it all aging. Suarez has almost already earned his 10M salary and we have 3/4s of a year to go.
Why are you lumping this year with last two. This year hitting is down so with where he is hitting he is worth more hence the better WAR

Lumping it because it's a trend and his game has changed and that's an observation I think drove the trade. That's why.

As for selling low not sure I can speak to that since it seems that was the only offer that was out there and I can't compare something that's not defined by the marketplace, plus all trades are residual beyond 6 weeks of a season, I prefer to make judgement later on how bad or good it was.

[Kc61]

I’m pretty down on 30% strikeout hitters. So I’m not upset that they traded Suarez. But the timing was sub-optimal. I had hoped they would hold both Suarez and Moose and look for trades a bit later on, when some value was (hopefully) restored.

In both cases, the value would seem higher today than this past off-season, both are doing better.

[RedsManRick]

Moose is providing what the Reds expected from him, .343 OBP, .749 OPS, so it is unlikely the Reds would want to trade him at this point.

I do not think the Reds want to be spending ~15% of their total 2023 payroll and a $4M 2024 buyout on an average-at-best player. The fact that he's actually hitting this year only makes it more likely that they'll be able to move him. And even then, I'm not sure which team is going to take that money on.

[Old school 1983]

I do not think the Reds want to be spending ~15% of their total 2023 payroll and a $4M 2024 buyout on an average-at-best player. The fact that he's actually hitting this year only makes it more likely that they'll be able to move him. And even then, I'm not sure which team is going to take that money on.

If there’s a possibility to move him they need to. Even if it means they eat some of the salary. I really hope no one of significance is attached to him. Even if they can free up some of his money, use it towards more impactful pieces next year.